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Started By
Message
Police violence rate with Blacks for the stats stupid AGAIN
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:17 pm
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:17 pm
Look this is getting tiresome. Too many people have no frickingidea how to even compute expected rate and yet want to talk about disproportionality. And to many others respond with irrelevant discussions about crime rates. those are interesting factors but the bottom line is if you don't start with the correct expected rate everything else is a waste of time. So with that in mind the expected rate is not and cannot be the percentage of blacks in the national population. The following steps tell you why
1. Regardless of race likelihood of a negative interaction with police is related to likelihood of any interaction with police
2. Likelihood of any interaction with the police is a function of police per capita AND police per square mile.
3. Likelihood of interaction with a particular group of citizens is related to that group's distribution in the United States in relation to where cops are.
4. Police are both higher per capita and higher per square mile in population centers.
5. Population center demographics do not mirror National demographics
If I have to hold your hand any fricking further you aren't capable of comprehending your problem
1. Regardless of race likelihood of a negative interaction with police is related to likelihood of any interaction with police
2. Likelihood of any interaction with the police is a function of police per capita AND police per square mile.
3. Likelihood of interaction with a particular group of citizens is related to that group's distribution in the United States in relation to where cops are.
4. Police are both higher per capita and higher per square mile in population centers.
5. Population center demographics do not mirror National demographics
If I have to hold your hand any fricking further you aren't capable of comprehending your problem
11
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:20 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
If I have to hold your hand any fricking further you aren't capable of comprehending your problem
Then run the Gah-Damn numbers, Whitey!
Jk
But seriously...do it, boy
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:23 pm to bstew3006
quote:if you aren't aware of the demographic difference in population centers I can't help you much.
But seriously...do it, boy
Here I will teach you to fish. Check the population of baton rouge metro. Then look at the population of Wyoming. Check the total number of police officers in both. Check the square miles of both. Then check the demographics of both
Ballpark me on what you're expected rate would be if those were the only two locations in the country that existed.
It's not like you even have to hit it dead-on. The fact that it won't be 13% will be flagrantly obvious
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:27 pm to ShortyRob
Blacks live in cities nearly exclusively except for the South.
Cities have more police and police can interact with more people more easily in urban population areas.
This increases the black likelihood of police contact compared to whites irrespective of the crime rates or poverty rates.
Cities have more police and police can interact with more people more easily in urban population areas.
This increases the black likelihood of police contact compared to whites irrespective of the crime rates or poverty rates.
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:28 pm to crazyatthecamp
quote:
Blacks live in cities nearly exclusively except for the South.
Cities have more police and police can interact with more people more easily in urban population areas.
This increases the black likelihood of police contact compared to whites irrespective of the crime rates or poverty rates.
DING
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:49 pm to ShortyRob
facts don't matter. reality doesn't matter. we aren't going back. it's only going to get worse. There will be both good and bad unintended consequences. We'll have to relish the times when the consequences are "bad".
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:55 pm to ShortyRob
I’m not saying those factors don’t play in, but you can’t limit it to those 5 issues.
“A deep socially and family seeded poor perspective on minority inequality from aging officers that policed in the 70s and 80s and has been passed down to the younger generation” (You can’t forget the demonization of Hispanics and isolate this as a “black thing”).
I know several officers of varying capacities through work. Not a single one of them has said they don’t look at different looking people differently. 2 men in suits, 1 black/1 white, alleged criminal activity isn’t directed to 1. That’s because their perceived risk group for concern is the minority. Not someone who has everything they need already.
It’s sickening, but it’s true as hell.
“A deep socially and family seeded poor perspective on minority inequality from aging officers that policed in the 70s and 80s and has been passed down to the younger generation” (You can’t forget the demonization of Hispanics and isolate this as a “black thing”).
I know several officers of varying capacities through work. Not a single one of them has said they don’t look at different looking people differently. 2 men in suits, 1 black/1 white, alleged criminal activity isn’t directed to 1. That’s because their perceived risk group for concern is the minority. Not someone who has everything they need already.
It’s sickening, but it’s true as hell.
Posted on 6/6/20 at 2:57 pm to ShortyRob
Feelings don’t care about your facts and data
Posted on 6/6/20 at 3:01 pm to ShortyRob
6. Groups committing anomalously large percentages of crime (when looked at as a per capita of population) are going to have more interactions with police, thus more chances that an interaction becomes negative.
Posted on 6/6/20 at 3:05 pm to catchatiger1985
quote:Of course not. Those are simply where you start.
I’m not saying those factors don’t play in, but you can’t limit it to those 5 issues.
quote:That's fine but it has nothing to do with "EXPECTED RATE"
I know several officers of varying capacities through work. Not a single one of them has said they don’t look at different looking people differently. 2 men in suits, 1 black/1 white, alleged criminal activity isn’t directed to 1. That’s because their perceived risk group for concern is the minority. Not someone who has everything they need already.
You can't even BEGIN to discuss whether the actual rate is disproportionate or not until compute what the EXPECTED RATE would be absent ANY difference in the races.
Yet, everyone tries to use national demographics(13%) as the expected rate when this is demonstrably false.
By the way. Regardless of your anecdote, I've got bad news for you. If you treat metropolitan demographics as the "expected rate" in a given metro area, nearly every last one has black deaths coming in UNDER that rate.
Just sayin
Posted on 6/6/20 at 3:07 pm to Bard
quote:That comes AFTER you compute expected rate assuming zero group behavior differences. Which is the point of my thread.
6. Groups committing anomalously large percentages of crime (when looked at as a per capita of population) are going to have more interactions with police, thus more chances that an interaction becomes negative.
The left treats that "expected rate" as if it should mirror national demographics. Which is absurd on its face. In fact, if blacks actually landed on that rate, it would mean whites were GROSSLY over represented in deaths.
Posted on 6/6/20 at 3:19 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
In fact, if blacks actually landed on that rate, it would mean whites were GROSSLY over represented in deaths.
And would be just as unreported.
Posted on 6/6/20 at 3:27 pm to Bard
quote:
And would be just as unreported.
Yup. Hell. It's already not reported that the dirty little secret is that in almost every metro area, blacks are ALREADY under-represented in the police violence stats.
Which honestly, should be expected. Cops, at this point, have got to be scared shitless of doing ANYTHING that can be misconstrued when dealing with a black person.
It's like being the male boss in an organization full of radical feminist and having to do quarterly counseling.
Posted on 6/6/20 at 4:00 pm to ShortyRob
IM TOO ANGRY TO THINK RATIONAL. YOURE A RACIST! REEEEEE! -you know who
Posted on 6/6/20 at 4:04 pm to ShortyRob
Let’s break it down more. We have no police brutality problem in this country, period, end of story. It’s a hoax used every single election year and people remain stupid enough to believe the lies.
Posted on 6/6/20 at 8:26 pm to ShortyRob
K
This post was edited on 6/6/20 at 8:36 pm
Posted on 6/6/20 at 8:29 pm to ShortyRob
FACTS DON'T MATTER
Posted on 6/6/20 at 8:30 pm to ShortyRob
Well we damn sure do not need to disperse them.
Posted on 6/6/20 at 8:31 pm to catchatiger1985
quote:
It’s sickening, but it’s true as hell.
bullshite, it is policing
If a group all wore red collars everywhere they went the police should watch people in red collars, especially if the red collars were 6% of the population and committed half the violent crimes.
Not doing so is PRECISELY like TSA frisking 80 year old women.
6% of the population (black males) committing 50% of the violent crime is not "perceived"
Posted on 6/6/20 at 8:31 pm to crazyatthecamp
Totally explains why blacks kill their own kind at such a disproportional rate....gotta be because they just exposed to their own kind in their dense populations more than whitey out in the suburbs....fricking Whitey and their privilege of not living in over populated white cities resulting in such lower murder rates per capita....it’s that white privileged land they all inherited.
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