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Message
Our RPI is 33 with 2 SEC series left to play
Posted on 5/6/24 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 5/6/24 at 1:00 pm
We are 31-18.Our Strength of Schedule is 22ish.
If we win 4 of 6, and go to Hoover and go 2-2, we'll finish 38-22 and guess what?
We'll make a Regional. It doesn't matter if we get in as a 2 seed or a 3.
We'll get in.
Ole Miss RPI is 25.
Bama is 14.
If we win 4 of 6, and go to Hoover and go 2-2, we'll finish 38-22 and guess what?
We'll make a Regional. It doesn't matter if we get in as a 2 seed or a 3.
We'll get in.
Ole Miss RPI is 25.
Bama is 14.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 1:03 pm to wheelz007
I think we can win these two series and be in.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 1:04 pm to wheelz007
Taking the series from T&M was huge. It most likely did save our season
Posted on 5/6/24 at 1:12 pm to wheelz007
Go 4-6 and I don’t think what happens in Hoover matters
Posted on 5/6/24 at 1:32 pm to wheelz007
1. Even though there is technically no "cap" on the amount of teams from one conference that can reach the NCAA Tournament, I think it is reasonable to assume the committee won't take more than 10...if that.
2. Order of finish in the conference standings is completely irrelevant to the committee. Pretty much the same for the conference tournament as well (unless you win it). So LSU's tournament "resume" will likely be set after the Ole Miss series.
3. RPI is a tool used by the committee, but not the ultimate deciding factor. Meaning just because LSU gets to a certain number doesn't mean they are automatically in.
Taking all of that into account, I think we can pretty much assume these SEC teams are in:
A&M
Kentucky
Arkansas
Tennessee
Georgia
South Carolina
Mississippi St.
These two are not 100% locks, but probably pretty close to it:
Alabama
Vanderbilt
That leaves these three teams fighting for what will be 1 MAYBE 2 spots.
Florida
Ole Miss
LSU
I would say, today, LSU is behind Florida in the pecking order. Florida has the No. 1 SOS and 11th best non-conf. SOS. They've also won 10 games vs Q1 opponents
What is hurting LSU (aside from their poor SEC performance) is their non-conf. schedule isn't great (and will get worse tomorrow) and, until this past weekend, LSU has very few "good" wins. To add a little context, A&M has 11 Q1 wins. Kentucky has 17; Arkansas has 12, Georgia has 9, Tennessee has 11, Alabama has 11, Florida has 10, Ole Miss has 9.
LSU has FOUR (4)
If you take off the P&G glasses there is very little impressive about LSU's resume. That's the bad news. The good news is the season isn't over and LSU kept their hopes alive in a BIG way this weekend. If they can follow up this weekend by taking 2 from Alabama and 2 from Ole Miss, the will put themselves in position to be the 10th team taken from the SEC...if the committee takes 10, along with having an argument to be the 9th team if the committee takes 9. However, I don't think going 4-2 over the next 6 games makes LSU a "lock" by any stretch. It probably gives them a 50/50 shot. Anything worse than 4-2 and it will be panic time.
2. Order of finish in the conference standings is completely irrelevant to the committee. Pretty much the same for the conference tournament as well (unless you win it). So LSU's tournament "resume" will likely be set after the Ole Miss series.
3. RPI is a tool used by the committee, but not the ultimate deciding factor. Meaning just because LSU gets to a certain number doesn't mean they are automatically in.
Taking all of that into account, I think we can pretty much assume these SEC teams are in:
A&M
Kentucky
Arkansas
Tennessee
Georgia
South Carolina
Mississippi St.
These two are not 100% locks, but probably pretty close to it:
Alabama
Vanderbilt
That leaves these three teams fighting for what will be 1 MAYBE 2 spots.
Florida
Ole Miss
LSU
I would say, today, LSU is behind Florida in the pecking order. Florida has the No. 1 SOS and 11th best non-conf. SOS. They've also won 10 games vs Q1 opponents
What is hurting LSU (aside from their poor SEC performance) is their non-conf. schedule isn't great (and will get worse tomorrow) and, until this past weekend, LSU has very few "good" wins. To add a little context, A&M has 11 Q1 wins. Kentucky has 17; Arkansas has 12, Georgia has 9, Tennessee has 11, Alabama has 11, Florida has 10, Ole Miss has 9.
LSU has FOUR (4)
If you take off the P&G glasses there is very little impressive about LSU's resume. That's the bad news. The good news is the season isn't over and LSU kept their hopes alive in a BIG way this weekend. If they can follow up this weekend by taking 2 from Alabama and 2 from Ole Miss, the will put themselves in position to be the 10th team taken from the SEC...if the committee takes 10, along with having an argument to be the 9th team if the committee takes 9. However, I don't think going 4-2 over the next 6 games makes LSU a "lock" by any stretch. It probably gives them a 50/50 shot. Anything worse than 4-2 and it will be panic time.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 2:10 pm to wheelz007
LSU is basically in the exact same scenario they were in 2021 if you look at it from a record point of view
Posted on 5/6/24 at 2:17 pm to wheelz007
A sweep of the aggies would have been nice? But i'll take it!
Posted on 5/6/24 at 3:07 pm to wheelz007
quote:
If we win 4 of 6, and go to Hoover and go 2-2, we'll finish 38-22 and guess what?
I think we are a weak 2 seed somewhere. It would be a dramatic turnaround.
Unfortunately, going 4-2 is a less than 50% probability, IMO. I'd say it's probably a 25% chance.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 3:14 pm to wheelz007
quote:
If
is the middle word in life…
Posted on 5/6/24 at 6:46 pm to wheelz007
KPI has:
Bama - 18
LSU - 29
Ole Miss - 30
Bama - 18
LSU - 29
Ole Miss - 30
Posted on 5/6/24 at 7:22 pm to wheelz007
Win these last 2 series and we are in IMO
Would much rather play our way into a 2 seed tho
Wouldnt you rather match up with a 3 seed?
Hell, depending on the match up we could throw off vs the 3 and save Holman/Jump for the marble/championship games
quote:
It doesn't matter if we get in as a 2 seed or a 3.
Would much rather play our way into a 2 seed tho
Wouldnt you rather match up with a 3 seed?
Hell, depending on the match up we could throw off vs the 3 and save Holman/Jump for the marble/championship games
This post was edited on 5/6/24 at 7:28 pm
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:05 pm to wheelz007
Bama has been really tough at home in the conference this season.
They have series wins against Tenn, South Carolina, and Arky. Only home series loss was 2/3 to A&M.
Winning that series will be a tall task for LSU, which has looked bad on the road this season outside of two games against an awful Mizzou squad.
They have series wins against Tenn, South Carolina, and Arky. Only home series loss was 2/3 to A&M.
Winning that series will be a tall task for LSU, which has looked bad on the road this season outside of two games against an awful Mizzou squad.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 12:41 am to wheelz007
quote:
We'll make a Regional. It doesn't matter if we get in as a 2 seed or a 3.
Is it possible lsu gets a 4 seed?
Posted on 5/7/24 at 6:19 am to wheelz007
CPM missed the tournament one year with an RPI in the 20's IIRC.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 10:00 am to wheelz007
bruh, just winning 4 of the next 6 gets us into a regional. your looking too deep into it
Posted on 5/7/24 at 3:06 pm to wheelz007
It's time to put up, or shut up. We can make our bones by winning both those series
Posted on 5/7/24 at 7:34 pm to wheelz007
It’s is CRAZY everyone (aka the media I listen to TBob,Hester, moscona; and TD posters) assume this team is about to take a series in Tuscaloosa with ease and more concerned if lsu is gonna be able to sweep them.
Lsu will have to play their second best series of the year to take 2 of 3. Fingers crossed.
Lsu will have to play their second best series of the year to take 2 of 3. Fingers crossed.
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