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Message
Early Senate '18 map show Reps picking up 6 seats.
Posted on 10/17/17 at 3:03 pm
Posted on 10/17/17 at 3:03 pm
Need to net 8 though. 11 would be awesome to nullify McCain, Collins and Murkowski and really put the heat on the GOPe. 52 + 11 = 63 that means you can get to cloture without McCain, Collins and Murkowski. 11 is possible by winning all the battle ground and the states Republicans currently lead.
LINK
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Posted on 10/17/17 at 3:06 pm to GumboPot
Posted on 10/17/17 at 3:07 pm to GumboPot
West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Florida and Montana are the prime targets.
Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are battlegrounds and can be won with the right candidate who knows the state well.
11 seats is very unlikely.
Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are battlegrounds and can be won with the right candidate who knows the state well.
11 seats is very unlikely.
Posted on 10/17/17 at 3:11 pm to Sentrius
How Montana and South Dakota have Democratic Senators is beyond me.
Posted on 10/17/17 at 3:13 pm to GumboPot
You would think that might help to get better laws passed, the ACA repealed, etc; however, we would probably see more excuses, more fence sitters, and nothing would get done.
Posted on 10/17/17 at 3:21 pm to Al Bundy Bulldog
quote:The political landscape has changed drastically in just the last 4 years. Arkansas elected democrats regularly not long ago. It would be virtually impossible to win a statewide election as a Democrat now.
How Montana and South Dakota have Democratic Senators is beyond me.
Posted on 10/17/17 at 3:22 pm to Sentrius
quote:
11 seats is very unlikely.
this far out any sort of projection is foolish, especially since there are primary challenges being lined up against several Rs.
Oh, and the presidential party usually loses senate seats at the mid terms. So 11 seats is probably unrealistic, 8 is probably a pipe dream. Rs should be ecstatic if they hold their current majority.
Posted on 10/17/17 at 3:25 pm to GumboPot
So huge to get these fakes out of office next year and get things accomplished. HUGE
Posted on 10/17/17 at 3:30 pm to bobby_3_sticks
You don't know anything about which seats are open do you?
Posted on 10/17/17 at 3:32 pm to Al Bundy Bulldog
Heidi Heitkamp (D) won her North Dakota senate seat in 2012 by only 2,936 votes.
Yeah, I'd say she is very vulnerable.
Yeah, I'd say she is very vulnerable.
Posted on 10/17/17 at 3:34 pm to GumboPot
58 is not veto proof but still a great cushion, right now there are like 3-4 rogue GOPE and with 52 seats they torpedo everything.
With 58 you could get to 50+ without them easily.
With 58 you could get to 50+ without them easily.
Posted on 10/17/17 at 3:37 pm to GumboPot
Am I missing something here or this is just some website a guy made where he looks at some polls, throws in his two cents and then makes a map? People are discussing this map like it is actually backed up something and not just made by some guy.
This post was edited on 10/17/17 at 3:39 pm
Posted on 10/17/17 at 3:54 pm to GumboPot
Not to dampen the excitement too much, but the house will almost certainly lose seats.
Just a matter of how much.
Just a matter of how much.
Posted on 10/17/17 at 4:10 pm to gthog61
quote:
You don't know anything about which seats are open do you?
there is only one open seat in 2018.
the map definitely favors republicans. But history favors the democrats, both in terms of incumbent party losing seats plus unfavorable presidents losing a lot of seats.
And throw in primary challenges, and boom, it starts to get dicey for republicans.
We will have to wait and see though. Tax reform and russia will play into it. If I was a republican, I would be a bit nervous about how it plays out.
Posted on 10/17/17 at 4:18 pm to bobby_3_sticks
quote:
Rs should be ecstatic if they hold their current majority.
Normally true. But 10 DNC states were won by trump. And DNC stand of no compromise combined with DNC leadership is not promising for these seats. Expect GOP gains in Senate. 11 Might be as unlikely as President Trump!
Posted on 10/17/17 at 4:25 pm to GumboPot
Picking up 6 senate seats in 2018 would be unprecedented in every sense of the word. Especially considering the Trump lost the popular vote in 2016.
Posted on 10/17/17 at 4:39 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
Especially considering the Trump lost the popular vote in 2016.
What the hell does that have to do with individual Senate races around the country?
The Republicans gaining that many seats as the party in power would definitely be unprecedented but political history isn't meaning as much in the current climate. Look who won the White House.
None of this matters yet as we still haven't seen how bad the Republicans will botch this tax reform bill and we also haven't seen what kind of party the Democrats are ultimately going to end up as.
Posted on 10/17/17 at 4:41 pm to DallasTiger11
quote:
What the hell does that have to do with individual Senate races around the country?
Means in some states the GOP candidate would have to get more votes than Trump did.
quote:
The Republicans gaining that many seats as the party in power would definitely be unprecedented but political history isn't meaning as much in the current climate. Look who won the White House.
Very, very true.
Posted on 10/17/17 at 5:07 pm to Gaspergou202
quote:
Normally true. But 10 DNC states were won by trump. And DNC stand of no compromise combined with DNC leadership is not promising for these seats. Expect GOP gains in Senate. 11 Might be as unlikely as President Trump!
Yeah, we don't know what is going to happen here. this is what I love about politics.
The reality is the only thing working in the Rs favor right now is the map. And in 2016, we found out that maps don't always work the way they are supposed to.
The three big things that pop out to me are...
* What role will trump and congress's unpopularity play in the election?
* what will happen in the primary challenges? Will that provide a stronger or weaker candidate?
* What happens with tax reform? This is probably the biggest risk. It could make or break the election.
And while the map is favorable to Rs, the dems also have a few spots they think they might be able to pick off - AZ and NV, outside chance in nebraska.
My guess is that the Rs will pick up a seat or two. Probably winning 2-3 dem held seats (ND/MT/IN) and then lose a seat or two (AZ, NV).
Who knows though? The Rs really need a strong election this cycle though. 2020 map is almost all R, and with it being a presidential year it could be a big election. And then 2022, the map also has some states the Ds think they can pick off.
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