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Message
re: Tesla.....Tech vs Financial Realities.....Discuss The Investment Thesis
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:16 am to dabigfella
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:16 am to dabigfella
quote:Wtf, man? Is this a mansion? I thought Texas had cheap power due to the "deregulation".
my electric bill has gone from $1000 or so in the summers to about $350
1
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:18 am to Korkstand
not really a mansion, 4500 sq ft, but the home is older 1998 so its inefficient I suppose. I dont know I havent really looked into options really
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:28 am to dabigfella
quote:
not really a mansion, 4500 sq ft, but the home is older 1998 so its inefficient I suppose. I dont know I havent really looked into options really
while 4500 SF is pretty big, $1000 a month still seems ridiculous. I spend under $300 during the summer on a 2500 SF house and I never put it above 75, and keep it 70 at night.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:32 am to Hermit Crab
just summers, in the winters it was $300-400. I really dont know why it is that high, but i thought it was high thats why I invested in the solar city system, its been great thus far, had it 2 months now and the savings over 20 years should be staggering for what I paid before vs what Im paying now
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:34 am to dabigfella
(no message)
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:37 am to dabigfella
quote:
$1000 or so in the summers to about $350
Jesus God Almighty. Our gas/electric combined is never higher than about $125. Doesn't matter if it is 90 degrees out in the summer or there is 3 feet of snow out in the winter.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:51 am to TigerFanatic99
I really dont know man, anyways dont really wanna derail the thread with all this electricity cost talk. I just wanted other peoples opinions on the financial realities of tesla vs the product and whether they felt the investment was warranted. Korkstand made some great points about tesla being where other tech companies are/were. The thing about that is tesla is selling a product thats so much pricier than any other tech company ever sold like apple,google,microsoft, etc. The demand is clearly the there for their products, I guess I was looking for more people who understood their financial position and the realities of it. All you read online is how solar city deal is going to kill tesla, but I cant believe musk would make such a deal and allow that to happen but the bears thesis is musk was just bailing out SCTY bc his family ran it and it would look bad for tesla. I dont wanna believe the bears on it, but the bond market is not looking at tesla or solar city with enthusiasm at this point.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:54 am to dabigfella
quote:I cannot imagine a scenario where Musk will let that happen. I know it seems like I'm putting a lot of faith in one man, and I am, but that's just how I see it.
so you dont forsee bankruptcy on the horizon?
quote:Supposedly there was lots of interest (according to a SolarCity exec, I think), and their reasoning for Musk and cousins for buying the bulk was that it was a cheap way to put cash in.
I guess I just get scared when I see where 2018 puts are priced and then when I see solar city bonds having no interest and getting that 6.5% yield when interest rates are at record lows.
quote:Who needs loans when Joe Public will give you half a billion for pre-orders?
I guess I thought it meant capital markets had no more interest in loaning them money.
quote:Being honest here, you have more money in personal vehicles than I have in the market, so take all of my advice/commentary with a grain of salt.
So would you be a buyer up here?
That said, obviously I wouldn't put all my eggs in the Tesla basket, but if I had extra cash I would put a sizable bet on it.
I know that I brush off Tesla's financial "issues", but I also know that in the end the finances are the only thing that matters. The stock has been going sideways for a while now, and I think that will continue until we start seeing real figures as to how fast they can build the Model 3's, as well as seeing the gigafactory prove itself.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:55 am to dabigfella
quote:
my electric bill has gone from $1000 or so in the summers
My house isn't near that size, but it was built in 1969, has shitty insulation, single pane windows, electric stove, electric oven, electric dryer, and the HVAC is 17 years old. The highest bill I've ever had was last month at $365, which is more than double the average amount. Glad you got it down, but it seems like something is amiss.
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 11:56 am
Posted on 8/25/16 at 12:01 pm to Korkstand
see im totally with you, i dont mind the debts bc of the time in history we are in, a time in which money is cheaper than ever. Literally borrowing money historically has never been cheaper, so I would love a growth company like tesla to pile on debt, as long as its available. My fear is though the markets are beginning to say ok elon, enough, show us the money because the SCTY bonds I suspect nobody wanted to touch thus elon,lyndon, and peter all bought up like 80% of them.
I fear any kind of economic downturn and the growth stalls, access to capital shuts off, those are the things I fear, not the product. When I read analysts saying the chevy bolt might affect model 3 sales I LOL because its comical that a complete POS like that would hurt tesla is even a viable thing. GM would never have 500 people much less 400,000 lineup to preorder a chevy bolt.
Musk himself says tesla will be a trillion dollar company one day, I dont know why but I believe him. I just think electric cars are the future, I think solar panels are the future, and tesla is at the forefront of both fields. I just want the share count to stop going up with dilution. I dont mind tesla borrowing lots of money, just not via offerings diluting existing shareholders. Thanks for all your input, I appreciate it very much
I fear any kind of economic downturn and the growth stalls, access to capital shuts off, those are the things I fear, not the product. When I read analysts saying the chevy bolt might affect model 3 sales I LOL because its comical that a complete POS like that would hurt tesla is even a viable thing. GM would never have 500 people much less 400,000 lineup to preorder a chevy bolt.
Musk himself says tesla will be a trillion dollar company one day, I dont know why but I believe him. I just think electric cars are the future, I think solar panels are the future, and tesla is at the forefront of both fields. I just want the share count to stop going up with dilution. I dont mind tesla borrowing lots of money, just not via offerings diluting existing shareholders. Thanks for all your input, I appreciate it very much
Posted on 8/25/16 at 12:05 pm to Korkstand
quote:
They have all this inertia going this direction, multiplied by the inertia of big oil, that I can't see any of the big boys doing what's necessary to compete with Tesla for the foreseeable future.
There have been multiple articles out recently claiming there will be 15+ electric cars on the market by 2020. Everyone and his brother is working on autonomous cars. No wonder Elon wants to build 500,000 vehicles in 2018 instead of 2020, which was his previous goal. Many don't think that's achievable, nor do they believe the Model 3 is a $35,000 car.
On top of all the looming competition and dubious promises, Elon's been claiming for a couple of years that Tesla will be bigger than Apple and/or a trillion dollar company in a few years. These sorts of things, plus the refundable $1000 deposit on the non-existent Model 3, which was done to game the stock, remind me more and more of PT Barnum. As previously noted, he and his cousins are putting their money where their mouths are, but that's not seen as a particularly good thing.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 12:12 pm to Spock's Eyebrow
spock see my thing is, competition doesnt worry me man. Tesla has a brand one could argue is more powerful than BMW,Mercedes,Etc. I dont see ford,gm,volvo as competition in that whoever wants an electric tesla does not want a ford,gm,etc. Its like a ferrari, whoever wants that car isnt going to buy a corvette z06 merely bc its faster. Its just reality. People overpay for brands. Google has incredible products yet the iphone makes up 15% of the smart phone market yet almost all the profits.Have you seen the coming chevy bolt? Its heinous.
The thing tesla has that no dealer will ever have is the buying experience. No haggling,negotiating, shopping around trying to get the best deal vs invoice, etc all the nonsense involved with traditional car shopping. I almost got a tesla a couple years ago, but texas, bless its heart being such a backwards place, I walked into the showroom at the galleria and the sales people there were not sales people and were not allowed to help me or discuss the cars pricing, they could only give me a test drive, nothing more.
Like korkstand mentioned, the charging network infrastructure, that could be our gas stations of the future. Other cars will probably pay to use them because you cant charge your electric whatever on there now and GM isnt rolling out chargers yet. I own gas stations and that network intrigues me and its quadrupling in size over the next 2 years.
The infrastructure of the solar panels, the gigafactory, the charging network. I see it all being a monster in the future, my fears are it doesnt materialize bc of money. If this was apple with $200B I would throw my lifesavings at it and never think twice, this type of stuff it is the future but Im just scared tesla either wont get there or they will dilute shareholders into oblivion to get there. Thats why I wanted to talk about it all with some other bright fans of the tech.
The thing tesla has that no dealer will ever have is the buying experience. No haggling,negotiating, shopping around trying to get the best deal vs invoice, etc all the nonsense involved with traditional car shopping. I almost got a tesla a couple years ago, but texas, bless its heart being such a backwards place, I walked into the showroom at the galleria and the sales people there were not sales people and were not allowed to help me or discuss the cars pricing, they could only give me a test drive, nothing more.
Like korkstand mentioned, the charging network infrastructure, that could be our gas stations of the future. Other cars will probably pay to use them because you cant charge your electric whatever on there now and GM isnt rolling out chargers yet. I own gas stations and that network intrigues me and its quadrupling in size over the next 2 years.
The infrastructure of the solar panels, the gigafactory, the charging network. I see it all being a monster in the future, my fears are it doesnt materialize bc of money. If this was apple with $200B I would throw my lifesavings at it and never think twice, this type of stuff it is the future but Im just scared tesla either wont get there or they will dilute shareholders into oblivion to get there. Thats why I wanted to talk about it all with some other bright fans of the tech.
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 8/25/16 at 12:24 pm to Spock's Eyebrow
quote:And at least 3 of them will be Tesla models. How many of the other 12+ do you think will have the appeal of Tesla, and how many do you think will have the appeal of a Volt/Leaf/Prius? And where will all those batteries come from? And where will they charge on road trips?
There have been multiple articles out recently claiming there will be 15+ electric cars on the market by 2020.
quote:Yep, led by Google and Tesla. Not GM, Ford, etc. It is a new game with new players. And the game is fast-paced. A lot of people are assuming that the big boys are just biding their time, waiting for their opportunity to pounce and put Tesla away. Why? Why wait? What are they waiting for? Will they wait until Tesla starts selling 100k cars/year? 500k? A million? Seems easier to do it now, doesn't it? Where are their answers? It seems they are either unable or unwilling to compete with Tesla. And if they are both willing and able, then their problem is they are too slow, which doesn't bode well for them, either.
Everyone and his brother is working on autonomous cars.
quote:I'm not sure I have the time right now, but I would love to make a list of "dubious promises" that Musk has made, sorted by "delivered" and "yet to be delivered".
On top of all the looming competition and dubious promises, Elon's been claiming for a couple of years that Tesla will be bigger than Apple and/or a trillion dollar company in a few years.
quote:You think that was done to game the stock? What do you think is more important to the operation of the company: the stock price, or half a billion in cash?
These sorts of things, plus the refundable $1000 deposit on the non-existent Model 3, which was done to game the stock, remind me more and more of PT Barnum.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 12:27 pm to dabigfella
quote:
I really dont know man, anyways dont really wanna derail the thread with all this electricity cost talk
I'm on-board. My fingers typed while my mind was in shock.
I'm a big fan of Tesla, personally. I don't own stock, nor do I own one of their vehicles, but I would not hesitate to buy one in the future should the right situation present itself.
Musk is crazy as shite, but as previously mentioned, he makes it work, though often at great sacrifice. I think his cause is noble, and people buy into that shite. He's not an Al Gore who just talks, but he is actually doing shite about what he believes in. People really buy into that. Personally, i am hopeful for the future of the company. I think the new factory is going to be game changing on an industry scale, not just lowering Tesla's costs but also opening up a massive revenue generating opportunity if their batteries can be marketed at costs that open the doors for other players to step up.
I also agree that it seems so crazy and different because traditional auto makers do not have incentive to science the technology at great cost because of the oil companies. Musk is doing what he is doing to actively push against that.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 12:31 pm to Korkstand
korkstand I will say this, I personally do believe Elon "games" the stock as mentioned above. Im not a bear but he's always pumping via his twitter and it is important to maintain a high share price when you're constantly diluting the shares. If tesla was $150 he'd have to dilute way harder to raise money and people wouldnt be happy so its certainly in his best interest that tesla be as high as possible when they announce their next offering in the next few months.
I've read many peoples concerns about him tweeting/pumping and saying they hoped teslas board would stop him, but aside from that Im all onboard with your ideas of them selling batteries to everyone, especially now that musk said due to synergies he thinks gigafactory will produce 3x the batteries originally planned.
I've read many peoples concerns about him tweeting/pumping and saying they hoped teslas board would stop him, but aside from that Im all onboard with your ideas of them selling batteries to everyone, especially now that musk said due to synergies he thinks gigafactory will produce 3x the batteries originally planned.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 12:45 pm to dabigfella
quote:
dabigfella
reading all your responses, it sounds like you have already made up your mind on investing in the company and you just want people to confirm that decision. Just do it if you want to so bad.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 12:50 pm to Hermit Crab
No not at all, I like the product but was hoping to hear from others about the financial side of things which is well above my knowledge, all I know is nearly $20b in combined liabilities is a lot for anyone and I know that from the recent solar city offering that it seems more money is getting difficult to acquire so that's why I wanted people to chime in on the realities financially of where it is and where it will be. The product I know is a grand slam that's not a concern of mine
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:11 pm to dabigfella
quote:If publicity is called gaming the stock these days, then I guess he's gaming it. Regardless, as opposed to whatever he says on twitter, I don't believe the Model 3 reservations were done in order to game the stock price. It was done to get cash, and also to gauge interest. I never see anyone accusing Apple of gaming their stock price when they announce pre-order numbers.
korkstand I will say this, I personally do believe Elon "games" the stock as mentioned above. Im not a bear but he's always pumping via his twitter and it is important to maintain a high share price when you're constantly diluting the shares. If tesla was $150 he'd have to dilute way harder to raise money and people wouldnt be happy so its certainly in his best interest that tesla be as high as possible when they announce their next offering in the next few months.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:30 pm to Korkstand
quote:
quote:
Everyone and his brother is working on autonomous cars.
Yep, led by Google and Tesla. Not GM, Ford, etc.
Uh, no. Ford is heavily into autonomous cars and has been making some very bold promises for the 2021 timeframe. Audi is another.
quote:
You think that was done to game the stock? What do you think is more important to the operation of the company: the stock price, or half a billion in cash?
I think it was a publicity stunt. If I were a TSLA investor, you better believe I would have placed one for that trivial amount of money even if I had no interest in ever owning a Tesla. They had to shut down speculators placing multiple reservations, and many will cancel when they realize they won't be getting the tax credit, or other circumstances change in the 2-3 years before they can contemplate taking delivery. Has TSLA even been publishing attrition figures?
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:37 pm to dabigfella
quote:
spock see my thing is, competition doesnt worry me man. Tesla has a brand one could argue is more powerful than BMW,Mercedes,Etc. I dont see ford,gm,volvo as competition in that whoever wants an electric tesla does not want a ford,gm,etc. Its like a ferrari, whoever wants that car isnt going to buy a corvette z06 merely bc its faster. Its just reality. People overpay for brands. Google has incredible products yet the iphone makes up 15% of the smart phone market yet almost all the profits.Have you seen the coming chevy bolt? Its heinous.
To be like iPhone, a Tesla car would have to be a reasonably affordable product with incredible profit margins that is considered worth the premium by enough very loyal customers to make a difference while others consider it an aspirational purchase. Apple kind of threaded the needle on iPhone.
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