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re: Going for 2 in that situation.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:30 pm to shel311
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:30 pm to shel311
If you make the first 2 to be behind 6 - a team statistically based on empirical evidence - absolutely doesn’t have a 50% chance to win the game.
Of course you could focus on the minuscule sample size of those scenarios and get closer to your percentages, but the rest of us live in reality.
Of course you could focus on the minuscule sample size of those scenarios and get closer to your percentages, but the rest of us live in reality.
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 9:34 pm
2
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:33 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:You realize this thread is 8 pages of discussion assuming you're scoring 2 TDs, right?
If you make the first 2 to be behind 6 - a team statistically based on empirical evidence - absolutely doesn’t have a 50% chance to win the game.
I also didn't say you have a 50% chance of winning the game. I said you have a 50% chance of making the 1st 2pt conversion.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:35 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
If you make the first 2 to be behind 6 - a team statistically based on empirical evidence - absolutely doesn’t have a 50% chance to win the game.
the % you see aren't absolute. it's a percentage GIVEN THAT (this part is constant for all cases, thus ignored).
The "given that" in this case includes stopping the other team, getting the ball back and scoring another TD. So yeah all that lowers the actual odds, but that can be ignored when discussing scenarios that involve doing all that already.
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