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Started By
Message
Mortgage applications/buyer demand dropped to a 28-year low
Posted on 2/22/23 at 5:52 pm
Posted on 2/22/23 at 5:52 pm
quote:
Mortgage Applications to buy a house just collapsed to an index level of 147
That's the lowest level of buyer demand in 28 YEARS.
Lower than anything we saw in the 2008 Crash.
Down 41% from last year.
quote:
Why is Mortgage Demand collapsing so much?
Because both Home Prices AND Mortgage Rates are way too high.
Creating a situation where the monthly payment for a homebuyer (Mtg+Tax+Insurance) is now over $2,500/month.
In the 2006-07 Bubble it peaked at $1,400/month.
quote:
And Income Growth has NOT kept up with these increase in the cost to buy house.
Right now the House Payment / Median Income Ratio is 40%.
Meaning the typical American family CANNOT AFFORD to buy a house.
This isn't a "choice". It's simple math.
quote:
Which makes the propaganda being spewed about a "recovery" in the Housing Market absolutely laughable.
Nothing in the fundamental data supports a recovery.
In fact, quite the opposite when you consider a Recession and increased foreclosures are likely on the horizon.
The default rate on FHA loans is going up fast right now.
Currently it's visible in the 30-day default rate.
But soon it could spread to 60 and 90-day defaults, which would be what triggers foreclosure filings.
Good Twitter Thread
29
Posted on 2/22/23 at 5:55 pm to stout
My uncle is a realtor in Texas and he said aside from the rates as you mentioned, people still think they can get 2020/2021 money for their house and they just sit for months.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 5:56 pm to stout
You would be crazy to buy now imo
Posted on 2/22/23 at 5:56 pm to stout
quote:
It's simple math.
..or in this case, meth.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 5:56 pm to stout
So do not buy a house at this time?
Posted on 2/22/23 at 5:56 pm to stout
Does this mean the price of houses will go down?
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:00 pm to stout
Recession Threat = [Imminent] - Elapsed
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:00 pm to stout
quote:
And Income Growth has NOT kept up with these increase in the cost to buy house.
But we’ve been told by some here it’s just millennials buying too many luxury items to save up for a house.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:11 pm to stout
That's why I'm doordashing on the side. Next year may be even worse. I can live off of closing maybe a loan or two a month, but I want to wipe out all of my debt so I could make it a few months without if I needed to. Many many people will drop out of the business if it gets that bad.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:21 pm to stout
I don't care what you say...we are not in a recession.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:23 pm to stout
Realtors and lenders made life changing money the last 2 years. Hope they saved some of it.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:43 pm to stout
Not in Huntsville Alabama. Just had a 3/2 shack in a rougher part of town get flipped for $180000. 5 years ago someone may have paid 35k for it as is. fricking ridiculous.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:44 pm to stout
More housing fear porn from the neighborhood economic real estate expert.
Yea I’m sure those are the only reasons. No mention of supply not even once.
quote:
Why is Mortgage Demand collapsing so much?
Because both Home Prices AND Mortgage Rates are way too high.
Yea I’m sure those are the only reasons. No mention of supply not even once.
This post was edited on 2/22/23 at 6:47 pm
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:48 pm to stout
Funny, the tiktok realtors have come out with new talking points that inventory is low so you need to bid high... never mind the non existent buyer.
We are renting for a year right now after getting out of a neighborhood that was trending down in the quality of resident but NOT the price of houses... YET. I hope the market tanks for selfish reasons, I will get into some rentals and a new house when/if that happens since we are in a good position to jump on a deal right now.
We are renting for a year right now after getting out of a neighborhood that was trending down in the quality of resident but NOT the price of houses... YET. I hope the market tanks for selfish reasons, I will get into some rentals and a new house when/if that happens since we are in a good position to jump on a deal right now.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 6:49 pm to stout
We need a suggestion and scenario from Oweo to determine how to deal with this.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 7:07 pm to stout
I just wish medium to large size tracts of undeveloped land would drop.
I'm liquid and ready in a second's notice but not seeing any drop. There are going to be some tax lien sales coming up i have my eye on but who knows.
I'm liquid and ready in a second's notice but not seeing any drop. There are going to be some tax lien sales coming up i have my eye on but who knows.
This post was edited on 2/22/23 at 7:14 pm
Posted on 2/22/23 at 7:13 pm to stout
Potential sellers are either not listing at all or listing at the inflated price and letting it sit.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 8:01 pm to stout
FJB
Posted on 2/22/23 at 8:13 pm to stout
Listed my house a couple weeks back. 12 viewings in 2 days and under contract within 48 hrs. location and pricing still move houses
Posted on 2/22/23 at 8:25 pm to stout
Blackrock is so happy rn.
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