re: Money people - what is your view of the economy?

Hey how's Henry doing?

Case-Shiller Home Price Index
(Month, Nominal 20-City HPI, CPI-Adjusted 20-City HPI)
Dec 2007 -- 184.97, 97.93
Dec 2008 -- 150.54, 79.63
Dec 2009 -- 145.89, 75.12
Dec 2010 -- 142.39, 72.24
Dec 2011 -- 136.71, 67.36

Also, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, the monthly C-S 20-city HPI has fallen for 18 of the past 19 months since the index for May 2010 was released.

The quarterly data from Shiller's Online Data webpage (using link from paragraph 3rd from the bottom) hasn't been compiled yet for the 4Q of 2011.

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That's all great and dandy but Big Ben's ZIRP policy is going to destory that asset class once again. I believe the DOW will go to 16,000.... Hell, 20,000 is even a possibility with the amount of QE world central banks are willing to do. Buy Gold and Silver on dips..... There is still a chance you can pick it up at a discount in the next couple years for half of what it will be in a month, so if you missed your opportunity keep accumulating your FRNs and be ready to dilute a great percentage of your stock holdings when the Dow reaches new highs. The boom and bust cycle will stop when the Fed is stopped. Until then, you will continue to witness countless bubbles created by Tim Turbo Tzx Geitner and the Bernank.

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rivers is that you? j/k dude. i think most people agree that investors should hedge against inflation and PMs are one way of doing that. but look at the chart of stocks compared to gold. you're thesis was right for a while but it isnt right now. you need to quit being a gold bug and go with the flow. being short sided will cause you to miss out on some good returns in other assets.

i dont agree with everything the fed has done the last few years but what else do you want them to do? extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures. their goal was to defeat deflation and so far they have done that. but i am eager to see how all this shite unwinds.

Yeah. It may be the trough, certainly possible, but I think we established that a continued dive was no longer the worry about a year and a half ago since we've basically just bumping along at like -3 percent YoY nationally.

For me and I'm sure yourself and many others, the concern post-crisis has always been that when it hits the trough, it stays there. I think that's a point worth revisiting to keep in context what a trough really means from a macro standpoint. Whether that's a trough at -3 percent YoY or flat zero growth is not all that important in my mind, the macro effect is the same.

There's just so much working against it rising [nationally, or at least in major markets] to any meaningful degree. None of the things that have held down prices in the slump of the past 2 years (as opposed to the dive of 07-09) have changed. If someone wants to look at this as a potential "green shoot" (remember those?) you'll have no argument from me, I just don't think its going to blossom into a flower any time soon, and while certain parts of the economy are clearly on fire (energy), others are still simply drifting (housing, banks by proxy).

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The "overall economy" (whatever that is) doesn't matter much.

Some people got rich during the Great Depression, what matters is that little part that involves you.

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do you like Ayn Rand any? :lol"

We all know real estate is local, certainly. So I guess then it becomes a matter of frame of reference. If the topic is "can I invest in real estate and make some good money" the answer is almost certainly "yes, in areas x y and z" (although I'm not sure what xyz are so I'm just taking you at your word there, but if you want to elaborate with some data please do). If the topic is "how is the national economy doing and when will we see it start to fully emerge from stagnation due to RE market events" I think the answer is still a more pessimistic one. Both topics are important and worth discussing for sure. Kind of just highlights what foshizzle said to some degree I suppose.

Property values are still dropping IMO. Not huge drops but still dropping. It seems shortsales and REOs are in no shortage. I expect that to continue for the forseeable future.

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Have you been looking to buy in those locations in multiple cities on the east coast?

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Yes

You are by far the coolest internal corporate investment banker I've ever conversed with, no doubt.