re: Effectiveness of the Flu Vaccine

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I have taken graduate level classes on this topic

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Then I don't see how you could possibly think you are correctly representing the data.

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I said the factor of three would mislead people because saying three times more likely to get the flu SOUNDS a lot worse to most people than the reality of catching the flu 1 time more every ten years.

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If you think that is misleading, then you must think all stats of this nature are misleading, because that is a very common and well-understood way to state the actual results.


An example using your representation:

You have a 1% chance of contracting AIDS. Getting a mythical AIDS vaccine reduces your chances to 0.01%. That is less than a 1% improvement in your chance of avoiding AIDS. That doesn't sound impressive, or even worth it, because it is a misrepresentation of the data.



An example using a representation that means something and accurately represents the data:

You have a 1% chance of contracting AIDS. Getting a mythical AIDS vaccine reduces your chances to 0.01%. That is a 99% improvement, or, that increases your chance of avoiding AIDS by 100 fold.

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Saying you are 3 time more likely to catch the flue without the vaccine will also mislead people

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Sorry, but it's not misleading at all. It is a very fair and accurate description. Quoting 10 percentage points in absolute terms like you did instead of converting to a % change is VERY misleading, however.

I'm not sure what your problem is or what your angle is in this thread, but you have come off in this thread like an ignorant jerk.

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BTW, good job cutting off my quote where I said SOUNDS (and stressed it) worse to most people. When I said 10%, I clearly said for AVOIDING the flu. I also acknowledged that it is relative which is why I changed the description to include years. That puts it in terms that aren't misleading and anyone (even those terrible at math) can understand.

Also, if you had ever done a risk analysis in your life, you would understand why my description (once per 10 years) is often times more useful than the relative numbers.

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Don't know what any of this means. What I do know is you have been pig-headed in this thread. Getting a flu shot is a great idea and it substantially lowers one's iterative risk of contracting the flu in any given year.