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The latest Gallup poll looks promising for Trump

Posted on 5/6/19 at 2:10 pm
Posted by RollTide1987
Augusta, GA
Member since Nov 2009
65090 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 2:10 pm
He’s sitting at 46%, two points higher than Obama’s numbers at the same point of his presidency. Some other examples from past presidents:

1. George H.W. Bush - 76%
2. George W. Bush - 70%
3. Bill Clinton - 51%
4. Donald Trump - 46%
5. Barack Obama - 44%
6. Ronald Reagan - 43%
7. Jimmy Carter - 37%
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115833 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 2:12 pm to
quote:

1. George H.W. Bush - 76%
2. George W. Bush - 70%


quote:

6. Ronald Reagan - 43%


weird
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
69301 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 2:13 pm to
It’s not weird

Bush 2 got a huge approval bump from 9/11

Bush 1 got a huge approval bump from the first gulf war

Reagan was still dealing with 82 recession
Posted by ShortyRob
Member since Oct 2008
82116 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

weird


Not really.

Inflation was out of fricking control when he entered. He had to make moves that initially were painful and the height of the pain was at about the 2 year mark.
Posted by KCT
Psalm 23:5
Member since Feb 2010
38911 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

1. George H.W. Bush - 76% 
2. George W. Bush - 70%



quote:
6. Ronald Reagan - 43%

weird


Very weird, but most people just don't take the time to get informed when it comes to politics. If they did, President Trump's Approval Rating would be 70% right now.
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
69301 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 2:17 pm to
While I do agree media plays a role, trump can be his own worst enemy

His approval would be a few points higher if he stopped saying dumb shite on twitter
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
123915 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

6. Ronald Reagan - 43%


weird
In 1982 we were just exiting the Federal Reserve's extreme-interest-rate manufactured recession. Reaganomics had not yet taken hold.
Posted by KCT
Psalm 23:5
Member since Feb 2010
38911 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 2:21 pm to
quote:

His approval would be a few points higher if he stopped saying dumb shite on twitter


Two different independent studies showed that the media gave Trump 93% and 94% negative coverage, respectively. I might not like every tweet, either, but Trump has to have some unfiltered source that he can use to reach the public.
Posted by TheGator
Member since Mar 2017
164 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 2:23 pm to
His twitter account is the reason I love him.
Posted by TheHarahanian
Actually not Harahan as of 6/2023
Member since May 2017
19520 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 2:25 pm to

I want the MSM to control the polling that the public sees from now until the 2020 election, because I know they'll make the same mistake they did last time and show their candidates leading in every poll.

I want the Marxist voters to be overconfident and not show up.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90617 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 3:11 pm to
Funny that HW didn’t win re election with such a high approval at this point.

Surprised Reagan was so low
Posted by Mickey Goldmill
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2010
23075 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 3:31 pm to
quote:

He’s sitting at 46%, two points higher than Obama’s numbers at the same point of his presidency. Some other examples from past presidents:



Is that just Gallop's numbers? I usually check out FiveThirtyEight. LINK

At the same point in their terms:

Trump: 42.7

Obama: 50.2
Bush: 66.0
Clinton: 51.7
Bush: 73.0
Reagan: 42.7
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
69301 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 3:33 pm to
Mickey, 548 does this weird thing with their polls where they “adjust” them

Rcp just inputs the polls without doing any adjusting, and trump is at 44 on average

But Gallup has historically been a main pollster, so that’s why it is significant

NBC/wsj has him at 46 as well
Posted by Damone
FoCo
Member since Aug 2016
32766 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 3:34 pm to
Can you imagine how insane Trump's numbers would be if he had a complicit press like Obama?
Posted by Mickey Goldmill
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2010
23075 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 3:37 pm to
quote:

Mickey, 548 does this weird thing with their polls where they “adjust” them

Rcp just inputs the polls without doing any adjusting, and trump is at 44 on average

But Gallup has historically been a main pollster, so that’s why it is significant

NBC/wsj has him at 46 as well


Gotcha. Thanks
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
30575 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 3:37 pm to
538? You mean one of the famous sites that predicted HRC would beat Trump?
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
69301 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 3:39 pm to
For the record, I do think 538 has the right idea to adjust the findings, because it’s obvious polls like Rasmussen have a non-random sample, which gives an inflated and inaccurate number for the president

But sometimes I think the adjusting goes too far
Posted by Mickey Goldmill
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2010
23075 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 3:43 pm to
quote:

For the record, I do think 538 has the right idea to adjust the findings, because it’s obvious polls like Rasmussen have a non-random sample, which gives an inflated and inaccurate number for the president

But sometimes I think the adjusting goes too far



Yeah and that's really the only reason I go to them because it seemed they used a collection of polls to come up with their numbers.
Posted by cajunangelle
Member since Oct 2012
146790 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 5:04 pm to
The Bush's are that high because muh fake wars.
Posted by Glorious
Mobile
Member since Aug 2014
24516 posts
Posted on 5/6/19 at 5:08 pm to
quote:

538? You mean one of the famous sites that predicted HRC would beat Trump?


To be fair so did most other places. Including Vegas who presumably would be the least biased
This post was edited on 5/6/19 at 5:09 pm
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