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re: Why was it so easy for Trump to get the Sauds to support safe zones?
Posted on 1/29/17 at 8:06 pm to crazy4lsu
Posted on 1/29/17 at 8:06 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
I'm not underestimating anything. Look at the map of the area right now. ISIS still controls large portions of very important territory. There won't be a peace deal until they are dealt with, regardless of safe zones. It's nice that Trump worked this deal out with the KSA (of all people) but the facts on the ground remain.
The reason that the Safe Zone hasn't already been established is because Turkey wants Assad out first, the issue isn't ISIS.
Posted on 1/29/17 at 8:06 pm to joshnorris14
quote:
It's a planned buffer zone that separates Syria from Turkey which would isolate an area for refugees fleeing Syria and be repatriated mostly from Turkey. Trump needs to make Erdogan bend the knee now
Who's troops are going to be on the ground to defend this place, and how will they know who is a refugee and who is a terrorist?
Posted on 1/29/17 at 8:07 pm to joshnorris14
Trump is an alpha. Obama was a pussy.
Posted on 1/29/17 at 8:07 pm to DavidTheGnome
quote:
Who's troops are going to be on the ground to defend this place, and how will they know who is a refugee and who is a terrorist?
Not our problem.
Posted on 1/29/17 at 8:08 pm to DavidTheGnome
quote:
Who's troops are going to be on the ground to defend this place, and how will they know who is a refugee and who is a terrorist?
It would be a coalition. It's not hard to prevent terrorist from getting in and being dangerous when you rigidly control the borders and what comes in them.
Posted on 1/29/17 at 8:10 pm to joshnorris14
quote:
The reason that the Safe Zone hasn't already been established is because Turkey wants Assad out first, the issue isn't ISIS.
Turkey is the wildcard yes, but I'm talking about actual peace and the ability for people to repatriate. Which will be a decade long process. Regardless of how many safe zones there are.
Posted on 1/29/17 at 8:10 pm to joshnorris14
Obama only saw an opportunity to bring chaos into the West. Never let a crisis go to waste.
Posted on 1/29/17 at 8:11 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
Not our problem.
I actually think you believe this too.
Posted on 1/29/17 at 8:11 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Turkey is the wildcard yes, but I'm talking about actual peace and the ability for people to repatriate. Which will be a decade long process. Regardless of how many safe zones there are.
I'm not sure why you think they won't be able to enter the safe zone from Turkey? Maybe I'm missing something, is ISIS fighting along the Turkish border?
Posted on 1/29/17 at 8:11 pm to DavidTheGnome
I'm sure liberal European leaders should be tripping over each over to send troops to safeguard these vulnerable, loving Muslim children and women.
Posted on 1/29/17 at 8:16 pm to joshnorris14
quote:
It would be a coalition. It's not hard to prevent terrorist from getting in and being dangerous when you rigidly control the borders and what comes in them.
So US troops on the ground there? And we are going to rigidly control who gets in in a war zone? How do we vet these people, I doubt we know very much about them at all. Sounds like an expensive pipe dream, and with US troops there an easy way to escalate the war. Probably why Saudi Arabia is in board with it, greater US presence and chance the war escalates to a direction they favor.
Keep chearleading though, I know you "can't stop winning".
This post was edited on 1/29/17 at 8:17 pm
Posted on 1/29/17 at 8:18 pm to joshnorris14
quote:
I'm not sure why you think they won't be able to enter the safe zone from Turkey? Maybe I'm missing something, is ISIS fighting along the Turkish border?
Yes. Northwest of Aleppo (which is 30 miles from Turkey) the Turks are trying to push forward against ISIS positions past Al-Amiyah, while the Syrian Army is trying to push out from Aleppo, where they are surrounded by ISIS to the east and the FSA to the west, with Kurdish positions to the north, positions which have been split by the Turks. There are five different groups (a massive simplification) fighting right at that border.
It can be done but it will be slow going, as there is lots to be resolved.
Posted on 1/29/17 at 8:19 pm to DavidTheGnome
quote:
So US troops on the ground there
Not necessarily
quote:
Sounds like an expensive pipe dream
It's not expensive and not a war zone. It costs $12k to relocate a refugee to the West in short term costs. It would cost $1k to establish them in a safe zone
Posted on 1/29/17 at 8:25 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Yes. Northwest of Aleppo (which is 30 miles from Turkey) the Turks are trying to push forward against ISIS positions past Al-Amiyah, while the Syrian Army is trying to push out from Aleppo, where they are surrounded by ISIS to the east and the FSA to the west, with Kurdish positions to the north, positions which have been split by the Turks. There are five different groups (a massive simplification) fighting right at that border.
Obviously you have a deeper understanding, but I thought the Kurds have control of the North-northwest area along the border which is what would be bordering the safe zone to the west.
Posted on 1/29/17 at 8:30 pm to joshnorris14
The Turks are the wildcard because they have dual interests. They don't want to have anything that resembles a Kurdish autonomous area, but they also don't like Assad. The reason I'm skeptical of the Turks is that Erdogan has been explicitly neo-Ottoman of late, which means that if he so desired, he could try to go all the way to Baghdad to reestablish a former Ottoman frontier. The Turks have successfully split the Kurds, but sometimes they fight the Kurds and sometimes they work with them. It's very confusing and hard to understand. I mean, there are rebel held areas where rebel groups fight primarily one another. The only possibility for a safe zone might be Latakia, which is where the Russian base is. But the situation is changing and hopefully by the time a safe zone is implemented, there will be some clear idea of what areas are safe. As it stands, the fighting will continue for a while.
Posted on 1/29/17 at 8:45 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
The Turks are the wildcard because they have dual interests. They don't want to have anything that resembles a Kurdish autonomous area, but they also don't like Assad.
I get the relationship between the Kurds and Erdogan. But, the Turks were the prime drivers behind the Safe Zone, which would imply their willingness to cooperate, at least in the short run.
Russia is hosting talks next month that Trump will attend, hopefully he can Art of the Deal something up.
But, why would the Turks care if the Kurds established themselves in Northern Iraq/Western Syria? I understand Erdogan has been acting eradically power-hungry as of late, but wouldn't that diffuse tensions in Turkey with the Kurds?
Posted on 1/29/17 at 9:00 pm to joshnorris14
quote:
But, why would the Turks care if the Kurds established themselves in Northern Iraq/Western Syria? I understand Erdogan has been acting eradically power-hungry as of late, but wouldn't that diffuse tensions in Turkey with the Kurds?
One would think, but the issue is that 20% of the population of Turkey is Kurdish or of Kurdish descent. They've been dealing with their own Kurdish problem since the 70's. The Turkish position, for a long time, has been to squash any Kurdish independence movement inside Turkey and undermine it Iraq, Syria, and Iran.
I understand why the Turks want the safe zones, because they are inundated with refugees, but also Turkey is harder to read after the coup attempt. A federally autonomous province in Syria is one of the Kurdish demands, not outright independence (although they are a de facto autonomous republic at the moment), and one would think this would moderate Turkish fears. Many of these Kurds in Northern Syria were ones who were moved from Anatolia to Syria by the Ottomans, so there is already a mistrust. I don't know what will diffuse the tension between the Turks and Kurds, and it certainly adds a new overt conflict to what was before underlying tension.
I have no clue if that answered your question, and I apologize if I didn't.
Posted on 1/29/17 at 9:01 pm to joshnorris14
Probably because America will pay for it.
Posted on 1/29/17 at 9:04 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
I have no clue if that answered your question, and I apologize if I didn't.
Certainly enlightening, thanks. Do you think having Trump at the table will spur progress in this area?
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