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tirebiter 
LSU Fan
ATL
Member since Oct 2006
4497 posts
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 3/9/12 at 1:21 pm to ich1baN)
quote:
If you don't think we have inflation in many sectors of the world, look no further than China, India, Vietnam, and your own grocery store. Has your average food bill gone up or down the last year? Do you pay less or more for most necessities relative to a year ago? There are multiple independent sources that report inflation to be approximately 8% right now.
The most pertinent question would be to ask whether my assets and income have increased in excess of inflation and taxes, and yes, well beyond, even without JM's.
quote:
Now, the only companies I suggest even investing in (btw I am on a VPN, so I can squawk all I want and I have not used any insider info thus far) are miners with no debt, no hedging, in great jurisdictions/politically friendly environments, excellent management teams, huge cash castles, low cash cost per ounce, and high 2P reserves.
First I have heard of China being a great jurisdiction and a politically friendly environment.
quote:
And about the Junior Miners, I offer them as a tool to leverage yourself against the price of gold and silver b/c in every scenario where gold and silver has gone up in history, the junior minors have outpaced gold/silver by a factor of 10 and even 100 in many cases.
Why do you inherently believe leveraged or highly volatile equity investments are good for mainstream investors, which is the category of most that frequent this forum. As a commodity, gold is volatile as is, why should investors take on ever greater risk? Most would not even consider putting a reasonable percentage of a portfolio on gold, much less a JM.
quote:
Edit: And if it happens to go down I will offer to pay for the difference.
Alright, Alan Stanford IV, we will see how future collection attempts fare.
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ich1baN 
Florida State Fan
Member since Dec 2010
1812 posts
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 3/10/12 at 11:44 am to tirebiter)
quote:
The most pertinent question would be to ask whether my assets and income have increased in excess of inflation and taxes, and yes, well beyond, even without JM's.
I truly hope you can say that 5 years from now.
quote:
First I have heard of China being a great jurisdiction and a politically friendly environment.
That is a legitimate concern. SVM has considerable future growth in their Canadian properties. However, the Ying mining district in China has been extremely accomodative to SVM as they have taken over 2 other Chinese mining companies with no hassles or political red tape. SVM is a world class producer that not only has 62 million ounces of silver in 2P but elects to do things in an environmentally friendly way which bodes very well for China b/c Chinese miners are notoriously wasteful and use relatively cheap infrastructure/technology. (Local Chinese officials have been encouraging SVM to take on more miners in the area)
Also, CEO Dr. Feng whom is Chinese happens to be well connected with many of the decision and political actors in that area which gives SVM a huge comparative advantage.
Now, after doing due diligence do I think owning SVM are worth the risk and will triple from current prices? Yes, do I suggest putting the house on them? No. That is why I have a diversified portfolio. A 100 shares is not going to cripple anyone and it is a traditional hedge against the current macro environment.
quote:
Why do you inherently believe leveraged or highly volatile equity investments are good for mainstream investors, which is the category of most that frequent this forum. As a commodity, gold is volatile as is, why should investors take on ever greater risk? Most would not even consider putting a reasonable percentage of a portfolio on gold, much less a JM.
This again stems from many different arenas. One is my philosophical world view, another is an intrinsic view on what gold and silver really are.
I can not force anyone to do anything with their money nor would I ever. It is up to others to read an argument and synthesize the data. Now, from all the data I have gathered, I am really trying to help everyone on here.
This post was edited on 3/10 at 12:00 pm
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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
40700 posts
 Online
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 3/10/12 at 12:13 pm to ich1baN)
quote:
I truly hope you can say that 5 years from now.
quote:
This again stems from many different arenas. One is my philosophical world view, another is an intrinsic view on what gold and silver really are.
I can not force anyone to do anything with their money nor would I ever. It is up to others to read an argument and synthesize the data. Now, from all the data I have gathered, I am really trying to help everyone on here.
Do you risk mitigate?
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ich1baN
Florida State Fan
Member since Dec 2010
1812 posts
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 3/10/12 at 12:24 pm to tirebiter)
Here are some pretty important graphs to familiarize yourself with first.
http://tocqueville.com/sites/default/files/Tocqueville_Gold_Monitor.pdf
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ich1baN
Florida State Fan
Member since Dec 2010
1812 posts
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 3/10/12 at 12:25 pm to NC_Tigah)
Not sure of the intent behind the question. But you are asking if I minimize my potential danger?
That is exactly what my PM portfolio is for.
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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
40700 posts
Online
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 3/10/12 at 12:49 pm to ich1baN)
quote:
That is exactly what my PM portfolio is for.
So if Gold is flat or declines, your PM portfolio is designed to counterbalance its performance?
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TheHiddenFlask 
Clemson Fan
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
16420 posts
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 3/10/12 at 12:50 pm to NC_Tigah)
Your logic is flawed, gold can only go up.
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TheHiddenFlask
Clemson Fan
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
16420 posts
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 3/10/12 at 12:52 pm to ich1baN)
All those charts are shite. If you want to show what they are claiming, put it on a log scale.
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ich1baN
Florida State Fan
Member since Dec 2010
1812 posts
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 3/10/12 at 1:16 pm to NC_Tigah)
Gotcha. If gold is flat or declines then of course, my portfolio is at risk (like any portfolio is) but I am already so far ahead, it isn't that big of a deal for me right now. Gold would have to go back down to 2000 levels for me to really take a hit.
PMs aren't my only strategic play in this whole realm of financial protection; I have a Swiss Banking account that pays me a decent amount of interest along with the great appreciation I have experienced over the last several years.
This post was edited on 3/10 at 1:32 pm
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kfizzle85
LSU Fan
en oh, el ay
Member since Dec 2005
20370 posts
Online
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 3/10/12 at 1:26 pm to TheHiddenFlask)
Chart pdf is confusing because it looks like the work of a sophomore in college yet the website is that of a legit-looking firm. Clowns.
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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
40700 posts
Online
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 3/10/12 at 1:27 pm to ich1baN)
quote:
Gotcha. If gold is flat or declines then of course, my portfolio is at risk (like any portfolio is) but I am already so far ahead, it isn't that big of a deal right for me right now. Gold would have to go back down to 2000 levels for me to really take a hit.
OK.
That's a fairly unique investment perspective.
Good luck. 
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ich1baN
Florida State Fan
Member since Dec 2010
1812 posts
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 3/10/12 at 1:30 pm to NC_Tigah)
I will be picking up massive amounts of Gold and Silver after the 50% correction I expect after the run up to $2200 an ounce.
Cheers
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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
40700 posts
Online
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 3/10/12 at 4:58 pm to ich1baN)
quote:
I will be picking up massive amounts of Gold and Silver after the 50% correction I expect after the run up to $2200 an ounce.
Cheers
Res ipsa loquitur
That's Latin for "gold could go to $2200".
Trust me, I do hope you nail it, albeit against the odds! 
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ich1baN
Florida State Fan
Member since Dec 2010
1812 posts
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 3/10/12 at 6:24 pm to NC_Tigah)
Thanks tigah. I will let everyone know how it turns out.
Would you pick up a kruggerand if it went from say $2200 to $1000 an ounce in less than a few days? I am just curious.
This post was edited on 3/10 at 6:25 pm
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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
40700 posts
Online
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 3/11/12 at 5:18 am to ich1baN)
quote:
Would you pick up a kruggerand if it went from say $2200 to $1000 an ounce in less than a few days?
Likely indeed. Maybe even 2 :-)
I'd almost certainly dump current positions if gold crosses the 1900-2000 threshold. Buying at 1000 would more or less regenerate those near my original pricepoint. Of course any catastrophe behind such an abrupt change would dictate many other moves as well.
I'd just hope under those circumstances it wasn't your Krugerrand I was picking up.
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Doc Fenton
Member since Feb 2007
46682 posts
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 5/29/12 at 12:53 am to NC_Tigah)
quote:
Market nadir?
Lawrence Yun says YES!
The NAR's provisional statistics are always suspect, but even the revised numbers, which constitute good data, are showing a solid uptick so far this spring.
NAR Existing Home Statistics
(Year, Low Median Price, High Median Price)
(in thousands of nominal dollars)
2009, 166.5 (Apr), 181.8 (Jul)
2010, 164.6 (Feb), 182.9 (Jun)
2011, 156.1 (Feb), 175.6 (Jun)
2012, 154.6 (Jan), 177.4 (Apr--provisional)
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kfizzle85
LSU Fan
en oh, el ay
Member since Dec 2005
20370 posts
Online
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 5/29/12 at 8:13 am to Doc Fenton)
Case Shiller at all time low in March, unchanged. I still don't think it tipped, because I think a lot of that is seasonal and will reverse out in the summer, but 2 percent a year on a national basis is a lot more manageable than even 5 or 7.
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Doc Fenton
Member since Feb 2007
46682 posts
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 5/29/12 at 10:09 am to kfizzle85)
The C-S 20-city HPI for Jan-Feb-Mar is 134.10, down a total of 3.71% from the trough of 139.26 in April 2009.
The March numbers were the lowest of the year in both 2010 & 2011, and if the NAR is to be believed, median prices for existing home sales shot up significantly in March & April of this year.
The most surprising number to me is the inventory number. It averaged 10.4 months for 2008, 9.4 months for 2010, 8.2 months for 2011, and lately it's been hovering in the 6-6.5 months range.
So at this point, I'd say that early signs seem to be indicating that the C-S 20-city HPI could rise into the mid-140s this summer, but that it will probably stay below the post-2008, tax-credit-fueled peak of 148.88 from July 2010.
Also, a big factor to consider here is not the health of the housing market itself in real terms, but rather the general uptick in core inflation since January 2011:
CPI Data from BLS (Department of Labor)
(Month, m-o-m core inflation [excluding food & energy])
Apr-12, 0.2%
Mar-12, 0.2%
Feb-12, 0.1%
Jan-12, 0.2%
Dec-11, 0.1%
Nov-11, 0.2%
Oct-11, 0.2%
Sep-11, 0.1%
Aug-11, 0.2%
Jul-11, 0.2%
Jun-11, 0.3%
May-11, 0.3%
Apr-11, 0.2%
Mar-11, 0.1%
Feb-11, 0.2%
Jan-11, 0.2%
That's 2.3% core inflation over the past 12 months, which is a healthy clip.
This post was edited on 5/29 at 10:11 am
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Tigahs
LSU Fan
Manhattan
Member since Jan 2004
22538 posts
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 5/30/12 at 9:01 pm to TheHiddenFlask)
quote:
Management = Asset Management
Prop = Prop trading
Flow = trader for the asset management team?
flow trader = trading with client money instead of House money (proprietary trading)
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TheHiddenFlask
Clemson Fan
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
16420 posts
| re: Money people - what is your view of the economy? (Posted on 5/30/12 at 10:00 pm to Tigahs)
Which would be in asset management.
I have no idea what management is in that case.
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