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Let's get realistic: best and worst case scenerios for Bowl Game
Posted on 11/26/12 at 9:50 am
Posted on 11/26/12 at 9:50 am
Alright, I'm trying to get caught up on this stuff and thought I'd lay it all out. The biggest domino to fall, potentially, IMO is the issue of Kent State (visiting Tiger Stadium next year) going to the BCS by finishing in the top 16 and ahead of Big East Champ or ACC (Ga Tech) and pushing other teams down.
We have in official "order" five possibilities, with the most likely possibility being the Chick-Fil-A Bowl:
1. Capital One Bowl (SEC No. 2) vs. Big 10 No. 2
Georgia/Alabama is most often picked for this game and the Big 10 is awful with Michigan the common choice and possibly Northwestern. Should Wisconsin upset Nebraska, the Huskers could call to Cap One, bumping down the Big 10 order. However, I've also read the Cap One does not want NU since they were there last year. I'm guessing the SEC CG loser would have to lose in humiliating fashion for LSU to have a chance.
For LSU a tweet was sent out yesterday from the bowl: "@krisbrauner Michigan/Alabama rematch not likely; Michigan/LSU definitely possible"
Best Case: vs. No. 12 Nebraska
Worst Case: vs. No. 19 Michigan or No. 22 Northwestern.
2. Cotton Bowl (SEC, typically SEC West) vs. Big 12 No. 2
Texas A&M is common pick, however Dallas Morning News projects LSU. Opponents could be K-State/Oklahoma if either is passed by BCS or No. 23 Oklahoma State, or Texas.
I really depends on if the Big 12 gets two teams. Oklahoma would likely need to lose to TCU this week to slide. I'd like to be optimistic in thinking that the Capital One Bowl will want a Heisman-winning JFF happy to be in a new place instead of a beat down Georgia team unhappy to be there, and Texas politics will prevent at UT/A&M rematch, but all speculation. Of course LSU was just there and is going back again in August.
Best Case: LSU vs. No. 11 Oklahoma/No. 6 K-State
Worst Case: LSU vs. 23 Oklahoma State and really no loser here with Texas in the mix, although unranked.
2. Outback Bowl (SEC, typically SEC East) vs. Big 10 No. 3
Game typically goes to Eastern Division team. Since 1998, only one West Team (Auburn in 2009 game) has been selected. South Carolina is a common projection to play against No. 22. Northwestern. ESPN.com projects LSU to play in this game. Michigan could fall, and Wisconsin could also end up here. LSU played only once in this bowl, the 1989 game, so maybe they want someone fresh.
Best Case: LSU vs. No. 12 Nebraska or No 19 Michigan
Worst Case: LSU vs. No. 22 Northwestern or unranked Wisconsin
4. Chick-Fil-A Bowl (SEC No. 5) vs. ACC No. 2
We all know this is the common pick and is most often projected to go against ACC No. 2, projected as No. 14 Clemson. It is possible that if No. 13 FSU loses to 6-6 Georgia Tech, they could slide to CFA bowl. North Carolina and Miami are no eligible for post season, so ACC is even weaker than usual.
However, Scout projects a crazy scenario where Oklahoma losing could open the door for Clemson to get in as an at large BCS team, thus weakening the ACC further and giving LSU a huge drop off in opponents. LINK
Best Case: LSU vs. No. 14 Clemson or No. 15 FSU (after devastating ACC CG loss)
Worst Case: LSU vs. Unranked VaTech (going to Atl. to open season), Unranked NC State (just fired coach) or unranked Duke.
5. Gator (SEC 6) vs. Big 10 4/5It would seem highly unlikely LSU would fall this far, but most projections have Wisconsin as the opponent. Should Wisconsin win the B1G, maybe Northwestern would fall to this spot.
Best Case: LSU vs. No. 22 Northwestern
Worst Case: LSU vs. unranked Wisconsin (but a traditional power)
I'm not happy, but short of Oklahoma/K-State in Cotton or Nebraska in Cap One, which is unlikely, Clemson is not a bad matchup. If for some reason, Clemson goes to the BCS and we go to CFA, it's not good at all.
We have in official "order" five possibilities, with the most likely possibility being the Chick-Fil-A Bowl:
1. Capital One Bowl (SEC No. 2) vs. Big 10 No. 2
Georgia/Alabama is most often picked for this game and the Big 10 is awful with Michigan the common choice and possibly Northwestern. Should Wisconsin upset Nebraska, the Huskers could call to Cap One, bumping down the Big 10 order. However, I've also read the Cap One does not want NU since they were there last year. I'm guessing the SEC CG loser would have to lose in humiliating fashion for LSU to have a chance.
For LSU a tweet was sent out yesterday from the bowl: "@krisbrauner Michigan/Alabama rematch not likely; Michigan/LSU definitely possible"
Best Case: vs. No. 12 Nebraska
Worst Case: vs. No. 19 Michigan or No. 22 Northwestern.
2. Cotton Bowl (SEC, typically SEC West) vs. Big 12 No. 2
Texas A&M is common pick, however Dallas Morning News projects LSU. Opponents could be K-State/Oklahoma if either is passed by BCS or No. 23 Oklahoma State, or Texas.
I really depends on if the Big 12 gets two teams. Oklahoma would likely need to lose to TCU this week to slide. I'd like to be optimistic in thinking that the Capital One Bowl will want a Heisman-winning JFF happy to be in a new place instead of a beat down Georgia team unhappy to be there, and Texas politics will prevent at UT/A&M rematch, but all speculation. Of course LSU was just there and is going back again in August.
Best Case: LSU vs. No. 11 Oklahoma/No. 6 K-State
Worst Case: LSU vs. 23 Oklahoma State and really no loser here with Texas in the mix, although unranked.
2. Outback Bowl (SEC, typically SEC East) vs. Big 10 No. 3
Game typically goes to Eastern Division team. Since 1998, only one West Team (Auburn in 2009 game) has been selected. South Carolina is a common projection to play against No. 22. Northwestern. ESPN.com projects LSU to play in this game. Michigan could fall, and Wisconsin could also end up here. LSU played only once in this bowl, the 1989 game, so maybe they want someone fresh.
Best Case: LSU vs. No. 12 Nebraska or No 19 Michigan
Worst Case: LSU vs. No. 22 Northwestern or unranked Wisconsin
4. Chick-Fil-A Bowl (SEC No. 5) vs. ACC No. 2
We all know this is the common pick and is most often projected to go against ACC No. 2, projected as No. 14 Clemson. It is possible that if No. 13 FSU loses to 6-6 Georgia Tech, they could slide to CFA bowl. North Carolina and Miami are no eligible for post season, so ACC is even weaker than usual.
However, Scout projects a crazy scenario where Oklahoma losing could open the door for Clemson to get in as an at large BCS team, thus weakening the ACC further and giving LSU a huge drop off in opponents. LINK
Best Case: LSU vs. No. 14 Clemson or No. 15 FSU (after devastating ACC CG loss)
Worst Case: LSU vs. Unranked VaTech (going to Atl. to open season), Unranked NC State (just fired coach) or unranked Duke.
5. Gator (SEC 6) vs. Big 10 4/5It would seem highly unlikely LSU would fall this far, but most projections have Wisconsin as the opponent. Should Wisconsin win the B1G, maybe Northwestern would fall to this spot.
Best Case: LSU vs. No. 22 Northwestern
Worst Case: LSU vs. unranked Wisconsin (but a traditional power)
I'm not happy, but short of Oklahoma/K-State in Cotton or Nebraska in Cap One, which is unlikely, Clemson is not a bad matchup. If for some reason, Clemson goes to the BCS and we go to CFA, it's not good at all.
This post was edited on 11/26/12 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 11/26/12 at 9:52 am to Ghostfacedistiller
I wouldn't slit my wrists (like some of the morons on here) over any of those. Not wild about Northwestern though.
Posted on 11/26/12 at 9:58 am to Ghostfacedistiller
Best case...for Tiger fans in Texas is the Cotton Bowl where we house the Longhorns by 30....
Worst case is any non New Years Day or later bowl...
ETA: if UTexas is the Big XII team in the Cotton Bowl, TAMU will NOT be the SEC team...
too much politics involved...read my post last night on the issue...
Worst case is any non New Years Day or later bowl...
ETA: if UTexas is the Big XII team in the Cotton Bowl, TAMU will NOT be the SEC team...
too much politics involved...read my post last night on the issue...
This post was edited on 11/26/12 at 10:00 am
Posted on 11/26/12 at 10:05 am to Ghostfacedistiller
quote:Not going to happen. Loser of SEC Championship game will go here.
1. Capital One Bowl
quote:A&M has this one wrapped up. To bad Texas finished so shitty. It will Be A & M vs. OSU.
2. Cotton Bowl
quote:No. USCe will go here.
Outback Bowl
quote:Ta-da! LSU vs Clemson.
4. Chick-Fil-A Bowl
quote:MSU or Vanderbilt.
5. Gator (SEC 6)
Posted on 11/26/12 at 10:24 am to Ghostfacedistiller
Most interesting games would be Michigan, OK, or FSU regardless of bowl venue.
Okie is a year too late and VaTech...blah. Clemson is a good team I guess but I have no interest an there's no prestige for beating Clemson.
Okie is a year too late and VaTech...blah. Clemson is a good team I guess but I have no interest an there's no prestige for beating Clemson.
Posted on 11/26/12 at 10:34 am to Ghostfacedistiller
I just hope we play Michigan, whatever bowl it takes for that to happen.
Posted on 11/26/12 at 10:38 am to Ghostfacedistiller
IMO, this LSU team honestly should be thankful to get any hi-profile, non BCS bowl at all. Our 10-2 is a shaky record, at best. We've all see our offense most of this season. And we've seen our defense take a late-season nose-dive now, too. So let's all be glad for whatever the bowl is that invites us.
For me, regardless of who/where we play:
Best case - LSU wins
Worst case - LSU loses
No in-betweens...
For me, regardless of who/where we play:
Best case - LSU wins
Worst case - LSU loses
No in-betweens...
Posted on 11/26/12 at 11:32 am to Ghostfacedistiller
I wish the SEC would dump the Cap One Bowl and send a message to the idiots here in Orlandeaux. City has been fighting to fix up the stadium for years and people/politicians just will not do it. We are getting a new Performing Arts Center instead. Yippee!!! At least they put in field turf, but the rest is a dump.
Posted on 11/26/12 at 12:20 pm to Ghostfacedistiller
quote:
Texas politics will prevent at UT/A&M rematch
i don't think so. there are tons of tejas fans that would want this game (it's not a rematch tho). the admin at tejas was incredibly butt hurt when a&m left them but the fans want to play them and want the annual turkey game with them back. as far as the tejas legislature, i don't think it's a big issue. there are just too many folks that don't follow either school for this to be a paramount issue. a&m has a great chance of going to the cotton but of course jff is highly sought after is other bowls too.
Posted on 11/26/12 at 1:26 pm to Ghostfacedistiller
quote:
1. Capital One Bowl
I never, ever want to see LSU play in that mockery of a game again.
Posted on 11/26/12 at 1:33 pm to Ghostfacedistiller
Clemson is a terrible match-up for LSU, given the current woes of our defense.
Posted on 11/26/12 at 1:34 pm to Ghostfacedistiller
I think the best game to bring in the most $$ is the Chick Fil A Bowl against Clemsux.
Also, the Cotton Bowl would be a big one against Oklahomo.
Also, the Cotton Bowl would be a big one against Oklahomo.
Posted on 11/26/12 at 4:38 pm to Ghostfacedistiller
Bowl scenarios in order of descending suckiness (IMHO):
1. vs. Michigan in Cap One
2. vs. Michigan in Outback
3. vs. Texas in Cotton
4. vs. Ok St. in Cotton
5. vs. Northwestern in Outback
6. vs. Clemson in Chicken
7. vs. anyone else in Chicken
1. vs. Michigan in Cap One
2. vs. Michigan in Outback
3. vs. Texas in Cotton
4. vs. Ok St. in Cotton
5. vs. Northwestern in Outback
6. vs. Clemson in Chicken
7. vs. anyone else in Chicken
Posted on 11/26/12 at 5:22 pm to Ghostfacedistiller
When Kent St. wins the MAC championship and finishes 16th in the BCS (they are currently 17th with UCLA at 16th), they will take an automatic at-large bid (thanks to Rutgers being unranked) which means the Big12 will only get one team. (at larges will be Florida, ND, Kent St., Oregon). This means K-State or OU will be left out.
Cap One looks like they want aTm now so expect LSU to the cotton against K-State or OU if Bama wins......if UGA wins, then we probably goto Chik-Fil-A to play Clemson.
The SEC bowl tie-ins don't care about rankings. They want match-ups. as long as LSU gets a match-up against a good opponent and wins, it doesn't matter if we play on 12/31 at night in primetime or 15 hours later on 1/1 when several other games are going on.
Cap One looks like they want aTm now so expect LSU to the cotton against K-State or OU if Bama wins......if UGA wins, then we probably goto Chik-Fil-A to play Clemson.
The SEC bowl tie-ins don't care about rankings. They want match-ups. as long as LSU gets a match-up against a good opponent and wins, it doesn't matter if we play on 12/31 at night in primetime or 15 hours later on 1/1 when several other games are going on.
This post was edited on 11/26/12 at 5:23 pm
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