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Started By
Message
re: 60 Iraqi battalions unaccounted for or defeated
Posted on 6/23/14 at 11:41 am to LSURussian
Posted on 6/23/14 at 11:41 am to LSURussian
quote:
I really don't care who wins......
In a geopolitical sense, I don't either. If they weren't sitting on huge reserves of crude oil, I wouldn't care at all.
1
Posted on 6/23/14 at 11:43 am to Ace Midnight
quote:Doesn't matter who "wins" they will continue to sell the oil.
If they weren't sitting on huge reserves of crude oil, I wouldn't care at all.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 11:46 am to LSURussian
quote:
Doesn't matter who "wins" they will continue to sell the oil.
True, but disruptions will cause unpleasant fluctuations in both short-term and mid-term energy costs. Plus a protracted struggle in the immediate area of production can destroy facilities, wells, and other infrastructure causing an interruption in supply, which can greatly increase oil prices over multiple months, perhaps years - the Iran-Iraq War as well as Iraq's invasion of Kuwait are all examples of this.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 11:46 am to a want
quote:
"If the sons of Mosul don't think Mosul is worth fighting for, how can I ask my son or your son to fight for it".
this is spot on. there's no way anymore americans should step foot into iraq. let them take one another down. the innocents will flee the cities to somewhere else.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 11:50 am to Ace Midnight
quote:All of that is based on the fact that there is a war going on, not on who wins. Who wins in irrelevant to oil prices.
True, but disruptions will cause unpleasant fluctuations in both short-term and mid-term energy costs. Plus a protracted struggle in the immediate area of production can destroy facilities, wells, and other infrastructure causing an interruption in supply, which can greatly increase oil prices over multiple months, perhaps years - the Iran-Iraq War as well as Iraq's invasion of Kuwait are all examples of this.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 11:52 am to LSURussian
quote:
All of that is based on the fact that there is a war going on, not on who wins. Who wins in irrelevant to oil prices.
Good point. I don't care who wins. However, I am torn between wanting a protracted struggled (having our enemies bleed each other) and wanting it to end quickly for energy stability.
That's my conflict in a nutshell - thanks for bringing me to the point that I accept I don't care who wins, Russian - you're a true friend.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 12:10 pm to sbr2
quote:
There is a VICE episode that focuses on the Iraq "military" and their effectiveness. They expect American military units to handle the combat and they just tag along and shoot at random things, giving the impression that they are comically inept. Very few of them were actually fit for combat and the notion that so many are unaccounted for is still surprising.
There were some good and brave individual soldiers, platoons, companies, etc, but there was just no cohesion or standard (like, at all). They didn't know how to do staff work; logistics were always a complete clusterF with them.
I worked with an Iraqi battalion commander who was quite good...or at least as good as they can be in that country. He spoke some English as well. However, he was both Sunni and a former officer (a major or lieutenant colonel) in Saddam's army, so the chances of him retaining his command after the U.S. left are probably about 0%.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 12:13 pm to LSURussian
quote:
All of that is based on the fact that there is a war going on, not on who wins. Who wins in irrelevant to oil prices.
This.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 12:14 pm to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
so the chances of him retaining his command after the U.S. left are probably about 0%.
What are the chances that he's in ISIS now?
Posted on 6/23/14 at 12:16 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Doesn't matter who "wins" they will continue to sell the oil.
Demographics and external support all but guarantee that the Capital will hold, but having ISIL in charge of large and strategically important areas of the country does not bode well.
I like to remind people that this is the group that Zawahiri and the rest of AQ's senior leaders disavowed for being too radical in its ideology and too indiscriminate in its tactics.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 12:20 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
What are the chances that he's in ISIS now?
Ha, I am not sure - honestly, I don't think this particular guy would be inclined to that form of fighting. He was a soldier's soldier...and a career officer (and also, at least from what I could tell, not particularly religious).
Now, some of the sheiks with whom we worked (and to whom we gave an obscene amount of money)? There is absolutely zero doubt in my mind about some of them. I could probably name three or four off the top of my head that I am certain are working with ISIS, if not outright supplying fighters and a network.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 12:25 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
Fwiw, the numbers are going to spike at the beginning, as the lesser trained/more apt to leave are weeded out. Hopefully what you'll have left are the professionals.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 12:27 pm to Jcorye1
quote:
Hopefully what you'll have left are the professionals.
Yep, and those badasses will have two, count em, two Cessnas to provide air support.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 1:00 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Cessnas
They use these for air support?
Posted on 6/23/14 at 1:03 pm to Vegas Eddie
Yep. They strap Hellfire missiles onto the wings and go to town.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 1:05 pm to teke184
quote:
They also killed two Iranian border guards.
Maybe the Iranians will give more of a shite about murdered border agents than the US seems to.
This post was edited on 6/23/14 at 1:06 pm
Posted on 6/23/14 at 1:06 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Yep. They strap Hellfire missiles onto the wings and go to town.
Hell, Honduras and El Salvador were chucking bombs out of the cargo bay of old US cargo planes during the Footbal War of the 1960s.
Strap an Iraqi deserter to the bomb and send him down Slim Pickins style onto ISIS.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 1:11 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Yep. They strap Hellfire missiles onto the wings and go to town.
Damn, learn something new every day
Posted on 6/23/14 at 2:35 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Iraqi units are probably a bit smaller. Maybe even half the size.
It would be a safe estimate to reduce the organizational size of the units one level. Battalions become companies, companies become platoons. most of these units were checkpoint warriors or out on leave during this time frame. After watching the ISIS guys hit the checkpoints I imagine most of the units that were destroyed had 4-10 guys in a checkpoint asleep of making coffee and probably had limited ammo from which to stage a resistance. ISIS was fantastic at executing those operations with basically the equivalent of 2 squads of dudes hitting the CP hard and breaching with RPGs and satchel style charges. Some of those attacks began with a SDM taking out one or two guys on the roof and pinning down the fortified MG positions, then they wen hey little diddle up the middle and popped the Army at close range. I was actually a little bit proud of how well planned these ops went. I could do without the head cutting stuff though. little over the top for me. The truth is that the Iraqi army got hit while in their Alamo positions and were not ready at all. When they re consolidate their only option will be to rejoin the Government forces and copy the tactics used against them. I also expect to see a lot of bombs being used to cut off egress routes around Tal Afar and West Mosul. These poor Iraqi kids are going through another hellacious bout of stupidity and I feel for them, terribly.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 2:52 pm to MrCarton
quote:
SIS was fantastic at executing those operations with basically the equivalent of 2 squads of dudes hitting the CP hard and breaching with RPGs and satchel style charges. Some of those attacks began with a SDM taking out one or two guys on the roof and pinning down the fortified MG positions, then they wen hey little diddle up the middle and popped the Army at close range.
I don't care who you are, I don't need no Army dude explaining light infantry tactics to me.
quote:
When they re consolidate their only option will be to rejoin the Government forces and copy the tactics used against them. I also expect to see a lot of bombs being used to cut off egress routes around Tal Afar and West Mosul.
Do you think the Iraqi army will actually try to take back the territory or are the content with just holding Baghdad and the South?
quote:
I could do without the head cutting stuff though. little over the top for me.
Agreed. I draw the line at pissing on the enemy dead.
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