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Started By
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2018 Senate Races, could we see significant gains by the GOP
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:12 pm
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:12 pm
I have read that 25 Dems are up for re-election and 5-6 of those have a major chance of losing their seat due to being in Red States. Could we possibly see the Senate going to 60-40 in favor of the GOP???
The tossups are
Joe Donnelly Indiana
Claire McCaskil Missouri
Heidi Heitkamp North Dakota
Sherrod Brown Ohio
Joe Manchin West Virginia (May flip to Republican)
Tammy Baldwin Wisconsin
Jon Tester Montana (how in the heck does Montana have a Dem Senator?)
The GOP Senator from Nevada is the only one who has a chance of losing their seat depending on who is running against them.
The tossups are
Joe Donnelly Indiana
Claire McCaskil Missouri
Heidi Heitkamp North Dakota
Sherrod Brown Ohio
Joe Manchin West Virginia (May flip to Republican)
Tammy Baldwin Wisconsin
Jon Tester Montana (how in the heck does Montana have a Dem Senator?)
The GOP Senator from Nevada is the only one who has a chance of losing their seat depending on who is running against them.
11
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:13 pm to Al Bundy Bulldog
Not if they keep stomping on their dicks with golf spikes.
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:13 pm to Al Bundy Bulldog
2018 will probably result in Dem gains in house and GOP
Gains in senate.
Democrats still have a nagging issue: their "base" is not known to
Be reliable midterm voters.
Gains in senate.
Democrats still have a nagging issue: their "base" is not known to
Be reliable midterm voters.
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:16 pm to Al Bundy Bulldog
quote:
I have read that 25 Dems are up for re-election and 5-6 of those have a major chance of losing their seat due to being in Red States. Could we possibly see the Senate going to 60-40 in favor of the GOP???
No way they get to 60 unless the GOP goes on a killer streak.
Generally speaking the party in power loses a touch at the midterms. This will surely happen in the house, I suspect the dems might lose a seat or two in the senate but the Rs will not get to 60.
Mid terms are a weird beast. Dems are crazy energized right now, and Rs are demoralized. This could be a big change in the senate. And it could really frick the Rs in redistricting in 2020.
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:18 pm to Hawkeye95
Here's the issue though, Hawkeye: according to research, midterm elections are low turnout elections where few independents vote. It's a base election. Historically, the Obama era democratic "base" of minorities and young people do not vote often. Midterm elections are older and whiter
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:20 pm to Hawkeye95
I ain't no ways demoralized
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:25 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Here's the issue though, Hawkeye: according to research, midterm elections are low turnout elections where few independents vote. It's a base election. Historically, the Obama era democratic "base" of minorities and young people do not vote often. Midterm elections are older and whiter
Yeah, enthusiasm is the distinction in mid terms. The dems had a pretty good turnout in 2006, when they were energized.
But yeah, old whites show up at every election. Will enough of the youth and minorities show up in 2018? We will have to wait and see. I think they show enough to get the house close to even. Not sure about the senate though.
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:28 pm to Al Bundy Bulldog
The GOP could lose 6 to 11 gubernatorial races. Which could hurt in redistricting.
GOP will lose house seats
GOP will lose governors
GOP will lose state seats
GOP could gain Senate seats
GOP will lose house seats
GOP will lose governors
GOP will lose state seats
GOP could gain Senate seats
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:30 pm to Hawkeye95
quote:
No way they get to 60 unless the GOP goes on a killer streak.
Have you been alive the last few years? What exactly do you call the streak we are on?
As all of these cards fall into place...healthcare, trade, jobs, taxes, etc.....2018 will 'be great for repubs.
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:31 pm to Hawkeye95
quote:
Dems are crazy energized right now, and Rs are demoralized.
Trump was sworn in 60 days ago and somehow the Dems are Energized and the R's are demoralized?
I'll say it again, something that all liberals ignore
DEMOCRATS LOST 1100+ SEATS since 2009, nationwide.... What's changed in that party?
This post was edited on 4/11/17 at 2:32 pm
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:31 pm to Al Bundy Bulldog
GOP wins all the ones you listed with possible exception of WI
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:32 pm to the LSUSaint
quote:
As all of these cards fall into place...healthcare, trade, jobs, taxes, etc.....2018 will 'be great for repubs.
Yeah, that would be a killer streak. If they can nail healthcare, trade, and taxes - they win big in 2018. So far, its not looking good on any of those fronts.
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:34 pm to Al Bundy Bulldog
quote:
The tossups are
Joe Donnelly Indiana
Claire McCaskil Missouri
Heidi Heitkamp North Dakota
Sherrod Brown Ohio
Joe Manchin West Virginia (May flip to Republican)
Tammy Baldwin Wisconsin
Jon Tester Montana (how in the heck does Montana have a Dem Senator?)
You forgot Bill Nelson (Florida). I expect that race to go down to the wire.
Also PA & MI will have seats up in 2018. Although I would be kind of shocked to see a Dem unseated in those two states, those states did go to Trump. So it's not totally out of the realm of possibility for one of those seats to fall.
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:35 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Historically, the Obama era democratic "base" of minorities and young people do not vote often. Midterm elections are older and whiter
You must be cloistered in a cave if you can't tell the discrepancy in enthusiasm between the parties since Trump's inauguration has widened drastically, and not in a good direction for you.
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:36 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Democrats still have a nagging issue: their "base" is not known to Be reliable midterm voters.
Was Donald Trump President during those elections?
Think about that.
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:37 pm to BamaAtl
quote:
and not in a good direction for you.
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:41 pm to BugAC
Karl Rove had a strategy that worked. His long term goal put GOP in great position to hurt the Dems.
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:41 pm to Al Bundy Bulldog
here's the #'s for everyone up in 2018 (approval/disapproval)
Sanders 75/21 (+54)
Barrasso 69/17 (+52)
King 67/23 (+44)
Carper 65/22 (+43)
Klobuchar 63/26 (+37)
Gillibrand 56/22 (+34)
Hirono 57/24 (+33)
Cardin 54/21 (+33)
Whitehouse 59/28 (+31)
Corker 57/26 (+31)
Cantwell 56/27 (+29)
Heitkamp 60/32 (+28)
Nelson 53/26 (+27)
Wicker 52/25 (+27)
Cruz 57/31 (+26)
Tester 57/32 (+25)
Fischer 56/31 (+25)
Manchin 57/33 (+24)
Murphy 55/33 (+22)
Brown 52/30 (+22)
Feinstein 53/23 (+20)
Casey 49/29 (+20) - D
Donnelly 46/26 (+20) - D
Warren 56/38 (+18) - D
Hatch 53/36 (+17) - R
Heinrich 48/31 (+17) - D
Kaine 50/36 (+14) - D
Heller 43/32 (+11) - R
Stabenow 47/38 (+9) - D
McCaskill 47/39 (+8) - D
Baldwin 44/38 (+6) - D
Flake 44/38 (+6) - R
Menendez 40/36 (+4) - D
Sanders 75/21 (+54)
Barrasso 69/17 (+52)
King 67/23 (+44)
Carper 65/22 (+43)
Klobuchar 63/26 (+37)
Gillibrand 56/22 (+34)
Hirono 57/24 (+33)
Cardin 54/21 (+33)
Whitehouse 59/28 (+31)
Corker 57/26 (+31)
Cantwell 56/27 (+29)
Heitkamp 60/32 (+28)
Nelson 53/26 (+27)
Wicker 52/25 (+27)
Cruz 57/31 (+26)
Tester 57/32 (+25)
Fischer 56/31 (+25)
Manchin 57/33 (+24)
Murphy 55/33 (+22)
Brown 52/30 (+22)
Feinstein 53/23 (+20)
Casey 49/29 (+20) - D
Donnelly 46/26 (+20) - D
Warren 56/38 (+18) - D
Hatch 53/36 (+17) - R
Heinrich 48/31 (+17) - D
Kaine 50/36 (+14) - D
Heller 43/32 (+11) - R
Stabenow 47/38 (+9) - D
McCaskill 47/39 (+8) - D
Baldwin 44/38 (+6) - D
Flake 44/38 (+6) - R
Menendez 40/36 (+4) - D
Posted on 4/11/17 at 2:42 pm to Al Bundy Bulldog
If the economy is going strong there will be gains
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