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Message
re: Going for 2 in that situation.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 11:01 pm to shel311
Posted on 1/22/24 at 11:01 pm to shel311
Man we’re ALL - including basically every NFL and college coach - trying to wrap our head around this.
It doesn’t make sense to many of us. And it probably didn’t to you 2-3 years ago…... I’m reading… and trying to learn, don’t be mean.
Well clearly everyone doesn’t, myself included.
And I quoted exactly what you said… 50/25/25 (which - like I said - is not correct. As you know)
This is what you said. I’m well aware it isn’t what you meant, but nonetheless this is what you said:
Those are your posts man. As you know, that math is not correct.
It doesn’t make sense to many of us. And it probably didn’t to you 2-3 years ago…... I’m reading… and trying to learn, don’t be mean.
quote:
Seems virtually everyone fully understands the discussion
Well clearly everyone doesn’t, myself included.
And I quoted exactly what you said… 50/25/25 (which - like I said - is not correct. As you know)
This is what you said. I’m well aware it isn’t what you meant, but nonetheless this is what you said:
quote:
Honest question, can you tell me the number of times I have to explain to you I didn't at all say what you keep claiming
quote:
Going for 2: - make the 1st one 50% of the time, you win - Miss 1st and 2nd 25% of the time, you lose - Miss 1st and make 2nd to get to OT 25% of the time.
Those are your posts man. As you know, that math is not correct.
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 11:18 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 11:21 pm to JPLSU1981
That math is basically correct though. The numbers might not be exact (because 50% isn’t the exact rate of success on 2 pt attempts), but if you do convert your 2 pt attempts 50% of the time, you win 62.5% of the time and lose 37.5% of the time.
I showed the math on converting 2 pt attempts 40% of the time and why it still makes sense then.
I showed the math on converting 2 pt attempts 40% of the time and why it still makes sense then.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 11:22 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
Man we’re ALL - including basically every NFL and college coach - trying to wrap our head around this. It doesn’t make sense to many of us. and it probably didn’t to you initially. I’m reading… and trying to learn, don’t be mean.
Should probably start fresh then.
Every discussion about this is going to typically assume the defensive stop and another offensive score to illustrate why going for 2 down 8 is smart. People go there to illustrate why going for 2 on the first TD is better than going for 2 on the 2nd TD only. It helps isolate the math so people can understand the logic.
A good article that discusses this with the assumption of scoring again
However, the actual winning chances are low period.
Posted on 1/23/24 at 8:27 am to JPLSU1981
quote:1. I wasn't being mean
I’m reading… and trying to learn, don’t be mean.
2. You say you're reading but I've explained something to you directly and concisely in 3 or probably more different posts and this is now the 4th time you've responded completely ignoring what I said.
You also said you were a football coach, so it's pretty surprising that this is something you still haven't learned yet?
quote:
And I quoted exactly what you said… 50/25/25 (which - like I said - is not correct. As you know)
quote:Again, this is why I politely said this conversation isn't for you. This is probably the 5th or 6th straight post you've repeated this. Myself, and now others, have replied to you to explain the assumptions made that make this NOT incorrect. If you didn't catch the assumptions at first, that's fine, no big deal. But why are you repeating this 6 times later when it's been explained to you 6 times the assumptions that make the math correct?
Those are your posts man. As you know, that math is not correct.
You said in this post I'm replying to that you're trying to learn. But you've shown that you're either unable or unwilling to try to learn by consistently ignoring the explanations that have been given to you over and over. Do you honestly disagree with what I just said?
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