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"We need immigration to compensate for low birthrate" lie
Posted on 4/27/24 at 9:52 pm
Posted on 4/27/24 at 9:52 pm
The low birth rate extending perpetually unless we add immigration is incorrect.
We have a weighted average of groups with different birthrates. Over time the aggregate average will increase to a growing population level due to high birth-rate groups (ie conservative Christians, especially groups like the Amish) becoming more numerous and having a higher weight in the average. It is trending down temporarily because of the abrupt change over the last ~10-20 years of mostly liberals to stop having children. Mathematically, the total TFR will trend towards the TFR of the highest groups as they grow more numerous in comparison to other groups.
Bottom line - the fertility rates for the whole country don't represent a homogenous population and therefore we don't need immigration to bring up TFR. We just need the left to continue to erase themselves from existence and conservatives who have children will then become a larger share of the population
We have a weighted average of groups with different birthrates. Over time the aggregate average will increase to a growing population level due to high birth-rate groups (ie conservative Christians, especially groups like the Amish) becoming more numerous and having a higher weight in the average. It is trending down temporarily because of the abrupt change over the last ~10-20 years of mostly liberals to stop having children. Mathematically, the total TFR will trend towards the TFR of the highest groups as they grow more numerous in comparison to other groups.
Bottom line - the fertility rates for the whole country don't represent a homogenous population and therefore we don't need immigration to bring up TFR. We just need the left to continue to erase themselves from existence and conservatives who have children will then become a larger share of the population
This post was edited on 4/27/24 at 10:07 pm
16
Posted on 4/27/24 at 9:55 pm to Browncd81
A population that brings nothing to this country but neediness and criminality is not the solution to any problem.
Posted on 4/27/24 at 10:00 pm to Browncd81
The same people saying we have too many people on the planet and having kids is bad for the environment are also worried about low American birth rates and determine we need to raise this with unfettered immigration…
Well which is it??
Well which is it??
Posted on 4/27/24 at 10:01 pm to LRB1967
quote:
A population that brings nothing to this country but neediness and criminality is not the solution to any problem.
The problem is you have a population that refuses to believe there are differences in people's abilities. We're not bringing in German engineers anymore. There are only so many ditches to dig.
This post was edited on 4/27/24 at 10:01 pm
Posted on 4/27/24 at 10:02 pm to Browncd81
Then why is the government subsidizing abortion through planned parenthood?
Posted on 4/27/24 at 11:55 pm to Browncd81
We don’t really have a shortage of people, we have a shortage of people willing to work. This was always going to be the outcome of a welfare state.
Posted on 4/28/24 at 12:44 am to Browncd81
NO, we need polices to increase beneficial circumstances for married couples and having kids versus penalizing them & having it so expenses to raise kids.
So may of talk are blinded by the root cause to the tricked up situation they we are in.
So may of talk are blinded by the root cause to the tricked up situation they we are in.
Posted on 4/28/24 at 1:55 am to Browncd81
This issue is about the labor replacement rate. It is a major issue and is major factor in our economic situation currently. We will never catch up to what we need. Technology, immigration, or making babies is the only way to fix (conservatives would say 'go back) to the way things used to be. That's just the facts.
Posted on 4/28/24 at 2:12 am to Browncd81
quote:
We have a weighted average of groups with different birthrates. Over time the aggregate average will increase to a growing population level due to high birth-rate groups (ie conservative Christians, especially groups like the Amish) becoming more numerous and having a higher weight in the average. It is trending down temporarily because of the abrupt change over the last ~10-20 years of mostly liberals to stop having children. Mathematically, the total TFR will trend towards the TFR of the highest groups as they grow more numerous in comparison to other groups.
While this is true. You'll still have a point in time where your population is senior heavy (when many of these childless progressives get into their 70s and start to be a burden on the healthcare system.
Edit: I'm not defending illegal immigration, BTW. As another poster said, that's not a solution for any problem.
This post was edited on 4/28/24 at 2:13 am
Posted on 4/28/24 at 3:17 am to Azkiger
quote:
While this is true. You'll still have a point in time where your population is senior heavy (when many of these childless progressives get into their 70s and start to be a burden on the healthcare system. Edit: I'm not defending illegal immigration, BTW. As another poster said, that's not a solution for any problem
Fully agree with you. And don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying in the OP that this will correct quickly, easily, or without a rough transition period such as the childless liberals being at senior age.
But I do take some relief in knowing over time that TFR will recover somewhat and it is the left that will decline in share of population.
Unfortunately, our policy has screwed this up, bc Muslims, many of which are entering illegally, are another higher TFR group that will over time become a higher percentage of population and raise the national birthrate.
Posted on 4/28/24 at 4:19 am to Browncd81
Bring in sub 70 average IQ people to secure our retirement, that seems like a brilliant plan.
Posted on 4/28/24 at 4:43 am to Browncd81
They told us for generations there was a population bomb and quit having children.
Posted on 4/28/24 at 4:54 am to Average_Comments
quote:
This issue is about the labor replacement rate.
We have a service economy being rapidly automized, we pay the obese to sit at home......
Posted on 4/28/24 at 4:58 am to Browncd81
quote:
Bottom line - the fertility rates for the whole country don't represent a homogenous population and therefore we don't need immigration to bring up TFR.
Good luck finding white zoomers to do our grunt work. Its not going to happen.
This country is broken.
Posted on 4/28/24 at 5:04 am to NineLineBind
quote:
We don’t really have a shortage of people, we have a shortage of people willing to work
Bingo.
I dont see this ending well. Were flooding the country with "workers" only to have the work they do automated in a few years.
There are going to be a lot of idle poor running around.
Posted on 4/28/24 at 5:14 am to RogerTheShrubber
Unfortunately most are the dregs of the third world. The Umited States is done.
Posted on 4/28/24 at 5:21 am to Browncd81
Interesting theory that the real birthrate can only be determined by discounting the bottom half, lol.
Posted on 4/28/24 at 6:14 am to Average_Comments
quote:
Technology, immigration, or making babies is the only way to fix (conservatives would say 'go back) to the way things used to be.
I look at this a different way. I think there are several different reasons we have been importing low iq Illegals the last 40 years. AI, Automation, and advanced Robotics are going to take a ton of jobs away. We won’t even need these people to ‘work’. We need them to be consumers for all the goods and services that AI, Automation, and Robotics will provide. I also believe there are some nefarious reasons they are being imported to potentially use them against American citizens to have certain things accomplished that government can’t get passed through because of the constitution.
Posted on 4/28/24 at 6:17 am to Browncd81
This is a deception. The goal is to reduce the global birthrate.
By sending high-birthrate populations into low birthrate systems, they reduce the overall global population.
Is Guatemala, Honduras, or any other country sending migrants to our border pushing LGBTQ?
Our elites know wealth+healthcare+higher standard of living reduces birthrate.
By sending high-birthrate populations into low birthrate systems, they reduce the overall global population.
Is Guatemala, Honduras, or any other country sending migrants to our border pushing LGBTQ?
Our elites know wealth+healthcare+higher standard of living reduces birthrate.
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