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Message
2018 Senate races
Posted on 2/1/17 at 8:46 am
Posted on 2/1/17 at 8:46 am
Right now the Senate is 52 GOP 48 Dem.
Here's how I see it playing out:
Likely GOP Pickups in Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, West Virginia, North Dakota, and Ohio.
Toss ups in Montana and Nevada (sole GOP seat that might be lost).
Slight Dem leans in Virginia, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
Slight Rep lean in Arizona (GOP hold).
So that would put us at ~58 solid GOP senators, with the potential to get to 60 if the tossups trend favorably or if we can steal one Dem lean.
Here's how I see it playing out:
Likely GOP Pickups in Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, West Virginia, North Dakota, and Ohio.
Toss ups in Montana and Nevada (sole GOP seat that might be lost).
Slight Dem leans in Virginia, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
Slight Rep lean in Arizona (GOP hold).
So that would put us at ~58 solid GOP senators, with the potential to get to 60 if the tossups trend favorably or if we can steal one Dem lean.
This post was edited on 2/1/17 at 8:48 am
9
Posted on 2/1/17 at 8:50 am to GeneralLee
quote:
Likely GOP Pickups in Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, West Virginia, North Dakota, and Ohio.
That is extremely optimistic.
Posted on 2/1/17 at 8:52 am to GeneralLee
quote:
Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, West Virginia, North Dakota, and Ohio.
I agree with all of those, except for West Virginia. I think Manchin's voting record and willingness (or not) to work with the Republicans will decide his fate.
Posted on 2/1/17 at 8:56 am to GeneralLee
Would low energy Jen run for senate? Or is it rick Scott ?
Posted on 2/1/17 at 8:58 am to GeneralLee
I can't wait to further crush the far-left agenda.
Posted on 2/1/17 at 9:02 am to CaptChandler
quote:
I agree with all of those, except for West Virginia. I think Manchin's voting record and willingness (or not) to work with the Republicans will decide his fate.
Fair enough, Wisconsin and Ohio might be a bit optimistic as well. I think 50/50 chance Manchin switches parties before 2018, and 50/50 chance he loses if he runs as a Dem in 2018 so that would put the odds of a GOP pickup there at 75%.
Posted on 2/1/17 at 9:37 am to GeneralLee
quote:
So that would put us at ~58 solid GOP senators, with the potential to get to 60
That would a true boot on the neck moment for the Dems. Got to admire the fire of this Admin though. They aren't putting up with shiiiiiiiiiiiit.
Posted on 2/1/17 at 9:38 am to GeneralLee
#VoteOutDemocrats
Posted on 2/1/17 at 9:58 am to GeneralLee
quote:
West Virginia
Would not think so... Manchin is a Democrat, but he is the last of the good one. I think people in both parties see him as a reasonable, respectable, responsible pro-American Democrat.
I have mixed feelings. Every seat counts, so push come to shove, I would want a CONSERVATIVE Republican to take the seat. I just wish it would be one of the Pelosi-type wackos rather than a guy like Manchin.
This post was edited on 2/1/17 at 9:59 am
Posted on 2/1/17 at 9:59 am to GeneralLee
A lot depends on what Trump does over the next year or so. Remember how Obama had a solid majority in the House and Senate after his inauguration in 2008? Then remember how the 2010 mid-terms turned out for him?
Posted on 2/1/17 at 10:03 am to AustinTigr
quote:I believe there is a higher probability that he finally tells the Dems to GFY and he changes his party affiliation.
West Virginia
Would not think so... Manchin is a Democrat, but he is the last of the good one.
Posted on 2/1/17 at 10:06 am to GeneralLee
I would be thrilled with holding the 52-48 majority.
Just holding that will be an incredible accomplishment for how mobilized the left will be this next midterm.
Just holding that will be an incredible accomplishment for how mobilized the left will be this next midterm.
Posted on 2/1/17 at 10:07 am to LSURussian
quote:
I believe there is a higher probability that he finally tells the Dems to GFY and he changes his party affiliation.
Yep. He's willing to listen to his constituents. The others I'm not to sure about.
Posted on 2/1/17 at 10:09 am to cokebottleag
quote:
Just holding that will be an incredible accomplishment for how mobilized the left will be this next midterm.
Maybe on the coasts they are mobilized... but I don't think that is going to translate much to the flyover states.
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