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Nate the Plastic Man, Melteth

Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:29 pm
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:29 pm
Posted by member12
Bob's Country Bunker
Member since May 2008
32096 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:30 pm to
Wow. Nate just sucks.
Posted by cokebottleag
I’m a Santos Republican
Member since Aug 2011
24028 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:30 pm to
Wow, that's a no-shite meltdown. My hat ossoff to him.
Posted by 1999
Where I be
Member since Oct 2009
29140 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:32 pm to
Espn needs to dump that failed experiment.
Posted by CamdenTiger
Member since Aug 2009
62444 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:32 pm to
Nate pot metal , at this point....
Posted by Pettifogger
Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone
Member since Feb 2012
79231 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:32 pm to
Nate came around in the last week to this being a much more competitive race.

As usual, this coincided with data coming in on Handel's side.

Posted by UGATiger26
Jacksonville, FL
Member since Dec 2009
9044 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:33 pm to
That's about as melt-tastic as you can get. Literally saying that math - the universal language - is incorrect because the "favored" candidate didn't win.
Posted by cokebottleag
I’m a Santos Republican
Member since Aug 2011
24028 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:33 pm to
The DNC is breaking their own data by demonizing and driving underground the right wing supporters.

Can't tell what people are thinking when you tell them to shut up and check their privilege.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
118834 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:34 pm to


Nate is pissed because he realizes that he cannot perform accurate meta data analysis when the underlying pollsters (likely most of them) manipulate the outcomes to push a particular canidate. The old axiom rings true, garbage in garbage out.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35239 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:34 pm to
And here was his tweet yesterday as the polls changed dramatically over the last week:
quote:

Georgia 6 now looking more like a pure 50/50 toss-up, instead of a slight Ossoff edge.
RCP had it as +3.2 Ossoff on 06/13, and +0.2 Handel on 06/19 (last poll on 06/18).
This post was edited on 6/20/17 at 10:41 pm
Posted by Turbeauxdog
Member since Aug 2004
23193 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:38 pm to
quote:

RCP had it as +3.2 Ossoff on 06/13, and +0.2 Handel on 06/19.



And it's looking +7?
Posted by Seldom Seen
Member since Feb 2016
40236 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:38 pm to
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:39 pm to
quote:

And it's looking +7?




Boom.
Posted by Pettifogger
Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone
Member since Feb 2012
79231 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:39 pm to
LOL at people down voting you

Posted by Roaad
White Privilege Broker
Member since Aug 2006
76502 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:40 pm to
Math and Data aren't broken Nate.

They didn't draw the conclusions, they just exist. Own it, Nate
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35239 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:40 pm to
quote:

And it's looking +7?
It's +5.4 with 99% reporting, which is consistent with the dramatic trend over the last week.
This post was edited on 6/20/17 at 10:44 pm
Posted by member12
Bob's Country Bunker
Member since May 2008
32096 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:41 pm to
Any more wrong and he'd be CNN material.
Posted by RobbBobb
Matt Flynn, BCS MVP
Member since Feb 2007
27932 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:44 pm to
quote:

Nate is pissed because he realizes that he cannot perform accurate meta data analysis when the underlying pollsters (likely most of them) manipulate the outcomes to push a particular canidate

The most accurate poster in 2016, Trafalgar, wasn't even used in Nates methodology. He picks those he likes, and then writes a narrative around them.

But he always leaves that 20-30% caveat, so that he can later say, "I was the only one giving Handel (Trump) a shot"


Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35239 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:45 pm to
quote:

The most accurate poster in 2016, Trafalgar, wasn't even used in Nates methodology.
That's a lie and I've pointed it out to you before.
Posted by Pettifogger
Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone
Member since Feb 2012
79231 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:46 pm to
I can't speak to Nate's metrics, but that Trafalgar poll was probably the primary factor in him moving this to a pure toss up. Hard to say he doesn't consider it in some form or another.
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