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re: NCAA Track and Field Championship Thread

Posted on 6/8/12 at 2:44 pm to
Posted by Ball Gravy
Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2008
2985 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 2:44 pm to
I'm sorry, I made a mistake. The FSU Decathlon guy lost them points from the original prediction.

Here's the latest.

Mens Predicted Scores
1. FSU 48
2. UF 44
2. A&M 42

100 - FSU(18)
200 - FSU(14), A&M(6)
400 - UF(10), A&M(4)
Steeple - A&M(4)
110h - A&M(5), UF(1)
4x100 - FSU(8), A&M(6)
4x400 - UF(10), A&M(8), FSU(Q)
PV - FSU(Q)
TJ - UF(10), FSU(3)
Shot - FSU(Q)
Hammer - UF(5)

Posted by MCrun2
Member since Mar 2004
473 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 3:15 pm to
100 - the way Adams from Auburn is running i doubt FSU gets 18. We may get one or 2 but any here is lagniappe.

200 - same scenario for us here. Again FSU may get 14 but will be lucky if they do with a guy running in lane 9. A&M looks about right.

400 - hard to get 5th out of lane one for A&M. guy from florida is flying but everyone else is also. had to run 45.29 just to qualify for the finals. fastest finals in a while.

Steeple - who knows. AM will score something

110h - could be huge for us. Nugent's race will show us if we will have a shot at the title. UF and AM could get big points as well.

4x100 - auburn will win and i think we take 2nd and push FSU and AM back a couple of spots

PV - no one expected to score

TJ - another event for LSU to get an extra point or 2. 5 pts projected for LSU

Shot - none

Hammer - looking like UF will gain a couple of points but Lauro for LSU in 4th position as of now seeded to score 1 in 8th

4x400 - i think florida will win this and may clinch the title for them. we will be in it and will be a close race. Will be a fun final event
Posted by TheSexecutioner
Member since Mar 2011
5253 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 3:27 pm to
quote:

100 - FSU(18)
200 - FSU(14), A&M(6)
400 - UF(10), A&M(4)
Steeple - A&M(4)
110h - A&M(5), UF(1)
4x100 - FSU(8), A&M(6)
4x400 - UF(10), A&M(8), FSU(Q)
PV - FSU(Q)
TJ - UF(10), FSU(3)
Shot - FSU(Q)
Hammer - UF(5)


No. This is terrible. No conceivable seeding system could have Florida getting anything but 8 in hammer. Florida and A&M going 1,2 in the 4x4 is laughable at this point. FSU's points in the 100 and 200 are way too optimistic considering the quality of the fields.

LSU would not want to trade positions with any teams right now, IMO.
Posted by Ball Gravy
Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2008
2985 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 3:30 pm to
I'm very confident LSU will finish 4th and FSU will finish 1st.

Where A&M and UF go is a coin toss.
Posted by WikiTiger
Member since Sep 2007
41055 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 3:33 pm to
quote:

LSU would not want to trade positions with any teams right now, IMO.


I'm trusting you most because you are saying what I want to hear!

Confirmation bias at its best!

I hope you are right!
Posted by TheSexecutioner
Member since Mar 2011
5253 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 3:46 pm to
quote:

I'm very confident LSU will finish 4th and FSU will finish 1st.

Where A&M and UF go is a coin toss.


Well forgive me for not being inclined to believe anything you say. Your posting of outdated seedings reveals that you have no clue what it looks like right now.

FSU may finish 1st and LSU 4th but you have no grounds to think that right now. Why you still believe that FSU will go 1,2 in the 100 despite Harry Adams going a wind legal 9.96 is beyond me. Andrew Riley also ran a wind legal 10.02 yesterday.
This post was edited on 6/8/12 at 3:48 pm
Posted by TheSexecutioner
Member since Mar 2011
5253 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 3:47 pm to
quote:

I'm trusting you most because you are saying what I want to hear!

Confirmation bias at its best!

I hope you are right!


Bear in mind, theres 4 teams with comparable chances. Just because LSU has the best position right now does not mean they are over 50 or anywhere close even.
Posted by TigerMan327
Elsewhere
Member since Feb 2011
5239 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 3:49 pm to
are you guys talking girls or guys?
Posted by TheSexecutioner
Member since Mar 2011
5253 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 3:56 pm to
Guys. The girls matchup isn't as interesting yet. It will be much higher scoring, so it is hard to tell which events will be do-or-die. Plus, their aren't many head to heads. It's kind of Oregon's distance vs our sprints.

Lauro just got 4th(5 points) in the Hammer for LSU and Florida got the 8 they were supposed to. This was really the best case scenario for LSU. We definitely improved our positioning.
Posted by MCrun2
Member since Mar 2004
473 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 3:56 pm to
5 big points for Lauro (LSU) who was seeded to finish 8th but finishes 4th. Florida with 8 big points with their 2nd place finish as well.

Still early i know but moves us into a tie for 2nd i think
This post was edited on 6/8/12 at 4:00 pm
Posted by trackfan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
19691 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 4:24 pm to
quote:

Plus, their aren't many head to heads. It's kind of Oregon's distance vs our sprints

What are you talking about? LSU and Oregon go head to head in the 100, 400, 800, 4x100 and 4x400.
Posted by TheSexecutioner
Member since Mar 2011
5253 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 5:07 pm to
quote:

What are you talking about? LSU and Oregon go head to head in the 100, 400, 800, 4x100 and 4x400.


Thats a relatively small percentage of the events when you consider LSU is going to get around 18 of their points in the 200 and Oregon is going to get a ton out of the distance events. In any event, there are some head to heads, but its not like the men where you can't find a single event that doesn't have multiple contending teams with an entrant.
Posted by Dennis ODell
New Orleans
Member since Jun 2010
375 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 5:20 pm to
I say we just award sexecutioner the title of most knowledgable rantard about the NCAA meet and be done with these pissing contests.
Posted by TheSexecutioner
Member since Mar 2011
5253 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 5:48 pm to
Cassandra Tate wins the 400H. Its now LSU's to lose in the womens. That all but seals it, barring a dropped baton or something.
Posted by Tiger Authority
Member since Jul 2007
29476 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 5:49 pm to
Appreciate the updates.
Posted by acgeaux129
We are BR
Member since Sep 2007
15011 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 5:52 pm to
He thinks that because he is a student manager for the track team and gets to help stretch out Barrett nugent's traps every once in awhile, he's automatically in the know. Really he is just a running shorts-sniffing dweeb.
Posted by TheSexecutioner
Member since Mar 2011
5253 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 5:59 pm to
FSU only got 3rd and 6th in the 100. That effectively removes them from the team competition

Aaron Earnest of LSU got 8th in that heat which was expected.
Posted by TheSexecutioner
Member since Mar 2011
5253 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 6:04 pm to
Oregon gets first in 100. LSU second and third. Great results for the Tigers.

eta: for women's that is.
This post was edited on 6/8/12 at 6:05 pm
Posted by tigercross
Member since Feb 2008
4918 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 6:06 pm to
quote:

Cassandra Tate wins the 400H. Its now LSU's to lose in the womens. That all but seals it, barring a dropped baton or something.


I would not go that far. The Tigers and Ducks are currently tied. Remaining events--LSU has 2x 200m, 800m, 4x1, 4x4, 110h, 400m. Oregon has 2x800m, 2x 1500m, 2x 5k, 400m, 4x1, 2x steeplechase.

LSU will obviously outscore Oregon in the 200 and 110h and probably the relays (I'm speculating by a total of about 25). Oregon will probably outscore the Tigers in the 400 and 800 (but not by anywhere near 25, maybe like 10). It is going to depend on how much they pick up in the 3 distance races (I think they will get a podium spot in both the 15 and 5k so they will make up at least 12 on us there) and is likely to hinge on placement in the 4x4.
This post was edited on 6/8/12 at 6:09 pm
Posted by WildTchoupitoulas
Member since Jan 2010
44071 posts
Posted on 6/8/12 at 6:08 pm to
Just as a quick aside, the NCAA site has the following standings:

Men's Team Scores
9 of 21 Events Scored
Rnk Team Points
1 Virginia Tech 21.00
2 Texas 19.00
3 LSU 17.00
4 Florida 16.00
4 Arkansas 16.00
4 Stanford 16.00
7 Florida State 14.00
7 Arizona 14.00
7 Nebraska 14.00
10 Kansas State 12.00
10 Auburn 12.00


Women's Team Scores
8 of 21 Events Scored
Rnk Team Points
1 LSU 24.00
2 Stanford 22.00
3 Oregon 14.00
3 UCLA 14.00
3 Kansas 14.00
3 Oklahoma 14.00
7 Penn State 11.00
7 USC 11.00
9 Southern Illinois 10.00
9 San Diego St. 10.00
9 TCU 10.00
9 Texas A&M 10.00
9 Georgia 10.00
9 Tennessee 10.00

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