re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

An aside, and excuse it if it derails anything.

I found this in my bookmarks from 2016.

The Strafor (Think Tank) "Decade Forecast," what they told their clients the world would - in their opinion - look like in 10 years (2025) based on various trends. Always interesting to look back on this and see if the professional brains are on the money or not. (I couldn't find the actual report that it once leaked to, but this summary article wraps up the important points).

News.com.au: "The world in 2025: China loses power, Russia 'won't exist'"

more in-depth summary:

Business Insider: 10 year Forecast 2015-2025

quote:

---

The Strafor

---

Startup in Baton Rouge moved to Austin because they couldn't attract liberal democrat researchers to Louisiana

quote:

---

Startup in Baton Rouge moved to Austin because they couldn't attract liberal democrat researchers to Louisiana

---

The Chief Security Officer for Stratfor is a close family friend, he is definitely not a liberal. He might be the nicest person I have ever met, but he's also killed multiple people. Me and my brother overheard him telling my dad some stories from his counterterrorism missions one night, wild stuff you won't find in a book.

quote:

---

The Chief Security Officer for Stratfor is a close family friend, he is definitely not a liberal

---

Well, I gave the actual reason that it left Baton Rouge. I didn't say that all were leftists, but they had problems attracting academic researchers to Baton Rouge because it wasn't left wing enough. It doesn't matter it's defunct for several years now.

quote:

---

Well, I gave the actual reason that it left Baton Rouge. I didn't say that all were leftists, but they had problems attracting academic researchers to Baton Rouge because it wasn't left wing enough. It doesn't matter it's defunct for several years now.

---

Does this seem like a very strange place for an office for that in any event?

Someone I work with left to take a job at a think tank in BR, maybe 2 or 3 years ago, but I can't remember the name or if it was Stratfor... but that place closed within months, apparently...

I grew up in the Episcopal Church, Protestantism is heresy.

These Churches also carry with them a lot of bad Western ideas. You’re better off banning them. There’s no upside to have some fruit loops Anglican Church in your country.

I thought this was interesting

https://www.dailywire.com/news/u-s-military-unveils-next-generation-naval-weapon

quote:

---

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) released new photos of a next generation weapon that is in development for the U.S. Military this week, a long-range, uncrewed underwater vehicle (UUV) capable of firing a payload at enemy targets.

The Manta Ray prototype built by Northrop Grumman is being tested in the waters off the coast of Southern California, the agency said in a statement.

“Testing demonstrated at-sea hydrodynamic performance, including submerged operations using all the vehicle’s modes of propulsion and steering: buoyancy, propellers, and control surfaces,” the statement said. “Northrop Grumman shipped the Manta Ray prototype in subsections from the build location in Maryland to its test location in California. The demonstrated ease of shipping and assembly supports the possibility of rapid deployment throughout the world without crowding valuable pier space at naval facilities.”

Manta Ray will be able to operate for long-range and long-duration missions in a wide variety of maritime environments “without the need for human-present logistic support or maintenance offer the potential for persistent operations in forward environments.”

---

quote:

---

The Manta Ray program plans to advance new groundbreaking technologies including, but not limited to:

Novel energy management techniques for UUV operations and undersea energy harvesting techniques at operationally relevant depths;
Low-power, high efficiency undersea propulsion systems;
New low-power means of underwater detection and classification of hazards or counter detection threats;
Mission management approaches for extended durations while accounting for dynamic maritime environments;
Unique approaches for leveraging existing maritime data sets and exploiting novel maritime parameters for high-efficiency navigation and/or C3; and
New approaches to mitigate biofouling, corrosion, and other material degradation for long duration missions.

---

quote:

---

Does this seem like a very strange place for an office for that in any event?

---

Not at all, Friedman had group at LSU (which does attract former think tank workers to their PhD programs in international studies, I've met a few) which led to the company at the business incubator of the former mall on Florida Ave, which had been shutdown for at least several years. So they had state subsidies for the startup here. They draw talent not from government but from universities. Stratfor left BR around 15 years ago.

This is where Peter Zeihan started out. Both Peter and Stratfor are good at demographics and overall macroeconomics, but don't know shiite from shinola about various segments of economic systems, especially oil/gas extraction, processing, etc.... Peter has proven that time and again on his YouTube channel. He claims he gets info from the CIA, who the phuck knows how true that is.

Random tweets

quote:

---

The Latvian army has started digging defense ditches near the border with Russia

The first defensive line will be created at a distance of about a kilometer from the border with Russia, near the Terehovo border checkpoint in the Ludza region.

Latvia plans to spend €300 million over five years to strengthen its borders.

---

LINK

quote:

---

After 800 days since Russian-Ukrainian War began Russian Army currently control 84413 Sq Km, which corresponds to 13,98% of Ukraine: ????????
- Donetsk People's Republic forces controls 15731 Km^2 (59,32% of Donetsk oblast)
- Luhansk People's Republic forces controls 26285 Km^2 (98,5% of Luhansk oblast)

---

LINK

quote:

---

Italy plans to transfer the SAMP/T air defense system to Ukraine, La Repubblica has quoted government sources as saying

According to the newspaper, the new deliveries may also include Stinger surface-to-air missiles.

---

LINK

quote:

---

“Ninety percent of the wounded that come through here (stabilization point) are targeted either by FPV or by drone-dropped munitions.”

---

Battle of Chasiv Yar begins: On the ground with Ukrainian forces defending city key to Russia’s plans

quote:

---

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron has visited Lviv

"Minister Cameron now has his own tree in Lviv, which means a good reason to come back to Ukraine with good news many more times," wrote the city's mayor Andriy Sadovoy.

---

LINK

quote:

---

Czechia does not support those who evade military conscription

This was stated by the head of the foreign Minister of Czechia Jan Lipavsky:

"I understand the problem of departure of Ukrainian men of conscription age. Czechia has long supported Ukrainian refugees and we accept them on our territory. But not those who try to avoid conscription duty," the Novinky local edition quoted Lipavsky as saying.

---

LINK

quote:

---

Ankara does not intend to transfer its S-400 systems to any country, including Ukraine, Turkish Defense Minister says.

---

LINK

quote:

---

"Dozens of (ATACMS) missiles every few months.." is considered a "surge" in production.

The US defense industrial base isn't currently fit to supply munitions & war materiel at scale. This is just one more example highlighting it.

---

LINK

quote:

---

The President's Office has twice rejected a petition to unblock the provision of weapons and assistance to the 12th Special Forces Brigade Azov by the United States.

"Azov defended Mariupol in 2022 with limited resources and outdated weapons. This was the result of amendments to US laws that have been in effect since 2017, which block "the provision of weapons and training or other assistance to the Azov battalion," the military explained.

---

LINK

quote:

---

Russian media reports explosions in the Moscow and Leningrad regions - preliminary, it was a drone attack

---

LINK

quote:

---

U.K. Foreign Secretary, David Cameron during an Official Visit today to the Ukrainian Capital of Kyiv during which he met with President Zelensky and several other Senior Ukrainian Officials, stated that Ukraine has the “Right” to utilize British-Provided Weapons, likely including but not limited to “Storm Shadow” Long-Range Cruise Missiles, against Russian Territory.

---

LINK

quote:

---

"Ukraine stands on the edge of the abyss"

Interview with Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, for The Economist.

? According to him, things are as difficult now as they have never been since the first days of the full-scale conflict, and could get even worse.

"Our problem is very simple - we have no weapons. They always knew that April and May would be a difficult time for us," Skibitsky says.

? Russian troops have been ordered to "capture something" for Victory Day celebrations in Moscow on May 9 or, failing that, for Putin's visit to Beijing a week later.

? The Russian army is no longer the arrogant organization it was in 2022, the general says, and now operates as "a single organism, with a clear plan and under a single command."

? The Russian Armed Forces offensive will begin in late May and early June. The main blow is expected in Donbas, but they will also prepare for an offensive around Kharkiv and Sumy regions.

---

LINK

quote:

---

That was an important air base when we were neck-deep in the war on terror... now Niger is lining up to be a troublemaker in the region, itself.

Let the Russians spread their military thin...

---

All well and good, but much like Afghanistan how you achieve that end goal matters. We look weak and stupid. We’re “fighting” the Russians in Ukraine and simultaneously being kicked out of our base by the Russians in Africa. Looks great