re: Going for 2 in that situation.

quote:

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I hear you, just making it clear you don’t have a 50% chance of winning when you make the first 2.

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You have a low chance of winning down 6-7-8 with 6ish minutes to go regardless, but being down 6 is considerably better than being down 8.


The examples posted in here are simplified for discussion because this board struggles to understand basic math.

quote:

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Maybe I am misunderstanding you . When you go for 2 down 8, you do NOT win 50% of the time.

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My last post I explained that I did not say exactly this. I said you make the 1st 2pt conversion 50% of the time, and for the sake of this discussion, we are assuming in every scenario you do score 2 TDs.


And no you don't automatically win in the above scenario but you do take the lead. All of these things are understood by everyone else in this discussion it seems, fwiw. We're simplifying things here. Of course you can go up 1 and the other team can come down and kick a FG. That's not relevant to this discussion, so it's not factored in.