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re: ISIS.. Iraq, Iran, and the US. Understanding the issues
Posted on 6/23/14 at 6:01 am to darkhorse
Posted on 6/23/14 at 6:01 am to darkhorse
ISIS is a big ole lever bar for the Sunni power players and the Kurds in Iraq. At some point elements of ISIS will jump on the political bandwagon when governance becomes the bigger lever bar for the Sunnis and the Kurds. The rest will keep doing what they are doing now and those same power players will beg Americans to come help clean out the insurgents. Regardless, expect "ISIS" to splinter at the very instant that their tactics are no longer expedient to the interested parties.
Americans keep lumping these extremist groups under the same identity for years and years while failing to understand the fluidity of these types of organizations. The power players use whatever leverage they can get and right now the conflict in Syria has opened up a grand opportunity for experienced and well trained fighters to come in to Iraq and do some dirty work. Just anticipate that every time an explosion or gunshot is reported in Syria or Iraq that it will be credited to ISIS regardless of how tenuous or fleeting the association might have been. That is how we keep the bogeyman alive even if it is unintentional. America just hasn't analyzed non government organizations very well. We continue to try to explain and understand these organizations using conventional methods which in turn lead to conventional responses. A line chart just doesn't work because there are thousands of factors at play, much like an economy really. Economics is also a huge factor in all of this, but that is a whole different conversation IMO.
The best possible move for America is the one that has been made already. Send in the extra security for the Embassy and let the advisers do their thing. At least then we might get some clarity on the situation.
Americans keep lumping these extremist groups under the same identity for years and years while failing to understand the fluidity of these types of organizations. The power players use whatever leverage they can get and right now the conflict in Syria has opened up a grand opportunity for experienced and well trained fighters to come in to Iraq and do some dirty work. Just anticipate that every time an explosion or gunshot is reported in Syria or Iraq that it will be credited to ISIS regardless of how tenuous or fleeting the association might have been. That is how we keep the bogeyman alive even if it is unintentional. America just hasn't analyzed non government organizations very well. We continue to try to explain and understand these organizations using conventional methods which in turn lead to conventional responses. A line chart just doesn't work because there are thousands of factors at play, much like an economy really. Economics is also a huge factor in all of this, but that is a whole different conversation IMO.
The best possible move for America is the one that has been made already. Send in the extra security for the Embassy and let the advisers do their thing. At least then we might get some clarity on the situation.
1
Posted on 6/23/14 at 6:15 am to MrCarton
quote:
MrCarton
Good post.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 9:07 am to darkhorse
quote:
Once the U.S. military is able to freely conduct operations in Syrian territory getting the regime change that they will be much, much easier.
This sentence is not in the article I linked.
quote:
So your article does not prove we funded ISIS.
Do you have trouble understanding basic words?
Did I say the article proved ISIS was funded by the US? Or did I say I was informed in a thread I started that most posters are aware the US funded these guys.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 11:56 am to darkhorse
quote:
SO what does the US do?
Stop arming groups like this through intermediaries like SA, Qatar, UAE.
quote:
Do we allow ISIS to take control, recruit, gain more weapons and then carry out their plans?
That is what we have been doing. View the fruits. ISIS, I'm sure, will conveniently begin to engage Hezbollah. Hezbollah, a militia, will most likely smash them to pieces. Only a diamond can cut another diamond.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 1:16 pm to rcocke2
quote:
That is what we have been doing. View the fruits. ISIS, I'm sure, will conveniently begin to engage Hezbollah. Hezbollah, a militia, will most likely smash them to pieces. Only a diamond can cut another diamond.
Excellent observation
Hezbollah already smashed these asshats in Syria. When the MSM was ramping up the stories about Assad be on the edge of destruction the Sunni rebels had almost no foothold in any major city in the country. I remember just laughing at the headlines. I guess the narrative that a small contingent of HZB fighters and Assad's minority government had enough skill and internal/external support to spank these insurgents over and over again in town after town didn't really fit with what we wanted people to believe. 
I do wonder if HZB will get seriously involved in Iraq. That would be a political nightmare considering how unpopular their participation in Syria is. A well publicized effort in Iraq might be too much a strain to overcome for Nasrallah. He took a lot of shite for Syria and is now pulling a "fight em over there" argument that nobody believes. ISIS in Beirut?!?!?!
Posted on 6/23/14 at 7:21 pm to MrCarton
quote:
Excellent observation Hezbollah already smashed these asshats in Syria
Yeah, they smashed Al-Nusra and some elements of ISIS, really all part of the same Wahhabist Sunni extremist groups that Senator John McWar had a photo-op with a couple years back begging for more death to the enemies of ________, our ally.
quote:
When the MSM was ramping up the stories about Assad be on the edge of destruction the Sunni rebels had almost no foothold in any major city in the country
Hezbollah does not play games. In fact, they go downright old-school and use communication methods outside of computer networks, use silence when others are screaming, make overfed armies guess too much. Hard to spy and intel on them. They are a true militia raised up through defiance to our best ally, _______.
quote:
I do wonder if HZB will get seriously involved in Iraq
I do not think so considering that they are now fighting _______, as of this AMs headlines near the Gholan. Stretched thin, they need help from Iran for the ISIS in Iraq. I'd like to see them smash ISIS as it appears pretty clearly that a Northern Levant controlled by Shias and Moderate Sunnis is way more beneficial to Christians than Wahhabist ghouls from SA.
Posted on 6/24/14 at 6:22 am to rcocke2
quote:
rcocke2
Solid post man.
quote:
Hezbollah does not play games. In fact, they go downright old-school and use communication methods outside of computer networks, use silence when others are screaming, make overfed armies guess too much. Hard to spy and intel on them. They are a true militia raised up through defiance to our best ally, _______.
On top of their skill as a militia, they have done an excellent job in information ops, governance, and politics. They really are all around effective. In general, Many Leb Christians support HZB regardless of how ridiculous Nasrallah can be at times. This Syria issue really put a lot of Christians on the fence, but in the end they know they need HZB.
quote:
Yeah, they smashed Al-Nusra and some elements of ISIS, really all part of the same Wahhabist Sunni extremist groups that Senator John McWar had a photo-op with a couple years back begging for more death to the enemies of ________, our all
That they did. I am inclined to believe that some of what happened in Iraq was in effect an escape valve for Sunni insurgents. I hope that the areas of western Iraq don't become a fertile recruiting ground for traveling gunslingers. Inevitably the Shia militias and Iraqi military will dominate the Baghdad and southern Iraq areas with ease, but without some kind of reconciliation and fair governance in the west/northwest they will be primarily exporting fighters to Syria and Lebanon.
McDumbass makes me fricking cringe.
quote:
I do not think so considering that they are now fighting _______, as of this AMs headlines near the Gholan. Stretched thin, they need help from Iran for the ISIS in Iraq. I'd like to see them smash ISIS as it appears pretty clearly that a Northern Levant controlled by Shias and Moderate Sunnis is way more beneficial to Christians than Wahhabist ghouls from SA.
Man, I need to read a newspaper. I didn't hear anything about this. If they are going at it right now then that takes any real effort in Iraq off the table if it wasn't already.
Posted on 6/24/14 at 6:58 am to darkhorse
quote:
SO what does the US do?
give them more weapons and supplies
Posted on 6/24/14 at 6:59 am to Sleeping Tiger
quote:
exterminate terrorism
how do you defeat an ideology?
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