March PCE inflation rises to 2.7%, above expectations of 2.6%. No rate cuts anytime soon?

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Core PCE inflation was 2.8%, above expectations of 2.6%.

We now have CPI, PPI, and PCE inflation rising for 2 straight months.

Seems like rate cuts are off the menu

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JPow has spent this year making every positive signal he could reasonably (and sometimes unreasonably) make in order to keep consumerism going long enough to outlast inflation and therefore achieve this mythical "soft landing". GDP finally dropped (for Q1, so it's a lagging indicator) but inflation is back on the rise. The biggest issue is that both the federal government and the consumer have been trying to power through this by creating more debt (read: more money, thereby devaluing the currency)

The market finally seems to have taken the Hopium pipe from its mouth and may be starting to see what some of us have been saying since last year: there will be no "soft landing" and the landing we get is going to hurt like a motherfricker.

Buckle up, gang. We may finally be getting into the economic shitstorm that has been held back for almost a year now.

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I have been saying this.

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You and I both. I just went back looking over old MT and Poli posts for when I first started calling it an inevitability, but the history seems to go back only to last Fall when searching for "soft landing" or even just "landing" and I know I was saying it back in 2022.

You can warn people that a storm is coming only so much when they are bound and determined to face only toward the clearest parts of the sky.

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I think they are cutting at least once before Nov to give JB a jolt

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Yeah, that's a worry I mentioned in a couple of posts earlier this week. Considering how hard Jerome has been trying to thread that "soft landing" needle, I'm concerned he's going to use the GDP drop as a foundation for doing a cut.

Any cut before Unemployment goes above 4%-5% for a few months would be disastrous.