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re: Case-Shiller: Home prices fall in January
Posted on 3/27/12 at 3:08 pm to LSU0358
Posted on 3/27/12 at 3:08 pm to LSU0358
I'm not much for technicals so I won't offer any counterpoint to that and I already offered my counterpoint to the real estate/outperforming market stuff, but I'd like to see your data about building permits leading the CS by 6-12 months. No doubt that CS is a trailing indicator, I just have absolutely no faith in building permit data and given its literal constant revision I find it incredibly hard to believe that there is much to glean out of that information on a forward looking basis. All of that is also to say that I was asking why you think housing prices will go up and by what amount, not necessarily why you think real estate stocks will perform well.
Posted on 3/27/12 at 3:37 pm to kfizzle85
C-S 20-City HPI
(Year, High, Low)
2007, 202.31 (Jan), 184.97 (Dec)
2008, 180.68 (Jan), 150.54 (Dec)
2009, 146.63 (Jul), 139.26 (Apr)
2010, 148.88 (Jul), 142.39 (Dec)
2011, 142.96 (Aug), 136.61 (Dec)
2012 --> 135.46 (Jan)
Also, the C-S 10-City HPI has been calculated since January 1987. In August 1989 it was 82.08 when the CPI-U was at 124.6. For January 2012 (22.5 years later) it was 148.40 when the CPI-U was at 226.665, thus being lower in real dollar terms.
(Year, High, Low)
2007, 202.31 (Jan), 184.97 (Dec)
2008, 180.68 (Jan), 150.54 (Dec)
2009, 146.63 (Jul), 139.26 (Apr)
2010, 148.88 (Jul), 142.39 (Dec)
2011, 142.96 (Aug), 136.61 (Dec)
2012 --> 135.46 (Jan)
Also, the C-S 10-City HPI has been calculated since January 1987. In August 1989 it was 82.08 when the CPI-U was at 124.6. For January 2012 (22.5 years later) it was 148.40 when the CPI-U was at 226.665, thus being lower in real dollar terms.
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