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re: Let's Find Out How Smart You Baws Are
Posted on 3/23/24 at 11:13 am to LordSaintly
Posted on 3/23/24 at 11:13 am to LordSaintly
quote:
There is a 2/3 chance of picking incorrectly. If you pick incorrectly and switch, you always get the money. This is because the dealer always reveals an empty shell, so the remaining shell must contain the money.
So, the probability of getting paid is the same as
the probability of choosing the wrong shell, which is 2/3.
both remaining shells have the exact same 2/3 probability of being wrong.
quote:
This is because the dealer always reveals an empty shell, so the remaining shell must contain the money.
there will ALWAYS be (at least) one shell remaining that is wrong.
the remaining one is not necessarily always right.
Posted on 3/23/24 at 1:08 pm to Nutriaitch
quote:
both remaining shells have the exact same 2/3 probability of being wrong.
At the beginning of the game, yes you have a 2/3 chance of picking wrong. Once the dealer reveals an empty shell and you switch your choice, it becomes an entirely new event with new probabilities.
quote:
there will ALWAYS be (at least) one shell remaining that is wrong. the remaining one is not necessarily always right.
If you choose a wrong shell at the beginning, then you will always switch to the money shell. There’s no other possibility.
As you said, there’s a 2/3 chance of picking a wrong shell at first. This means there’s a 2/3 chance of getting the money if you switch.
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