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Message
Bitter media manipulates approval polls via aggresive oversampling
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:27 pm
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:27 pm
quote:
New ABC / WaPo Poll Shows Drop In Trump Favorability Courtesy Of Aggressive "Oversamples"
quote:
In the month leaded up to the election on November 8th, we repeatedly demonstrated how the mainstream media polls from the likes of ABC/Washington Post, CNN and Reuters repeatedly manipulated their poll samples to engineer their desired results, namely a large Hillary Clinton lead (see "New Podesta Email Exposes Playbook For Rigging Polls Through 'Oversamples'" and "ABC/Wapo Effectively Admit To Poll Tampering As Hillary's "Lead" Shrinks To 2-Points"). In fact, just 16 days prior to the election an ABC/Wapo poll showed a 12-point lead for Hillary, a result that obviously turned out to be embarrassingly wrong for the pollsters.
But, proving they still got it, ABC/Washington Post and CNN are out with a pair of polls on Trump's favorability this morning that sport some of the most egregious "oversamples" we've seen. The ABC/Wapo poll showed an 8-point sampling margin for Democrats with only 23% of the results taken from Republicans...
LINK
This post was edited on 1/17/17 at 1:28 pm
8
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:33 pm to L.A.
How can anyone still put stock in the polling industry after the abortion that was 2016.
Polls off an average of 7 points in the swing states.
Nigel farage applies Occam's razor: the polling industry in the west is bankrupt
Polls off an average of 7 points in the swing states.
Nigel farage applies Occam's razor: the polling industry in the west is bankrupt
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:33 pm to L.A.
The MSM will try to justify their recent bad polls on Trump by going out and finding people who say "Yeah, I voted for Trump but now I realize what a horrible mistake I made."
Book it. That's how they operate.
However, it will conflict with last week's features on 'talking to Trump people about Russia'. The answer they got was 'I don't give a shite. I still love Trump.'
It was designed to cast Trump voters as stupid. But now it will conflict with their narrative that Trump supporters have changed their minds since the election.
Book it. That's how they operate.
However, it will conflict with last week's features on 'talking to Trump people about Russia'. The answer they got was 'I don't give a shite. I still love Trump.'
It was designed to cast Trump voters as stupid. But now it will conflict with their narrative that Trump supporters have changed their minds since the election.
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:36 pm to L.A.
I'm not even going to look at the polls after the sample bias in the past election.
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:36 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:Looks like about a 3.5 average to me
Polls off an average of 7 points in the swing states.
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:38 pm to L.A.
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:38 pm to Iosh
Georgia and Virginia not swing states
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:40 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
How can anyone still put stock in the polling industry after the abortion that was 2016.
Ive never understood how idiots like you turned "abhorrent" into "abortion" in your expression.
Didnt the "silent majority" taje credit for hiding their intentions? Cant have it both ways
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:41 pm to Zach
quote:
The MSM will try to justify their recent bad polls on Trump by going out and finding people who say "Yeah, I voted for Trump but now I realize what a horrible mistake I made."
What has he done since November 7 that someone (who ostensibly voted FOR him then) could really be thinking "shite, I really should have voted for Hillary instead"?
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:42 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:That's a list of every state with a <10 gap in the polling average. Are you using a different average, or are you just special pleading for individual states based on subjective criteria to protect your illogical conclusion?
Georgia and Virginia not swing states
This post was edited on 1/17/17 at 1:42 pm
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:43 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
What has he done since November 7 that someone (who ostensibly voted FOR him then) could really be thinking "shite, I really should have voted for Hillary instead"?
he has kind of backed down on the Obamacare rhetoric
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:44 pm to Iosh
My list of swing states:
Ohio
PA
WI
NC
FL
MI
IOWA
Maine
NH
CO
NV
MN
Ohio
PA
WI
NC
FL
MI
IOWA
Maine
NH
CO
NV
MN
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:44 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
What has he done since November 7 that someone (who ostensibly voted FOR him then) could really be thinking "shite, I really should have voted for Hillary instead"?
Yeah, they threw everything and the kitchen sink at this guy before the election. People aren't going to change their mind in a few months regardless of how many evidence-free claims of Russian hacking or hotel room rumors CNN can conjure up.
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:48 pm to Iosh
Notice the pollsters were way off in states that were critical to the path the the White House, battle ground states.
Utah was a prime target of Mitt Romney and the NeverTrumpers. The thought was take out Trump in Utah with McMuffin and Trump's path to the White House would be cut off. The media polls assisted Romney but whiffed by 8.5 points. Way outside the MOE.
Ohio was definitely a battle ground state where the media polls whiffed big time by 6.6 points. That is outside of the MOE of all polls.
The other important states, IA, PA, NC and MI, were other big media poll whiffs outside of the MOE.
There was no incentive to push poll in non-battle ground states so the pollsters got them right (i.e., within the MOE).
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:50 pm to GumboPot
Shh, don't shred iosh's "truthy" data.
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:51 pm to L.A.
Trump has to discredit the polls because his political opponents will use them as political fodder against him.
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:57 pm to L.A.
these were the national polls the day before the election.
Turns out, they were about as accurate as you can hope to get, but that doesn't fit Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge's narrative.
Turns out, they were about as accurate as you can hope to get, but that doesn't fit Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge's narrative.
Posted on 1/17/17 at 1:58 pm to Hugo Stiglitz
The state polls, especially in the Midwest, were off heftily.
Posted on 1/17/17 at 2:02 pm to Hugo Stiglitz
quote:Why didn't you link the source to where you found your information?
Turns out, they were about as accurate as you can hope to get, but that doesn't fit Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge's narrative.
Posted on 1/17/17 at 2:02 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
he has kind of backed down on the Obamacare rhetoric
Smart move. As terrible as Obama was/is, he is still well liked.
The media, on the other hand...
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