re: Let's Find Out How Smart You Baws Are

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and if you choose the right shell at the beginning, you will always switch to the losing shell

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Yes but that is only 1/3 of the time. The other 2/3 where you chose wrong at first you switch to the money.

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there is also a 2/3 chance the one on the table is wrong.
EXACTLY like the one in your hand

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Nope.

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and if you choose the right shell at the beginning, you will always switch to the losing shell.

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Exactly, and there’s a 1/3 chance of picking the right shell at the beginning.

So, you have a 1/3 chance of losing if you switch, which implies a 2/3 chance of winning if you switch. That’s the point.