re: What do we see next, S&P 500 at 6000 or 4000?

Inflation isn't a symptom of a downturn. It’s often the opposite.

Personal debt is very high right now, thanks to stagnant wages but also people spending like drunken sailors.

As far as layoffs, the same companies turn around and hire for other divisions if we want to be anecdotal about it. Across the economy as a whole the labor market remains tight with some sector exceptions.

Not trying to say anyone is doing a great job here, but we appear to be more on the upswing of a business cycle than a downswing. As tepid as it may feel.