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Facts on Health Care

Posted on 3/26/17 at 7:14 pm
Posted by FearlessFreep
Baja Alabama
Member since Nov 2009
17297 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 7:14 pm
I'm going to continue to post these links from Karl Denninger's Market Ticker in hopes that some of you will explain to me why he's wrong. A couple of excerpts:
quote:

Let us remember that insurance is simply a math problem. That is, insurance is always and everywhere simply the expression of the formula

[sum(p * c) + cost(operation of insurance company]

p = probability of having to pay a claim on a specific event
c = cost of the event

And of course "sum" is the sum of all the "p * c" components that exist for all the things you bought the insurance against.
quote:

If p = 1.0 then it is always cheaper to simply pay cash because cost*(operation of the insurance company)is never zero. For something where p = 1.0 for all, or nearly all of the population you should never buy insurance for same since p * c = c!
quote:

So what is the purpose of requiring such "mandatory benefits"? Simple: It reduces "p" over the entire population of people with policies. But since the total of those "p * c" computations is the sum of all of them for each individual the purpose of such mandates is to force you to pay for someone else's treatment for a condition you cannot possibly suffer.
quote:

So why are these medical procedures, drugs and similar so expensive now for most people? Why are you basically extorted into buying "insurance" either through your employer or directly? Why is now the law to run these charges through a company that has to make a profit and thus is guaranteed to drive up cost?

Simple: It prevents us from all having the two political discussions up above -- why are we being ripped off to the tune of 1,000%, that is 10x what we we ought to be paying for virtually everything health-care related and why should we pay anything for someone else's decision to continue a lifestyle choice that results in the expenditure of hundreds of thousands of dollars after they get the condition when they can change that lifestyle choice and eliminate not only the condition but nearly all of its expense?
Plenty more food for thought at the link above. I'd love to see supporters of ACA, AHCA, or any of the other useless and ineffective "health care proposals" read this and argue against it.
This post was edited on 3/26/17 at 7:17 pm
Posted by 5thTiger
Member since Nov 2014
7996 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 7:22 pm to
quote:

So what is the purpose of requiring such "mandatory benefits"? Simple: It reduces "p" over the entire population of people with policies. But since the total of those "p * c" computations is the sum of all of them for each individual the purpose of such mandates is to force you to pay for someone else's treatment for a condition you cannot possibly suffer.


The idea behind those "mandatory benefits", typically lower cost care options than the alternatives is that people will correct smaller ailments faster, thus preventing larger, more expensive ones.

Mandates forcing people to pay is literally the business model for all insurance. The healthy/smart/risk averse (driving)/etc. people buy insurance that they more than likely won't need, while sick/weak/stupid people receive more than they pay in. Also, it is much easier to to lump people together based upon risk assessments rather than by any other determining factor.

Why should women have to pay for testicular cancer treatments? or Why should men have to pay for breast cancer treatments? is essentially the question.

I mean, I think its obvious that they are avoiding major lawsuits. Not totally versed in this yet, but I'd imagine there is a more than decent chance some people would have good discrimination suits if charged differently.

Edit: why the downvotes? That is apolitical. Simply answering the questions posed.
This post was edited on 3/26/17 at 7:29 pm
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
71155 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 7:31 pm to
quote:

Why should women have to pay for testicular cancer treatments? or Why should men have to pay for breast cancer treatments? is essentially the question.


Those are both cancer so it's not really an issue. Just strikes different parts of the body (and breast cancer isn't exclusive to women).

The problem with the essential health benefits is they drive up the overall costs, and that makes insurance a bad deal for people who just need protection against risk. Let people choose an old plan without that coverage and it's a good deal again, and most of those policyholders will pay into the system.
Posted by tigerskin
Member since Nov 2004
40287 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 7:35 pm to
Totally free market cash operation would definitely lower costs.

No chance that they would withhold treatment for diabetics. They aren't going down the rabbit hole of which diseases you are getting/worsening by choice. The arguments would be endless.
This post was edited on 3/26/17 at 7:36 pm
Posted by 5thTiger
Member since Nov 2014
7996 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 7:39 pm to
quote:

Totally free market cash operation would definitely lower costs.

and extremely limit the number of people who could buy insurance.

quote:

No chance that they would withhold treatment for diabetics. They aren't going down the rabbit hole of which diseases you are getting/worsening by choice. The arguments would be endless.

Fat chance they would insure diabetics if they didn't have to. Have you seen insurance companies now? They will argue over anything. Cutting out everyone with pre-existing conditions would be their dream. Profit margins would skyrocket. Of course, if you have any sort of pre-existing condition, or risky behavior, you would be totally fricked, but for the healthy, financially stable people, would lower costs.
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
69308 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 7:43 pm to
5thtiger, we shouldn't have health insurance for routine health occurrences
Posted by TigerNAtux
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
17112 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 7:45 pm to
Men can get breast cancer. Women with testicular cancer, not so much.
Posted by tigerskin
Member since Nov 2004
40287 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 7:45 pm to
Genetics plays a bigger role than people's decisions.
Posted by bonhoeffer45
Member since Jul 2016
4367 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 8:11 pm to
Too many holes to even know where to begin.

I have never met someone that chose to get cancer, have a genetic heart condition, or get hit by a bus. The basic premise alone is problematic, which frames health care mostly as a choice and talks about problems mainly through that prism. Which very often it is not. You do not get to choose your genetics or when you become the victim of an accident. Get to chose that you were born in an area where a factory polluted the air and gave you health problems but the systems that be were unable to adequately deliver compensation to cover the costs.

Basically the guy wants to make illegal PPO/HMO's and force insurance to be nothing but indemnity where it is allowed to exist. While not allowing discrimination except for age and gender. Which would inevitably increase the "p" in his simplified calculation. Reading his policy pages he leaves a lot unclear and just says shite without explaining, like this will destroy employer insurance for good!

To more specific issues though:

Insurers are risk averse, one of the problems that led to Medicare, Medicaid, high risk government pools, and the ACA came about specifically because the private insurers refuse to insure high risk people. That is setting aside the piece constantly contradicts itself with saying one moment in supplemental pieces that insurers can't discriminate on risk factors and then encouraging it and setting up an entire market around it.

Just because a person's probability to get any one type of disease is low, the combined probability of any sort of catastrophe or health problem is much higher. Furthermore, for the vast majority of health issues, a person can not predict what he will or will not acquire. My father for instance, with no family history was driving to a clients house when his eye went nearly blind. Turns out he had Lattice Retinal Degeneration. He ended up driving himself to the ER. This has now led to multiple surgeries, specialty visits and on-going maintenance and treatment. Speaking of eyes, one of the leading causes of blindness the world over is iritis, a condition of eye pressure and the cause and predictability of getting it is almost still unknown. But millions will get it in this country.

The author cherry picks the entry level prices from a primary physician only business in Michigan. while ignoring the entire dynamic of how pricing in healthcare(or any market) works(and the fact the website markets their cheapest price and clouds the rest). Prices are largely dependent on local market dynamics and the monopoly power in an area. There is this under current that I guess by some magic, if we get rid of most insurance and government spending on healthcare and force all care providers to provide care at the same rates, with no downward control pressures like other countries, that magically rural Alaska will be able to charge the same price for care as one place in Michigan, or that all prices will look like that cherry picked price list.

The concept of membership offices for primary care itself is an intriguing one, and is actually a very old idea that started at the heart of insurance in this country when hospitals charged membership dues, but this is a concept built around primary care services. Your annual check-ups, physicals, bloodwork and basic tests. And the author very much abuses this data and runs with it. There are worthwhile ideas in what is a growing trend in healthcare with membership businesses, but there is a reckless use of this to get to his points. This is also a market that is popping up because most of these people have some other insurance and this serves as a supplement, even the website speaks to this.

Toward the end things really go off the rails. I am not sure how he does his math but he seems to just make up numbers of what his sunshine and unicorn rare disease(I.E. high-risk pools) insurance would cost. All while earlier rightfully acknowledging just how expensive high-risk pools are and have become.


This reads like when the left or the right offer up these faux reform ideas that fall apart when you actually have to fill in the numbers on things and get it analyzed by actual number crunchers I.E. Bernie and his Medicare for all and Republicans with the AHCA after promising everyone everything for 7 years.
This post was edited on 3/26/17 at 8:19 pm
Posted by bonhoeffer45
Member since Jul 2016
4367 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 8:27 pm to
quote:

Those are both cancer so it's not really an issue. Just strikes different parts of the body (and breast cancer isn't exclusive to women).

The problem with the essential health benefits is they drive up the overall costs, and that makes insurance a bad deal for people who just need protection against risk. Let people choose an old plan without that coverage and it's a good deal again, and most of those policyholders will pay into the system.



The other side to this, and people need to decide if they are ok with it, and where a lot of the debate whittles down to on this, is that by not setting a minimum standard, you incentivize the healthiest and highest risk-takers to choose lower coverage options. Which leaves the more comprehensive coverage increasingly and increasingly more expensive, and often out of reach for more and more people that need it. Who then get forced into less adequate coverage because it's all they can afford. Couple that with no mandates or penalties and you go back to the barebones individual market we had. Though slightly more expensive(though for many probably cheaper then the mandated situation) if you still eliminate pre-existing conditions because people will just wait til they need it to join more comprehensive care.

Ultimately, the lowest common denominator becomes the main standard and the old mandated baseline now becomes a luxury fewer people can afford.

It becomes a trade-off game. Do you eliminate mandates/minimum coverages and create cheaper premiums but make the equivalent of the previous mandated baseline more expensive? Or do you create a baseline benefit mandate and make premiums more expensive then when un-mandated, but will keep that benefit baseline cheaper then had you sought that level of coverage without the mandate?There are winners and losers in either scenario.
This post was edited on 3/26/17 at 8:37 pm
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
71155 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 8:37 pm to
quote:

The other side to this, and people need to decide if they are ok with it, and where a lot of the debate whittles down to on this, is that by not setting a minimum standard, you incentivize the healthiest and highest risk-takers to choose lower coverage options, which leaves the more comprehensive coverage increasingly and increasingly more expensive, and often out of reach for more and more people that need it, who then get forced into less adequate coverage because its all they can afford.


Probably better than having them opt out altogether and leaving a sicker risk pool. With less comprehensive coverage as an option, low risk people will be more likely to enroll,and they'll be paying in $100-$200 a month instead of $0.

Other problem with essential health benefits is whatever's left off the list will eventually be excluded from "comprehensive" plans, so you end up with people who paid $600 or more a month getting sick and finding out their insurance is useless.
Posted by texashorn
Member since May 2008
13122 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 8:42 pm to
quote:

The idea behind those "mandatory benefits", typically lower cost care options than the alternatives is that people will correct smaller ailments faster, thus preventing larger, more expensive ones.

This assertion falls on its face when you learn that emergency room usage skyrocketed under Medicaid (most of the "insured" number from Obamacare) after Obamacare and its Medicaid expansion were implemented.

Also it has been proven untrue that preventive medicine for the masses will save money in the long run.
Politifact
This post was edited on 3/26/17 at 8:46 pm
Posted by bonhoeffer45
Member since Jul 2016
4367 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 8:43 pm to
I just edited in a paragraph to wrap up my point.

It is ultimately a choice of trade-offs. All else being equal, it becomes a choice of lower premiums but less comprehensive coverage, that makes more comprehensive coverage more expensive then under a mandated benefit system. Or more comprehensive coverage, but at a slightly lower rate then attaining that same level of coverage without a benefit mandate. Where the cheapest premiums will be more expensive then without a mandate.

It's a tradeoff problem. Something this OP's piece doesn't really get into addressing in any of his supplemental policy ideas either.
This post was edited on 3/26/17 at 8:45 pm
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
57276 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 8:54 pm to
quote:

the purpose of such mandates is to force you to pay for someone else's treatment for a condition you cannot possibly suffer
This. And there is a word for that. But it isn't--insurance.
Posted by Strannix
District 11
Member since Dec 2012
48943 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 8:57 pm to
I don't understand how someone can downvote a mathematical formula
Posted by Vols&Shaft83
Throbbing Member
Member since Dec 2012
69916 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 8:58 pm to
quote:

don't understand how someone can downvote a mathematical formula




montanagator thinks math is racist
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
57276 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 9:07 pm to
quote:

I have never met someone that chose to get cancer, have a genetic heart condition, or get hit by a bus.
How many have you met that chose be stuck with their bills?

quote:

Insurers are risk averse,
100% false. Insurers wouldn't exist if they avoided risk.

quote:

one of the problems that led to Medicare, Medicaid, high risk government pools, and the ACA came about specifically because the private insurers refuse to insure high risk people.
Medicare and Medicaid came about as a way to buy democrat votes. Nothing to do with insurability of people.

Insurers have never refused to cover high-risk people. They just priced it appropriately.

You insure damn near anything.

But if you're insuring something for $1,000,000 in value, as the risk of loss approaches 100% the premium is going to approach $1,000,000.

That is entirely appropriate and expended for insurance.

What one cannot do.. is "insure" NON-risk events. A person with PECs is not a risk. The "risk" for them is 100% certainty. So they would be properly priced at 1:1 with their expenditures.

quote:

Just because a person's probability to get any one type of disease is low, the combined probability of any sort of catastrophe or health problem is much higher.
Oh dear.

quote:

The author cherry picks


Posted by texashorn
Member since May 2008
13122 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 9:08 pm to
Math doesn't apply when the federal government can tinker with the numbers and force people (doctors, and they will) to provide services that aren't completely reimbursed (like Medicaid).

Or put in "price controls" for drugs and wages.

He who has the guns makes the rules, which is why liberals don't want citizens to have guns.
This post was edited on 3/26/17 at 9:10 pm
Posted by tigersbb
Member since Oct 2012
10318 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 9:19 pm to
The Affordable Care Act was nothing more than a huge transference of wealth. It is amazing that a benefit which was previously provided by employers on a voluntary basis has now been placed under governmental control, forcing certain employers to provide the benefits or be fined, while telling them how the benefits are to be paid, how much they must pay, what is covered and deciding which of their employees lifestyles are to be subsidized by other employees.

In addition we were also being forced to subsidize health insurers through reimbursement corridors and subsidies when they were required to discard actuarial prognostications to assume any all risks with the knowledge that if their profits dropped accordingly the taxpayers would make up the difference. Now the courts have finally reigned in this assault on our constitution by this administration by ruling these subsidies can only be paid when authorized by Congress. Congress has refused to allocate the funding and the carriers have elected to abandon this sinking vessel.

Yes, the " uninsured rate " may have dropped . Much of this is due to the mandate to purchase ( the first time in the history of this country the populace is forced to purchase a product just for existing) and those who would have been eligible for Medicaid even without the Affordable Care Act. Yet, the new insureds really are no better off as they must absorb large deductibles and co-payments to access their coverage. This is prohibitive for many. When the Democrats were passing the ACA we were told, depending on the audience that there were 30,000,000 to 50,000,000 uninsured people in the country who would benefit from passing the ACA. Lets split it and call it 40 million uninsured. If those numbers were true then there should have been a stampede to sign up for coverage last year and this year.

The Health and Human Services claims the number of signups last year is 9.4 million Remember, though we were not told the truth about 2015 signups. It was eventually exposed and finally admitted by the administration that they had lied and the number of signups was actually 6.3 million and not the 8.7 million they touted until they were exposed. There was no confirmation of how many of the current 9.1 million were previously insured and lost their coverage due to the ACA. In reality there may have been only 5 million newly insured. The total insured may have been well below 8 million by the end of last year.

My premiums have increased 64% since 2013 with higher deductibles and co-payments while I am also forced to subsidize the insurance of others. The president claimed premiums would be reduced $2,500 per family by the Affordable Care Act. The president knew this was not true and deliberately lied to the American people to push for the passage of the act.

The Democrats can be proud of themselves. They gave Obama his signature accomplishment and now the Democrats own it. It has already cost them the Congress and it was a significant factor in costing them the Presidency.

It would have been better for Congress to have allocated an assigned risk pool of funds to assist those who were shut out of the standard insurance markets by pre-existing conditions instead of this giant exercise in absurdity and lunacy. The Democrats had to resort to unconstitutional deception and bribery of reluctant Congresspersons from Nebraska, Louisiana and Michigan to get the law passed. We were lied to again and again and again by this administration.

Jonathan Gruber, one of the plan's major architects confirmed the level of deceit by the Democrats. Hard working tax paying citizens are being forced to subsidize health care for others, meanwhile many have lost their own coverage and are being forced to purchase insurance with higher premiums and higher deductibles and co-payments. Despite Obama's claim it would reduce premiums an average of $2,500.00 per family this year's true numbers of participants will continue to drop, primarily due to the cost. A recent report stated more and more Obamacare recipients cancelled their policies even after being afforded great leniency by the very liberal rules set by this administration.

So we had to totally disrupt health coverage that many were happy with, had to endure a total revision of the healthcare system all for less than 3% of the population of this country. This continues to prove how incompetent this administration is and so ill prepared to govern. This is yet another example of how liberals operate. They will take what they can get at first. Then having gotten their foot in the door they return to press for the rest at a later date in the guise of fairness. Then anyone who objects is waging a war on those beneficiaries, a meme which their media minions is always willing to trumpet. Look no further than this current push for single payer option and the recent movement in California to cover illegal immigrants.

The Democrat Congress and President Obama passed a defective bill and will continue to pay the price for it. The Democrat Congress had to assure Obama got his signature accomplishment. You Democrats now own it lock, stock and barrel.
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
57276 posts
Posted on 3/26/17 at 9:24 pm to
quote:

He who has the guns makes the rules, which is why liberals don't want citizens to have guns.
And hey want to put rose with the guns in charge of your healthcare. What could possibly go wrong?
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