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re: Help me with this bet
Posted on 9/14/23 at 9:33 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
Posted on 9/14/23 at 9:33 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
Break it down for me…. Assuming
Arizona vs Brewers
Brewers vs Dodgers
Brewers vs Braves
I assume betting $1000 on AZ and if they lose I’m down 1k but still have the Brewers bet.
So now I bet $3k on dodgers…. And if they lose I’m down $4k but still have brewers bet.
Then bet 5k on braves… and if I lose I’m down 9k but still have brewera bet?
Arizona vs Brewers
Brewers vs Dodgers
Brewers vs Braves
I assume betting $1000 on AZ and if they lose I’m down 1k but still have the Brewers bet.
So now I bet $3k on dodgers…. And if they lose I’m down $4k but still have brewers bet.
Then bet 5k on braves… and if I lose I’m down 9k but still have brewera bet?
Posted on 9/15/23 at 3:27 am to AZTiger7072
quote:
Break it down for me…. Assuming Arizona vs Brewers Brewers vs Dodgers Brewers vs Braves I assume betting $1000 on AZ and if they lose I’m down 1k but still have the Brewers bet. So now I bet $3k on dodgers…. And if they lose I’m down $4k but still have brewers bet. Then bet 5k on braves… and if I lose I’m down 9k but still have brewera bet?
Your proposal doesn’t account for the fact the Brewers have to win the World Series. (Based on your op).
You’d enter the World Series $9000 down, with a potential to win $10,800 on the Brewers for a net $1800. If the Brewers lose the World Series you’d be down $9050.
If did Brewers vs….
Arizona $600 ($300 > just cashing out now=$600) or brewers Alive
LA $1300 ($$400> just cashing out = $700) or Brewers Alive
ATL $2700 ($500 > just cashing out now = $800) or Brewers Alive
AL $5500 ($600 > just cashing out now = $900) or Brewers win $10,800 - 10,100, which is $700 (or $400 > just cashing out now)
BUT - that’s assuming you could get even money bets on all those other teams, where you probably can’t on the Dodgers and Braves….
So just my .02…either let the whole thing ride to win the big prize….OR cash in now for the $300, take $100 profit and bet $200 to win WS at 24-1
Posted on 9/15/23 at 7:14 am to AZTiger7072
quote:
Arizona vs Brewers Brewers vs Dodgers Brewers vs Braves I assume betting $1000 on AZ and if they lose I’m down 1k but still have the Brewers bet. So now I bet $3k on dodgers…. And if they lose I’m down $4k but still have brewers bet. Then bet 5k on braves… and if I lose I’m down 9k but still have brewera bet?
Going to be very difficult to hedge this round by round.
Here is how it breaks down
Pre WC Round
Total Bet: $50
Total Potential Win: $10,800
WC Round
$1,000 Hedge vs. Dbacks (projected +125 odds vs. MIL)
Remaining Potential Win w/ WS Win: $9,800
Total Profit w/ Dbacks series win: $1,200
NLDS
$3,000 Hedge vs. Dodgers (projected -180 odds vs. MIL)
Remaining Potential Win w/ WS win: $6,800
Total Profit w/ Dodgers series win: $616
NLCS
$5,000 Hedge vs. Braves (projected -200 odds vs. Brewers)
Remaining Potential Win w/ WS Win: $1,800
Total Profit w/ Braves series win: -$1,550
You are losing cash in this scenario if they lose to the Braves in the NLCS and you are also extremely exposed entering the WS. You would essentially have somewhere around a -475 ticket on the Brewers ($9,000 bet to win $1,800) in the WS when they will likely be underdogs to Houston, Tampa or Baltimore in that round too.
Cash it now (or after they clinch the central) if you are concerned about locking in profit and put $50 or $100 on them to win the WS.
Your other option is letting it ride. I don’t think you are going to get to a profitable hedging opportunity unless they get a series lead in the NLCS or possibly after the Dodgers series if the Braves are upset by somebody other than the Phillies in the other NLDS.
This post was edited on 9/15/23 at 7:18 am
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