re: Crackpot ASOIAF Theories SPOILERS

I know that we are supposed to believe that Joffrey paid the assassin to kill Bran but that was only alluded to by Tyrion and Jaime, IIRC.

Is it possible that Littlefinger lied about the dagger to attempt to capitalize on what he saw as a useful situation?

Crackpot time: Varys sent the assassin to Winterfell in an attempt to destabilize the realm. As the spider, he would know that after John Arryn's death that Robert would then turn to his only true trustworthy friend, Ned. He knew that Ned would be honor bound to accept the appointment so in order to keep him from King's Landing he hires the assassin. Varys hoped that the attempt on Bran's life would make Ned think there were more enemies at home and keep him in the North.

He knew that the Lannister's would be making a power play in the wake of John Arryn's death and that having Ned there to aid Robert would only stabilize the situation. He probably also knew that there was a plot in place by the Lannisters to kill Robert. Removing Ned from the upcoming bad situation would only assist the Spider's efforts.

Which makes me think that Varys also has some part in Littlefingers adventures in the Vale and that Littlefinger isn't in as much control as he thinks.