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Free Agent Talk

Posted on 12/19/12 at 9:48 am
Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 9:48 am
Time to start looking at the landscape of what names could be brought in. The draft talk is all very fluid until we see what happens there.

First, who is likely to go or must have major pay cuts? The Saints currently have the second highest projected salaries next year and are several million over the projected cap. So fat will have to be cut out of necessity.

Will Smith- Cap hit $14.5+, will cost $2-5.5mil to cut but save $9mil, hard to see him back even cheap. Same age Osi or Freeney could be stopgap replacements for less. Avril or Michael Johnnson if they wanna spend bigger for someone to be the pass rushing answer.

Vilma- Cap hit $6.5mil, will cost $500K-1.7mil to cut but save $4.8mil, love his smarts & leadership but with play clearly in decline will have to take massive reduction to be worth his production IMO. Not seeing a lot of WLB UFA potential. Shaun Phillips is the only one that I've seen for good price/production possibility. Connor Barwin but I count Houston tagging him before letting him hit the market.

Harper- cap hit the next two years- $15mil, about $4mil to cut him and save $11+mil. I'm a Harper supporter for his quality of play. It just isn't up to his 9th highest paid safety contract. He's above average but not with the guys he shares pay class with- Polamalu, Weddle, Goldson, etc. Wouldn't forecast a cut but extend and reduce the hit. Would you rather UFA William Moore from the dirty birds?

David Thomas- has filled his role but always dinged up it seems. $2.2mil cap hit, $500-700K to cut, save $1.5mil Might be time for a cheaper, younger, and healthier backup

Jabari Greer- like him but he'll be 31 next year. Cap hit for next 3 yrs- $17+mil, $4-5mil to cut, save almost $12mil. Would like and expect him back but younger and cheaper might be necessitated.

It's rough looking cap-wise. A bunch of guys cap numbers escalate in big steps. In $millions:
Brees 10.4 to 17.4
Colston 3.3 to 6.6
Lance 2.3 to 4.5
Lofton 1.7 to 7.1
Hawthorne 1.5 to 4.8
Bunkley 1.6 to 4.7
Grubbs 2.7 to 7.3
Evans 3.4 to 10
Dayum, that's $36mil more, over 25% of the team cap, just in pay raises

Biggest re-up costs would be extending Graham and a new deal for Bushrod. LT is a huge question. Bushmaster back, Brown ready?, a different UFA (Clady, Albert, Long, etc?), or a 1st Rd step in for 10yrs (Lewan, Fisher, Matthews).

Who goes, stays, and who comes in?



This post was edited on 12/19/12 at 9:54 am
Posted by Thracken13
Aft Cargo Hold of Serenity
Member since Feb 2010
18907 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 10:12 am to
I could see Osi playing here in place of Smith, Freeney im personally leery of, not really sure why - maybe just a gut feeling.
Posted by Suntiger
STG or BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
36237 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 10:29 am to
quote:

who is likely to go or must have major pay cuts?


I think we all know the usual suspects. Vilma, Harper and Will Smith. And I wouldn't doubt they would take pay cuts either.


DE - There are a lot of better DEs available in free agency (Avril, Osi and M. Johnson) which makes Smith very expendable. I think this is the positon we need to spend money on this year. But lets not forget that getting a DE in the draft is a posibility too. Drafting Will Smith in 2006 made Darren Howard expendable.


SS - Y'all already know I want Loomis to steal William Moore from the Falcons. He could be a more than suitable long term replacement for Harper. Solid player and weakens a division opponent. Win/Win


OLB - Linebacker is a little more tricky unless we get someone in the draft.
quote:

Shaun Phillips is the only one that I've seen for good price/production possibility.

Isn't he 40 years old?
quote:

Connor Barwin

Not likely to hit free agency from what I've read.



Not sure about Thomas, but Greer isn't going anywhere and won't take a pay cut IMO.
Posted by Suntiger
STG or BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
36237 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 10:34 am to
quote:

I could see Osi playing here


I just think he's going to want too much money and some team somewhere is going to give it to him. I could see a team like the Raiders making him a huge offer.

quote:

Freeney im personally leery of, not really sure why -


Age
Injury
Inability to play the run
Salary
Posted by Jrock87
NOLA
Member since Jul 2008
1795 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 10:39 am to
Smith and Vilma are gone, IMO
Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 10:39 am to
DE- A vet with more speed rush than Smith that won't be a bank breaker (like Osi or Freeney) along with a Montgomery would be a great reload at the position. Remember when CB seemd to be the void forever. It may not be shutdown but it has been a while since it has been the perpetual need spot. Johnson would be a big commitment move. I like where he is at for plucking career/development-wise.

Jordan, Osi or Freeny, Montgomery, Galette, & Wilson as a group would be change the pass rush void majorly.

I like the idea of taking Moore from the dirty birds but don't expect a Harper cut. Praying for a renegotiated deal tho.

Phillips 32 but still has some good game left. Cuz of age he wouldn't be cost prohibitive.
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
76645 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 10:57 am to
quote:

Brees 10.4 to 17.4
Colston 3.3 to 6.6
Lance 2.3 to 4.5
Lofton 1.7 to 7.1
Hawthorne 1.5 to 4.8
Bunkley 1.6 to 4.7
Grubbs 2.7 to 7.3
Evans 3.4 to 10
Dayum, that's $36mil






Had not seen this before.
Makes speculation on any FA kinda dicey

There will be a sh!t storm of renegotiated contracts for Loomis to get done.
Are we looking at a youth movement on Def out of nessesity?
Quddus and Bush starting FS and SS ?
Posted by Suntiger
STG or BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
36237 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 11:05 am to
quote:

Johnson would be a big commitment move. I like where he is at for plucking career/development-wise.


Agree with the CB analogy. I think bringing in Johnson or Avril would be equivilant to when we traded for Mike McKinzie. I think we need to make a big upgrade at the DE position.

quote:

I like the idea of taking Moore from the dirty birds but don't expect a Harper cut. Praying for a renegotiated deal tho.


Harper isn't as bad as everyone says. Coverage is not his strong suit, but it isn't most safetys. That being said, I just really like the idea of stealing Moore and not having to worry about the position for another few years. Not sure if we can sign Moore and keep Harper though.

Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 11:08 am to
quote:

Are we looking at a youth movement on Def out of nessesity?

some kinda movement fo sho! Loomis is gonna have to pull out a new magic wand. He isn't the football evaluator guy but he is a wizard in capology and contracts.

Last year was a pretty big splash- Lofton, Bunkley, Grubbs, Hawthorne, Chamberlain. I'd hope for one impact guy or maybe a coupla fillers this year at best.

To that $36mil in raises add the specter of Graham, Bushrod, dlP, Galette, etc needing fresh money as well

fo sho
--------------------

How bout Greg Jennings?

not expecting to be back in GB

At 30 next year he may be had for a one year show-me deal, What better place could he do that than here? He could big brother Morgan and Hakim on deep balling. Just if he was a low cost option- similar to Sharper's market value when we signed him.
This post was edited on 12/19/12 at 11:24 am
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
76645 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 11:32 am to


Wait now. How many WR's can we sport.

Moore
Colston
Morgan
Henderson
Roby
Toon
Givens
Hakim
Tanner

And we still have the undrafted pics coming to camp. We need more QB's to throw some balls at camp
Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 11:44 am to
Looks like the end of the line here for Devery

Roby is an all pro gunner but it's an expensive spot for a guy that does nothing else

Toon- yes, we're hoping but there's more guys like him that never shake the injuries than the ones who end up solid

Givens- no more than PS

Tanner- impressed that he can stick on a PS

Morgan/Hakim- may the best man win. Hakim actually looks to have more total upside IMO. Would like to see them both on fly routes on each side of the field at the same time.

So only Colston, Moore, and one of the speed guys look like surefire spots.
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
76645 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 11:49 am to
Would be fun to see 4.31 speed in BnG.
I liked Givens and Tanner last year before injury. Toon started camp great then regressed but looks like a legit NFL starter. Yea. Roby and Henderson are gone.
Morgan would have to crap on CSP's desk to not make this team next year.
Posted by wildtigercat93
Member since Jul 2011
116218 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 12:24 pm to
Freeneys not going anywhere Imo
Posted by Bduhon55
St. Petersburg, FL
Member since Sep 2008
3414 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 5:59 pm to
Spags is the one who brought the best out in Osi and I would love to see these two together, but I dont see it happening. He isnt going to be one of those take less to win guys because he has already won. He will go to a team like the raiders or rams, or someone like the Patriots or Chargers who have a lot of money to free up. Another guy I sort of have my eye on is Wes Welker. I know Moore is our Welker role guy, but I like the thought of Welker, Moore, Colston, Toon, and Morgan. Toon and Colston the big possession guys, Welker and Moore the slot sure handed guys, and Morgan the burner.
Posted by St Augustine
The Pauper of the Surf
Member since Mar 2006
72178 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 6:37 pm to
Welker looking to cash in.
This post was edited on 12/19/12 at 6:38 pm
Posted by loyalauron
Atlanta
Member since Nov 2012
1325 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 6:53 pm to
5 wide set.

Colston, Morgan, Lance on one side, Graham and Jennings on the other.

Good luck defending that.

Posted by loyalauron
Atlanta
Member since Nov 2012
1325 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 6:56 pm to
btw get ANYONE that Spags wants as long as it's possible in regards to the cap.
Posted by THRILLHO
Old Metairie near Cleary
Member since Apr 2006
50441 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 9:08 pm to
I really don't think we're going to be able to afford much, definitely not the top flight RDE that everyone hopes we go after. I envision us having the money to keep Bushrod after he finds a disappointing FA market, and then extending Graham (this is the year to do it, he had a "good" by TE standards season, but you get that feeling that he'll blow back up again next year).

Smith and Vilma are gone. They just don't have it any more.

Hawthorne may be gone, hefty roster bonus ($3m). Bunkley will stay (first two seasons are guaranteed). Harper I think stays. The accelerated cap hit from cutting him pretty much exactly equals what his base salary is, and he gets a bit too much hate on this board. He's a solid player. Greer definitely stays.
Posted by CocoLoco
Member since Jan 2012
29108 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 9:27 pm to
quote:

Another guy I sort of have my eye on is Wes Welker


Would cum my pants, but don't see this happening. He will want a massive contract, his production has been outstanding for years.

I'd be fine with Jennings on a one year deal, would cause even more matchup problems.


Osi would be great, especially under Spags, but he is another guy I think will want a massive contract. Freeney, for something that won't involve breaking the bank, but otherwise no.

We definitely need to go DE for our first pick, and see if we can land a big name as well. OT is also a position that will require a nice pickup, along with a safety. Loomis will have some serious work with contracts this year, but he has been a guru with is for a while. I trust the front office to get this team ready for some arse rape with no lube next season.
Posted by THRILLHO
Old Metairie near Cleary
Member since Apr 2006
50441 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 9:55 pm to
Welker would be redundant with our WR talent. He's a great player but I don't think that would be a smart contract.
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