"If team A plays opponents ranked 8th and 99th, while team B plays opponents ranked 30th and 40th, from a pure average standpoint, B has the tougher "schedule". However, A has a higher probability of being 1-1 after the two games."

Proof please.....

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Posted by bfniii

Member since Nov 2005

17840 posts

Posted on 5/26/09 at 9:10 am to Rade

i'm not a college football scheduler but, i would imagine scheduling is seen as mitigating the risk of not going undefeated. i'm sure they have risk assesments that show percentages of win/loss record vs what they know of the ooc teams on the schedule prior to the season. given that their hands are tied with the sec schedule, i'm sure they try to assess what it would take to keep them in the top 3rd of sos in the country, which they've done very successfully this decade. the rest is up to the football gods.

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Posted by ForeLSU

The Corner of Sanity and Madness

Member since Sep 2003

41525 posts

Posted on 5/26/09 at 9:34 am to Rade

quote:
Proof please.....

I can't readily find a database to fully document stats...but let's take an average team that has a decent chance at being ranked 8th over the past 30 years (Alabama), and one that has a decent chance at being ranked 30th (Ole Miss).

The top 5 teams in the SEC (outside of bama) that have won championships over this time period have the following records....

vs. Bama 57-55-2
vs. Ole Miss 76-34-1

Therefore, I conclude that losing to the 8th ranked team has a higher probability than losing to the 30th ranked team.

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Posted by studentsect

Member since Jan 2004

2260 posts

Posted on 5/26/09 at 6:12 pm to Rade

quote:
"If team A plays opponents ranked 8th and 99th, while team B plays opponents ranked 30th and 40th, from a pure average standpoint, B has the tougher "schedule". However, A has a higher probability of being 1-1 after the two games."

Proof please.....

# of teams favored in both games against teams ranked 8th and 99th= 7.
91 teams expected to go 1-1.
19 teams expected to go 0-2.
# of teams favored in both games against teams ranked 30th and 40th= 29.
9 teams expected to go 1-1.
79 expected to go 0-2.

Not that difficult to understand.

This post was edited on 5/26/09 at 6:13 pm

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