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re: So Stephen Paddock was a professional VIDEO POKER player?

Posted on 10/5/17 at 9:41 am to
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
421722 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 9:41 am to
i deal with people with addiction issues both in my "real job" (defense attorney) and my "second job" (poker player)

i've said for years that the absolute worst addiction you can develop is gambling. yeah you won't die, but you can literally lose your net wealth and go negative in a weekend (i've seen it happen). a heroin addiction is almost impossible to destroy your life that quickly (ODs often occur with long-term users and are still relatively rare, especially the ones that end in death)
Posted by hawkeye007
Member since Feb 2010
5844 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 9:46 am to
i saw the tax returns for a gentleman that netted 300k on average for the last 3 years as a professional gambler. I asked him his game of choice and when he said slots i about fell over. as he told me you have to haven enough money to get through the loosing streaks. it took him over a million to make that kind of profit.
Posted by BeeFense5
Kenner
Member since Jul 2010
41291 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 9:48 am to
Are you a gambling addict?
I don't mean that as trying to be negative towards you but as a professional player, could you stop if you wanted to?
Just curious. I'm not a gambler myself and I hate losing $5 if I go to a casino
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55220 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 9:49 am to
quote:

This guy was 100 percent laundering dirty money for someone.



Plausible
Posted by IAmReality
Member since Oct 2012
12229 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 9:51 am to
The main reason it's so hard to be a "professional gambler" is patience and discipline. It also takes having a stomach for large swings.

99.99% of every bet you come across is going to be -EV, but very rarely and occasionally you'll stumble across something that's +EV. If you can actually manged to stick to those +EV bets, you can do ok, but hardly anyone has the discipline and patience to do that.

In regards to video poker that means chasing high royal flush jackpots.

Video poker's payout tables are fixed (aka don't change), however many of them have a Royal Flush progressive jackpot that grows over time. Once it grows past a certain threshold, the game becomes marginally +EV to play.

However most people don't have the time and patience to only play those situations and most gamblers inevitably get addicted to the thrill of gambling, even on -EV bets.
This post was edited on 10/5/17 at 9:53 am
Posted by GeorgePaton
God's Country
Member since May 2017
4495 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 9:52 am to
.....well right now all we know about this Stephen Paddock is that he appears to have had a real problem with gambling and he killed a whole lot of innocent people. Believe it was the brother of Stephen Paddock who made the comment he could not see in his brother anything that would have motivated him to do such a terrible thing. Then he said, "Nobody is safe anymore." A scathing indictment of our culture.

I'm sure as it applies to the elderly woman who killed her poor husband, folks thinking back could say there was no indication she had a gambling problem serious enough to result in her killing her husband. We do know now, she had a serious gambling problem....and she killed herself and her husband.

Well we can all agree we have a problem. Until we figure out a solution a lot more folks are going to die. I hope it's not you, or members of your family, or me or mine.

Wait a minute. I have a solution. Maybe we should start listening to an itinerate Jewish Preacher who lived 2000 years ago in an obsure region in the Middle East? Hey...Google Jesus the Christ.
This post was edited on 10/5/17 at 9:57 am
Posted by shinerfan
Duckworld(Earth-616)
Member since Sep 2009
22188 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 9:54 am to
quote:

that's why even with playing perfectly and the +/- system, the casino still has an edge



The statistical edge on the games is pretty small. The casinos real edge is the size of their bankroll compared to yours.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
421722 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 9:57 am to
quote:

I don't mean that as trying to be negative towards you but as a professional player, could you stop if you wanted to?

i played limit poker through law school to support myself and i took 8 years off until last year when i started learning NLHE

i started running bad and playing bad and took a month off and am starting back at lower stakes working on my leaks and getting discipline back

so, yes. i only play with the bankroll i've accumulated and don't play with my personal money. the seed money i used to build the bankroll over the past year has been paid back in full
This post was edited on 10/5/17 at 9:58 am
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
421722 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 9:59 am to
quote:

The casinos real edge is the size of their bankroll compared to yours.

yeah like i said in one post, if you can play 1M hands perfectly and with the +/- system, you may come out ahead
Posted by jchamil
Member since Nov 2009
16459 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:00 am to
quote:

i've said for years that the absolute worst addiction you can develop is gambling. yeah you won't die, but you can literally lose your net wealth and go negative in a weekend (i've seen it happen). a heroin addiction is almost impossible to destroy your life that quickly (ODs often occur with long-term users and are still relatively rare, especially the ones that end in death


The way I've heard gambling described as the worst addiction is that there is no "rock bottom" with a gambling addiction like there is with other addictions. The gambling addict will always think he can make it all back with the next bet
Posted by IAmReality
Member since Oct 2012
12229 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:01 am to
Playing poker is not nearly the same thing as regular casino gambling, you are playing agasinst other people, not the house.

Good poker players can routinely find +EV situations and reliably bank wins.

Things like card counting in blackjack or chasing jackpots in video poker is pitiful compared to a skilled poker player.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
421722 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:12 am to
quote:

The way I've heard gambling described as the worst addiction is that there is no "rock bottom" with a gambling addiction like there is with other addictions. The gambling addict will always think he can make it all back with the next bet

yeah and casinos issue insane markers to people

i've seen people doing pleas before who had 7-figure markers in LC and 8-figures in LV. businessmen who literally lost everything
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
421722 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:15 am to
quote:

Playing poker is not nearly the same thing as regular casino gambling, you are playing agasinst other people, not the house.

oh i know. i don't play in the pit at all. it actually disgusts me

quote:

Good poker players can routinely find +EV situations and reliably bank wins.

agreed. i can't play online b/c i'm not nearly good enough but it's easy in LC to find edges here. just have to ride with variance

i'm learning Omaha b/c that's easily the most +EV game here, but it just plays too big. i'm going to work on it here and there live and study it hardcore off the table while i build the BR to play that game consistently. worst players + biggest pots = long term winner. it's also +EV in BR at LDL, from what i've heard
Posted by LosLobos111
Austere
Member since Feb 2011
45385 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:19 am to
My dad did once
Posted by the_watcher
Jarule's House
Member since Nov 2005
3450 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:35 am to
quote:

yeah like i said in one post, if you can play 1M hands perfectly and with the +/- system, you may come out ahead

I don't mean to come off as condescending but again, this isn't cut and dry. The reason "you may come out ahead" is all the hands you play when the count isn't high or negative. It has nothing to do with counting cards not giving you a small advantage. Just because you said something twice doesn't make it true

quote:

yeah and casinos issue insane markers to people i've seen people doing pleas before who had 7-figure markers in LC and 8-figures in LV. businessmen who literally lost everything

Again, you are saying things that aren't factual. Have you even gotten a marker from a casino? This is what happens. You ask for a marker for a specific amount. The casino then runs a credit check on your checking account balance to ensure there is THREE TIMES THAT AMOUNT available. They then draw a debit for the amount you asked for that will be completed 30 days from the date you drew it on. The only risk for the casino is if you just go to the bank after and literally withdraw all of the cash from the account.

i.e if you want a 10k marker, they check your account balance to ensure there is 30k available. They give you 10k in chips and have an auto draft on your account created to go through 30 days later. If you win money, they cancel it. If you lose money, you have 30 days to pay them or the original charge will go through a month later.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
421722 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:43 am to
quote:

The reason "you may come out ahead" is all the hands you play when the count isn't high or negative. It has nothing to do with counting cards not giving you a small advantage.

i said playing perfectly with +/-. any advantage in counting is assumed by that statement

the 1M hands issue is just a variance comment. if the casinos win with their infinite bankroll, having the (assumed) BR to play 1M hands means you smooth out variance over time. that's what i was responding to

quote:

Again, you are saying things that aren't factual.



i used to represent people on criminal charges related to casino markers and the example i posted is literally a true example (not my client but i saw it go down while i was in court on something else not related to casinos)

i know how the system works and people still get underwater easily

quote:

i.e if you want a 10k marker, they check your account balance to ensure there is 30k available. They give you 10k in chips and have an auto draft on your account created to go through 30 days later. If you win money, they cancel it. If you lose money, you have 30 days to pay them or the original charge will go through a month later.

and you can't see how this could allow somebody to get underwater?

the saddest markers i see are small ones where people leave the finance area and immediately go to slots. the poker tables at the GN here are right by the finance area so it's easy to spot
Posted by stout
Smoking Crack with Hunter Biden
Member since Sep 2006
167109 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:45 am to
I knew a handicapped guy that was a pro video poker player. Dude would take his disability check every week and go gamble it. Paid for everything in cash and lived way better than just what a disability check provided.
Posted by the_watcher
Jarule's House
Member since Nov 2005
3450 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:01 am to
quote:

i used to represent people on criminal charges related to casino markers and the example i posted is literally a true example (not my client but i saw it go down while i was in court on something else not related to casinos)


So, as you said, it wasn't related to a casino. My point is you can't get the marker if you don't have 3x that in your checking account. Casino's aren't in the business of handing out loans.

quote:

i know how the system works and people still get underwater easily

It really doesn't seem like you do. Also, there isn't one specific "finance area" at the Golden Nugget in LC. You can literally get them while sitting at the baccarat table. Or a black jack table. Or pretty much anywhere that a pit boss will take your ID
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
421722 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:05 am to
quote:

Also, there isn't one specific "finance area" at the Golden Nugget in LC.

i didn't say there was only one area to get them. i said there is one by the poker room and it's sad to see people leave there and immediately go to the slot machines

quote:

So, as you said, it wasn't related to a casino.



quote:

My point is you can't get the marker if you don't have 3x that in your checking account.

yes and (a) people can get multiple markers and (b) people can degen it up and spend that money after receiving the markers. there are multiple ways to get underwater and be left with a 6 or 7-figure marker debt
Posted by the_watcher
Jarule's House
Member since Nov 2005
3450 posts
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:33 am to
For someone who has played as much hold em as you claim and the amount of time you've spent in casinos your lack of understanding of the marker process is astounding. Have you ever gotten one yourself?

We will just have to settle this the old fashioned way - heads up 4 rollz
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