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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 2/19/12 at 11:05 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
Can we go ahead and define "near future" for clarity? 6-12 months? 1-3 years?
6 months, with the standard 5 year margin of error, I assume.
Posted on 2/19/12 at 11:11 pm to foshizzle
By summer- next fall food prices will go through the roof.
Posted on 2/20/12 at 2:46 pm to ich1baN
quote:
I am an Austrian economist
You are a working economist who adheres to the Austrian school of thought/theory??? Mmm, OK.
quote:
Greece will default on March 20 when they miss their interest payment and they will leave the EU.
If you believe Greece believes they will be better off leaving the EU this spring I don't know what to tell you.
quote:
We are beyond return to the days of 3% unemployment and beyond the days of returning to a sound monetary and fiscal policy as conservative estimates of our future debt liabilities mount to more than $100 Trillion.
Future DEBT obligations are not $100 Trillion.
Posted on 2/20/12 at 4:16 pm to Fat Bastard
quote:
When business perceives that they have an enemy in power, they sit on their capital. but, but, but DA on the poliboard said differently!
Yeah, give your money to DA and let him invest in solar energy.
Posted on 2/20/12 at 7:16 pm to tirebiter
quote:
Future DEBT obligations are not $100 Trillion.
If I may ask your number then I will ask you what you think it is? It is most likely well above 100$ tn with very conservative estimates at 50 trn. What do you not understand about this? It is pretty common public knowledge that even the CBO admits to.
It is pretty obvious by your comment that you do not follow what is happening or you have your head so far in the sand that all you think about are rainbow colored unicorns and what flavor coffee you are drinking atm. Wake up and look at the numbers mate.
quote:
If you believe Greece believes they will be better off leaving the EU this spring I don't know what to tell you.
Now where do you even construe this meaning out of what I said? I think Greece is totally sol. I think the EU will be better off w/o Greece's extravagant spending habits. Greece is and will be in a sh1tbasket for the next 50 years.
Here is one interesting chart that shows the number of 5 yr CDS to % of 25-34 year old still living with their parents- pretty shocking.
LINK
Posted on 2/20/12 at 7:20 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
We shall see.
Can we go ahead and define "near future" for clarity? 6-12 months? 1-3 years?
Sorry about that. I think near future as in next few years. There is a good chance of a decent drop in the next 6-12 months of about maybe 10-15% (followed by upward corrections). But nothing on the magnitude of my final 'near future' prediction within 5-7 years.
This post was edited on 2/20/12 at 7:24 pm
Posted on 2/21/12 at 12:08 am to ich1baN
Holy mother of frick you actually just tried to draw a correlation between "the number of CDS" and something regarding people living with their parents? Not even yields or anything but "the number?" Ignoring that glaring fact, this is unlocking what grand secret exactly? High unemployment means the market thinks there is a greater chance of govt default? I'll be fricking damned, you must be an Austrian economist, no wonder you made 7mm in the market. Hands down best correlation post ever. Have you met BlakelyBimbo yet? Yall could be a thing bro.
This post was edited on 2/21/12 at 12:19 am
Posted on 2/21/12 at 12:44 am to kfizzle85
I think we have an economy based on credit. That credit is becoming less and less available. Most Americans are underwater in debt. Any real growth in the economy is going to take 5 to 10 years to see. Only once we can lessen the burden our excessive spending has created can we become net consumers again and grow.
That being said, if you keep your debt low and hold cash. There will be buying opportunities even in the roughest of times. I've always tried to get in when everyone else was getting out and vice versa. At age 38, I have exceeded my father's net worth by almost a million $. We are in the same occupation and he was frugal with his money. However, he was too conservative and got very small growth in his investments.
There will be tougher times. Don't get too greedy, but be prepared to buy when things go to shite and you'll do ok.
That being said, if you keep your debt low and hold cash. There will be buying opportunities even in the roughest of times. I've always tried to get in when everyone else was getting out and vice versa. At age 38, I have exceeded my father's net worth by almost a million $. We are in the same occupation and he was frugal with his money. However, he was too conservative and got very small growth in his investments.
There will be tougher times. Don't get too greedy, but be prepared to buy when things go to shite and you'll do ok.
Posted on 2/21/12 at 7:17 am to SmackoverHawg
Posted on 2/21/12 at 2:08 pm to ich1baN
quote:
Greece will default on March 20 when they miss their interest payment and they will leave the EU.
Nostradamus, doesn't look like this will occur on March, 20. What other brilliance are you bringing?
Last I looked US debt outstanding was $15T. SS and Medicare are not debt obligations and can be remedied through policy change.
Posted on 2/21/12 at 6:52 pm to tirebiter
I'm thinking about buying a Greek bond. What say you?
Posted on 2/21/12 at 7:09 pm to tirebiter
quote:
Last I looked US debt outstanding was $15T. SS and Medicare are not debt obligations and can be remedied through policy change.
Correct. Current gross debt is over 15 trn. Future unpaid liabilities are 100 trn+(liability is something the federal government has to pay b/c they made a promise to).
As much as I want to see future SS, medicaid/care, and other mandatory programs to be curbed, it will take a full majority in both houses and the president to change current legislation and at that point we are going to see riots in the streets just like Greece.
Greece will default, the Germans already know it.
This post was edited on 2/21/12 at 7:11 pm
Posted on 2/21/12 at 7:13 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
Holy mother of frick you actually just tried to draw a correlation between "the number of CDS" and something regarding people living with their parents? Not even yields or anything but "the number?" Ignoring that glaring fact, this is unlocking what grand secret exactly? High unemployment means the market thinks there is a greater chance of govt default? I'll be fricking damned, you must be an Austrian economist, no wonder you made 7mm in the market. Hands down best correlation post ever. Have you met BlakelyBimbo yet? Yall could be a thing bro.
I only posted it b/c it is interesting. I understand correlations but to see a country with that many young adults living with their parents is sad. (that was the main conclusion I was trying to draw, not the correlation factor).
Posted on 2/21/12 at 7:21 pm to Zach
I would consider buying one with your money, but not with mine. If ever a country should be blown up to implement a responsible financial and political system, in addition to a work ethic magnitudes stronger than what exists, it is Greece.
We like to bitch about the US, but if it was as long term tragic as many try to make it a large population exodus would have occurred over the last 10-years to other locales/countries. Political system could use a return to sanity for the greater good instead of remaining pawns to special interests and the super wealthy, that would be a good starting point.
We like to bitch about the US, but if it was as long term tragic as many try to make it a large population exodus would have occurred over the last 10-years to other locales/countries. Political system could use a return to sanity for the greater good instead of remaining pawns to special interests and the super wealthy, that would be a good starting point.
Posted on 2/22/12 at 12:14 am to ich1baN
Oh. Yeah. Right.
Posted on 2/22/12 at 7:14 am to TheHiddenFlask
quote:
That's great.
Posted on 2/22/12 at 8:25 am to NC_Tigah
"Eat more limuns!" - Chick-Fil-A Cow
Posted on 2/22/12 at 8:30 am to LSURussian
quote:
LSURussian
Can you email me? I lost your address.
Posted on 2/22/12 at 8:47 am to TheHiddenFlask
YGM
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