re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

quote:

---

That said, I havent heard a good explanation as to how he accessed compartmented information, thats the "C" in TS-SCI. That SCIF needs to be turned inside out.

---

A SCIF is just a room. They can very. The ones I worked in looked identical, but any physical documents are relative to that installation. The computers in there, however, are connected to SIPRNET which is were the real goods are. Depending on his access credentials for SIPRNET, this is where the information likely came from and he most likely accessed it via a terminal.

"turning" the SCIF inside and out wouldn't really amount to much. It is not standard practice to keep physical documents in a SCIF unless the installation deals with Originals.

You likely googled the term SCIF and pulled out the "Compartmented" word and ran with it. This "word" is again, relative to the installation. Each installation will have a few and likely one per organization for their sensitive materials onsite. However again, its not ideal for physicals to be stored at all unless original and absolutely needed.

quote:

---

I served under Bush/Obama for reference. Can only imagine it kept going downhill after I got out.

---

Old friend served in Vietnam on an LST making mail and supplies runs from offshore to up the Mekong. Radioman onboard had been transferred from where he was before due would do anything to get high. Still had crypto clearance. Nothing the LST did was even secret.

Nord Stream news: the Norwegian MoD has confirmed that a specific Russian vessel was in the area, one that had a mini-sub onboard that would have been perfect for the operation.

LINK

Defense confirms: Russia had special vessel near Nord Stream's detonation point

quote:

---

The Russian special vessel SS-750 was near the Nord Stream pipes four days before the pipes were blown up on September 26 last year. The special vessel is designed to carry out operations under the sea and has a mini submarine of the AS-26 Priz type on board.

The Norwegian Defense Command confirms in a response to a document inspection that 26 photos of the Russian vessel were taken from a Danish patrol boat that was in the area east of Bornholm on 22 September 2022.

"It's incredibly interesting. The SS-750 is a special vessel that is designed precisely for underwater operations,' says the Swedish researcher, Russia expert and intelligence expert Joakim von Braun.

Jacob Kaarsbo, who is a senior analyst at the think tank Europe and previously worked for 15 years in the Defense Intelligence Service, believes that the information "sheds light on what was going on in the area in the days before".

"The SS-750 is the most interesting vessel to confirm, because we know it has the capacity to carry out such an operation," says Jacob Kaarsbo.

Information has previously revealed that the Norwegian Defense Command is in possession of 112 images of Russian vessels in the area. But this is the first time that the defense has confirmed that it is the specific Russian vessel SS-750 with the mini-submarine on board.

At the same time, the Norwegian Defense Command refuses to provide access to the photos of the Russian special vessel, as the photos are "of an intelligence nature" and "are part of the intelligence work".

---

quote:

---

The German media T-Online and the open source intelligence analyst Oliver Alexander have previously described that the special vessel SS-750 was one of a total of six Russian naval vessels that may have been in the area in the days leading up to the blasting of the pipelines. They based this, among other things, on information from anonymous sources and satellite images that showed that SS-750 had left the port in Kaliningrad at the same time as, among others, the vessels Aleksandr Frolov and SB-123.

These satellite photos, along with AIS data from a tugboat, indicate that SS-750 sailed from Kaliningrad at 00:22 on 21 September 2022. AIS transmitters are typically used by larger vessels to supplement radars. They send signals about the ship's name, number, direction, draft and speed and can thus be used to map the movement of vessels.

The SS-750 sailed even without the AIS on. However, the tug Alexandr Frolov had its AIS on when departing from the Russian naval port. AIS data from this vessel shows that the convoy of naval vessels headed for Bornholm, but north of Poland the tug's AIS was also switched off. Until now, it has been assumed that the SS-750 and the five other vessels continued to the area where the Nord Stream pipes were blown up a few days later. Now the Defense Command has confirmed that the SS-750 was observed in the area.

"This is clear confirmation. That vessel is part of Russia's readiness for submarines and underwater operations. In theory, that vessel may well have been there for other reasons, but the timing to be in exactly that place at that time is special,' says analyst Oliver Alexander.

---

quote:

---

Holy hyperbole

---

Is it though?

It is kind of worrisome that it has taken so long and has been discussed as nauseum in the media around the world. Of course, no one really knows where its going to come or to what extent Ukraine plans on using all of this western armament, but everyone and their mommas know that it is coming at some point in the next month or so. Yes, UAF has amassed a bunch of new weaponry that will be at its disposal, but Russia has had 8 months or so to fortify their positions. Those 5 eastern-most oblasts in Ukraine (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Crimea) are fortresses. Especially Zap and Crimea.

I want the Ukrainian offensive to be successful just as much as everyone else, but I am worried they telegraphed everything way too early and just won't have enough resources to see it all the way through.

quote:

---

whether Russia's military truly is a paper tiger.

---

I think that's already kind of obvious that they are far behind when it comes to perception vs reality on the world stage. NATO or the US would absolutely wipe the floor with them if you took away both side's nukes and both sides were committed to total victory over the other. (I know, I kno...hypotheticals and such, but it's true)

The amount of western arms in Ukraine that basically stopped Russia stone cold pales in comparison to what could truly be brought down on them. But I agree that every intelligence apparatus in the world will be (and has been) taking some serious notes as they watch how this unfolds over the next few months.

quote:

---

Nord Stream news: the Norwegian MoD has confirmed that a specific Russian vessel was in the area, one that had a mini-sub onboard that would have been perfect for the operation.

---

Blown at deepest sections thus less saltwater in the pipeline and easiest sections to replace, due less to replace.

It’s a back and forth for both sides. Anything with a fixed location that needs to be close to the front is at risk for drones. Weather artillery spotter, bomber drones or suicide drones.

Watched one of a Russia s-300 being blow up on a video yesterday

Like many of you, I have some concerns with the upcoming Ukrainian Offensive and their ability to prevail, not their ability to fight or their hearts just will they be properly supplied and lucky.

On the other hand I have zero doubts that the Russians are are completely incompetent

Two officers who were in command of Jack Teixeira, the Massachusetts Air National Guardsman who is accused of leaking intelligence documents over a social platform, have been temporarily suspended, the U.S. Air Force said.

According to Air Force Spokesperson Ann Stefanek, the Air Force suspended two commanders of his unit and temporarily removed their access to classified systems and information.

"The commander of the 102nd Intelligence Wing at Otis Air National Guard Base, Massachusetts, has suspended the commander of the 102nd Intelligence Support Squadron pending further investigation into the unauthorized disclosure of classified information," Stefanek said in a statement to Fox News.

The Air Force also suspended the detachment commander overseeing administrative support for airmen at the unit.