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re: ATL Thread 9/26 | Cubs (Steele) @ Braves (Elder) | 6:20 PM CT
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:14 pm to volfan30
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:14 pm to volfan30
So to simplify this, it seems like you think the pitching problems (and quiet bats) will suddenly solve themselves on October 7. I just don't think they can flip a switch in baseball and crank it up again whenever they feel like it.
1
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:15 pm to volfan30
Random I know
Why are we never mentioned with any of the Japanese players?
Are they not interested in us or are we not interested in them?
Why are we never mentioned with any of the Japanese players?
Are they not interested in us or are we not interested in them?
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:15 pm to Broski
I’m being somewhat serious. You and others keep referring to “going in hot” or success over the last few months but I’ve legitimately never seen any data that supports that being a better predictor for playoff success than the larger sample size of 162.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:17 pm to VADawg
I think they will (or at least should) be using only the good pitchers in winnable games and I’m not worried about the offense at all. You only need about 7 good pitchers to win 11 games in 4 weeks. The Morton injury is a mild concern but shouldn’t hurt too bad in the first round. The lack of higher velo in the bullpen is my biggest concern.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:17 pm to volfan30
quote:
You and others keep referring to “going in hot”
I have actually been very steadfast in saying our offensive struggles or our September record don’t matter, as long as we keep home field advantage, which we should.
My issue has been starting pitching injuries and bullpen mediocrity.
I’ve said this to you multiple times in multiple threads, but apparently it’s gone over your head each time.
This post was edited on 9/26/23 at 8:19 pm
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:18 pm to volfan30
When is the last time you can remember a team going into the playoffs ice cold like this who was able to turn it on when they had to and win the World Series?
The Phillies last year weren't great in September, but winning those games in St. Louis got them red hot going into the NLDS and they beat the Braves like a rented mule.
The Phillies last year weren't great in September, but winning those games in St. Louis got them red hot going into the NLDS and they beat the Braves like a rented mule.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:21 pm to VADawg
I think in the case of the Phillies, their August and September numbers should be what we expect from them in October considering that’s when Bryce got in the swing of things and Turner finally started hitting like he had in previous seasons.
Ignoring that as mere random hot streaks is ignorant as frick.
Ignoring that as mere random hot streaks is ignorant as frick.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:22 pm to VADawg
I’m sure it’s happened more recently but I’m pretty sure the 2000 Yankees went ~5-17 after clinching early like this Braves team and had no trouble turning it back on.
The success rate of teams clinching very early like this would be an interesting study.
The success rate of teams clinching very early like this would be an interesting study.
This post was edited on 9/26/23 at 8:22 pm
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:22 pm to Broski
quote:
I think in the case of the Phillies, their August and September numbers should be what we expect from them in October considering that’s when Bryce got in the swing of things and Turner finally started hitting like he had in previous seasons.
I agree. I assume two losses against them when Wheeler pitches. The Braves have to be perfect against Nola, Suarez, and Sanchez.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:24 pm to volfan30
quote:
The success rate of teams clinching very early like this would be an interesting study.
We saw the Bobby Cox Braves do this routinely and those teams almost always lost Game 1 of the NLDS. I can't say for sure it's because they weren't sharp, but when it literally happens 6 years in a row... (2000-2005)
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:24 pm to VADawg
This discussion lead me that find this, FWIW.
Doesn’t appear to be a massive correlation between September success and postseason success.
Doesn’t appear to be a massive correlation between September success and postseason success.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:25 pm to VADawg
Didn’t the Braves just knock Wheeler around like 2 weeks ago? I’m not trying to be a dick but why are we acting like he’s unbeatable, especially when both of his starts will be at Truist. He’s literally the only guy we did beat last year and they will have to win twice to even get to a second start for him.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:25 pm to VADawg
quote:
agree. I assume two losses against them when Wheeler pitches. The Braves have to be perfect against Nola, Suarez, and Sanchez.
I don’t assume two losses against Wheeler, considering that was the one game we won last year, but he’s by far our toughest test if we play them, especially with how good his numbers are in Truist.
We just can’t afford to split the first two like we did last year.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:26 pm to volfan30
quote:
I’m not trying to be a dick but why are we acting like he’s unbeatable,
Wait, so if I bring up hitting stats from the “last 2 months” that’s an anomaly that shouldn’t matter, but you can bring up the one time we got to Wheeler in like his last 7 starts against us?
C’mon man, don’t be that dumb.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:27 pm to Broski
Game 1 is a must win no matter who we play considering the advantage we’ll have in the pitching matchup.
All 4 teams who had the long layoff did look like shite in game 1 last year, or at least very rusty, so hopefully that changes.
All 4 teams who had the long layoff did look like shite in game 1 last year, or at least very rusty, so hopefully that changes.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:27 pm to volfan30
quote:
Didn’t the Braves just knock Wheeler around like 2 weeks ago? I’m not trying to be a dick but why are we acting like he’s unbeatable, especially when both of his starts will be at Truist. He’s literally the only guy we did beat last year and they will have to win twice to even get to a second start for him.
If you remember that game, the Braves won because Wright was unreal and we got lucky with Olson and Riley infield hits to bring the runs home. Didn't hit him hard at all that night.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:29 pm to Broski
The Braves will be favored in both games against Wheeler. They were favored against him in Philly two weeks ago. Nothing about this team is an anomaly. They are the best team, betting favorites, etc. with 2 elite starters and the best offense in the modern era.
You think I’m cherry picking to find positives? It’s much more difficult to find negatives or reasons to act like they’re destined to fail.
You think I’m cherry picking to find positives? It’s much more difficult to find negatives or reasons to act like they’re destined to fail.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:31 pm to volfan30
quote:
2 elite starters
In Strider's last 5 starts, he has given up 18 runs in 28.1 innings. If you consider that elite, then you have lower standards than I do.
I also don't assume that the offense will put up 6-7 runs every night in the playoffs.
I also have less than zero confidence in Elder in a playoff start.
This post was edited on 9/26/23 at 8:38 pm
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:32 pm to volfan30
quote:
You think I’m cherry picking to find positives?
Never said that, just want you to argue in good faith.
You can’t say I’m insane for thinking the Phillies have been playing baseball just as good as us over the last two months out of one side of your mouth then say we shouldn’t be worried about Wheeler because of that one time we got him out of the other side.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:33 pm to volfan30
Annoying to not score that 4th run in the 6th.
Not a huge fan of the lineup construction tonight even with Arica’s numbers against lefties. Not who I want batting 6th after the big boppers late in the game against the elite righty relievers. Will be interesting to see what we do against lefties in the playoffs lineup construction wise.
Not a huge fan of the lineup construction tonight even with Arica’s numbers against lefties. Not who I want batting 6th after the big boppers late in the game against the elite righty relievers. Will be interesting to see what we do against lefties in the playoffs lineup construction wise.
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