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Started By
Message
Pels chances to make playoffs = 39.6%
Posted on 4/15/15 at 7:39 am
Posted on 4/15/15 at 7:39 am
OKC -2000
MIN +1200
Zero-vig odds: -1238 / +1238
Zero-vig probabilities: 92.5% / 7.5%
SAN -202
NOP +181
Zero-vig odds: -188 / +188
Zero-vig probabilities: 65.3% / 34.7%
P(OKC makes playoffs) = P(OKC win) * P(NOP loss) = 92.5% * 65.3% = 60.4%
P(NOP makes playoffs) = 1 - P(OKC makes playoffs) = 1 - 60.4% = 39.6%
of course, this all depends on whether you believe the Vegas odds are the true odds
MIN +1200
Zero-vig odds: -1238 / +1238
Zero-vig probabilities: 92.5% / 7.5%
SAN -202
NOP +181
Zero-vig odds: -188 / +188
Zero-vig probabilities: 65.3% / 34.7%
P(OKC makes playoffs) = P(OKC win) * P(NOP loss) = 92.5% * 65.3% = 60.4%
P(NOP makes playoffs) = 1 - P(OKC makes playoffs) = 1 - 60.4% = 39.6%
of course, this all depends on whether you believe the Vegas odds are the true odds
4
Posted on 4/15/15 at 7:47 am to gizmoflak
Point of Fact:
The playoffs begin tonight. Win and progress. That's what playoffs are.
So, the Pels have a 100% chance of making the playoffs.
The playoffs begin tonight. Win and progress. That's what playoffs are.
So, the Pels have a 100% chance of making the playoffs.
Posted on 4/15/15 at 7:49 am to soccerfüt
quote:
So, the Pels have a 100% chance of making the playoffs.
Posted on 4/15/15 at 8:34 am to Mr.Perfect
Well he's not wrong.
Posted on 4/15/15 at 8:36 am to soccerfüt
quote:
The playoffs begin tonight. Win and progress. That's what playoffs are.
When can you lose game 7 and still advance? Pels can do that tonight (Lose and still advance). This isn't a playoff game.
This post was edited on 4/15/15 at 8:37 am
Posted on 4/15/15 at 8:38 am to gizmoflak
I put a hundo on the Pels ML at +180. Total homer pick but I do believe they win with a raucous home crowd and more motivation to win than the Spurs. The main thing that worries me is that the NBA wants the Thunder in the playoffs for financial reasons.
Posted on 4/15/15 at 8:47 am to Zipfer2022
quote:
the NBA wants the Thunder in the playoffs for basketball reasons
fify
Posted on 4/15/15 at 8:47 am to gizmoflak
Those odds makers can geaux suck a dick.
GEAUX PELS! BEAT THE SPURS!
GEAUX PELS! BEAT THE SPURS!
Posted on 4/15/15 at 8:51 am to gizmoflak
You really think the Thunder would put up a better fight in the 1st round against the Warriors? I disagree completely.
Posted on 4/15/15 at 8:58 am to Zipfer2022
quote:
You really think the Thunder would put up a better fight in the 1st round against the Warriors?
not at all. Silvern would never admit to financial reasons for rigging shite, just basketball reasons
Posted on 4/15/15 at 9:07 am to gizmoflak
That looks sound to me but that still sounds low given the inherent advantage the Pels have with the tie breaker. Surprising it's only an incremental difference of less than 5% but I guess not that surprising given that it's not worth all that much with OKC being an extreme favorite.
This post was edited on 4/15/15 at 9:12 am
Posted on 4/15/15 at 10:38 am to tzimme4
quote:
When can you lose game 7 and still advance? Pels can do that tonight (Lose and still advance). This isn't a playoff game.
Duly noted valid point.
Still, my contention of the Pels winning tonight's game holds some water.
Posted on 4/15/15 at 11:43 am to quail man
quote:
Well he's not wrong.
yes he is
regular season does not = playoffs no matter how you spin it
Posted on 4/15/15 at 4:53 pm to Mr.Perfect
The probability of the Pels both losing and advancing tonight approaches zero.
The T-Wolves are more like She-wolves.
The T-Wolves are more like She-wolves.
Posted on 4/15/15 at 5:25 pm to soccerfüt
quote:
The probability of the Pels both losing and advancing tonight approaches zero
bout 5% son
Posted on 4/15/15 at 5:26 pm to gizmoflak
So If I put up $19.00 for that parlay, I'd win a dollar.
Where do I sign up, Ol' Timer?
Where do I sign up, Ol' Timer?
This post was edited on 4/15/15 at 5:27 pm
Posted on 4/15/15 at 5:31 pm to soccerfüt
quote:
So If I put up $19.00 for that parlay, I'd win a dollar.
1 to win 19 or so
Posted on 4/15/15 at 5:53 pm to gizmoflak
39.6% chance I try to suck my own dick tonight
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