Unless that actually negatively impacts the school that offers him so early, it doesn't "backfire" on them. There's a difference between the kid just not panning out, and the kid not panning out backfiring on the school.

I also don't think the flame-out ratio is such a high percentage. If you looked at the top 100 8th graders in 2008 and the top 100 seniors now, probably half the list is the same. Sure kids have moved up and down, but many of them are the same. The young kids that are top 10 guys now but not as much room to develop still often end up top 100 guys down the road.

Perfect example is a kid I saw a lot, Andre Allen out of Memphis. He was a 5'9", 200 lb. PG as a 13 year old, and he was the best player in the nation at his age group. Then he ended up still a 5'9", 200 lb. senior (with a weed habit), but was still a top 100 type recruit with offers from Memphis, Arkansas, Tennessee, Ole Miss, etc. Probably could have been an even better running back if he had enjoyed football more, but I digress.

This post was edited on 4/18/12 at 12:38 pm

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Posted by Bubba Hotep

Member since Nov 2003

9330 posts

Posted on 4/18/12 at 12:42 pm to Gravitiger

I worded it wrong and I thought I clarified it.

If the ultimate goal is to sign that player, which by offering them a scholarship it appears is the case, then if that player does not pan out, then the plan "backfired." It will likely not have a lastining negative impact on the program, so it won't "backfire" in that sense.

Regardless, a program with the stature of Indiana should not be doing this. This is something a non-elite school should do to draw attention. Billy Gillespie did this frequently at Kentucky, with virtually zero success. I don't think any of his middle school recruits ever went on to play major college basketball.

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