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For those that are hoping for meaningful legislation in the next 2 years...
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:21 pm
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:21 pm
I wouldn't expect anything more than "low-hanging fruit" for two big reasons. First, the 2016 Senate map for Republicans looks worse that this year did for Democrats. Now this can be misleading as gubernatorial results this time around defied the map, but the key here isn't whether or not the GOP keeps the Senate in 2016, it's whether they have political security for the next two years. With this overhang you likely won't see much in the way of meaningful compromise that would jeopardize their seats.
Secondly, the moderate group of Democrats just got smaller. Most of the defeated Democratic incumbents were some of the moderate camp, so although policy improvement may be incremental due to the GOP control there are very different objectives between parties.
So what's it mean for legislation? Pubs will send some bills to the floor to repeal parts of the ACA, and depending on the composition most will likely be DOA. Same story with Dodd-Frank. The inability of Congress and the White-House to communicate (really at all) will nuke any chance at meaningful reform (housing, immigration, tax, etc.). We'll just get some repeals of the medical device tax and stuff like that.
My only real worry is the debt ceiling coming up in the spring, Obama and Democrats will likely have to compromise on some of the marginal issues, but if Boehner doesn't keep in line the small sect of crazy fricks that would actually send the US into a default rather than give anything to the left, then we're going to get another replay of 2013 (or worse, god/whatever-deity-you-believe-in forbidding)
Secondly, the moderate group of Democrats just got smaller. Most of the defeated Democratic incumbents were some of the moderate camp, so although policy improvement may be incremental due to the GOP control there are very different objectives between parties.
So what's it mean for legislation? Pubs will send some bills to the floor to repeal parts of the ACA, and depending on the composition most will likely be DOA. Same story with Dodd-Frank. The inability of Congress and the White-House to communicate (really at all) will nuke any chance at meaningful reform (housing, immigration, tax, etc.). We'll just get some repeals of the medical device tax and stuff like that.
My only real worry is the debt ceiling coming up in the spring, Obama and Democrats will likely have to compromise on some of the marginal issues, but if Boehner doesn't keep in line the small sect of crazy fricks that would actually send the US into a default rather than give anything to the left, then we're going to get another replay of 2013 (or worse, god/whatever-deity-you-believe-in forbidding)
2
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:25 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
quote:
actually send the US into a default
how can the US default? tax revenues are more than the service for the debt??
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:32 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
Please get Tax Reform on the docket. It's low hanging fruit but gets complicated real quick. They will probably just nibble around the edges, but at least it will be better than trying to close inversion loopholes.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:34 pm to ynlvr
Elections are cyclical. The GOP will probably regress slightly no matter what happens in the next two years.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:34 pm to CptBengal
Congress controls government funding, tax revenues are very lumpy, and we run a deficit (although it has shrunk dramatically). If Congress doesn't pass a funding bill, then we would have a "technical default". The ramifications of this and the application of such things are a completely different story, however debt servicing would likely be unaffected for a short period of time post "default" due to the payment mechanism the Treasury has for the US Treasury debt market.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:35 pm to ynlvr
quote:
Please get Tax Reform on the docket. It's low hanging fruit but gets complicated real quick. They will probably just nibble around the edges, but at least it will be better than trying to close inversion loopholes.
Very, very slim chance anything meaningful happens. Very slim.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:44 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
quote:
Very, very slim chance anything meaningful happens. Very slim
And the REPS will let the DEMS off the hook in 2016 if something doesn't get done. Foolish to leave this undone. From US News & World Report . . .
quote:
A survey released Monday of 800 likely voters nationwide conducted by Public Opinion Strategies shows the country is ready for change, and in ways that play to the Republicans’ strengths:
• By 86 percent to 6, respondents said the favored simplifying the tax code.
• By 74 percent to 23 they said they favored cutting federal spending.
• By 63 percent to 25, they support making new trade agreements with Europe and Asia.
• By 95 percent to 4, voters want to see both parties “work together to update the U.S. tax code and get America back working at its full potential.”
• By 93 percent to 4, “the next Congress needs to update the tax code so that it works better for today’s families and businesses.”
• And they agreed, 76 percent to 18 percent, that “Making the U.S. tax code simpler and more fair will spur economic growth and opportunity faster than any other action the government could take.”
As much as the Democrats and their allies in the echo chamber may believe GOP control of the U.S. Senate is a temporary matter, the fact is the indicators are pointing the other way.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:59 pm to ynlvr
quote:
And the REPS will let the DEMS off the hook in 2016 if something doesn't get done
Which is pretty much exactly why nothing meaningful will get done.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 1:20 pm to ynlvr
quote:These are the stupidest, most leading poll questions ever. Is there broad support for actual, specific tax reforms, or just "tax reform" as a polling tabula rasa onto which everyone can project what they want?
• By 86 percent to 6, respondents said the favored simplifying the tax code.
• By 95 percent to 4, voters want to see both parties “work together to update the U.S. tax code and get America back working at its full potential.”
• By 93 percent to 4, “the next Congress needs to update the tax code so that it works better for today’s families and businesses.”
• And they agreed, 76 percent to 18 percent, that “Making the U.S. tax code simpler and more fair will spur economic growth and opportunity faster than any other action the government could take.”
Posted on 11/5/14 at 1:25 pm to Iosh
Cut spending! But nothing that will affect me!
Posted on 11/5/14 at 1:45 pm to KosmoCramer
The complexity involved with federal politics may be the most underrated and misunderstood for any profession.
Think if at the end of every year, fans got to vote whether to keep or fire their football coach.
Think if at the end of every year, fans got to vote whether to keep or fire their football coach.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 1:48 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
Thanks for throwing ice on my boner 
Posted on 11/5/14 at 2:53 pm to Vols&Shaft83
Politicians don't give a flying frick what the public wants, they care what their supporters and big doners want. They like the tax code just they way it is since they wrote the loop holes that help them. Both parties.
Zero chance of a simplified tax code, really less than zero.
They will talk a good game about it, nada will be done and then they will both blame each other, like they have for last 30 years on this issue.
Zero chance of a simplified tax code, really less than zero.
They will talk a good game about it, nada will be done and then they will both blame each other, like they have for last 30 years on this issue.
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