re: This team will make the elite 8

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this team has a better chance of not making the tourney than making the elite 8.

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has about a 60% chance of making the tourney. so 40% not making.

As for making the elite 8, there is a non-zero chance LSU is in the 11-11 play in game. If that happens, LSU plays an extra game vs an evenly matched team just to get to the round of 64.
as 11, they play the 6. They will be dogs in that game, but we will give them 45% chance of winning.
not even counting the 50% chance of losing the 11 11 game because they may be an 8,9, or 10, or 12, they have about a 50% chance of losing in the round of 64. Then they will play a better team in the round of 32. If they are a 8/9, they will be playing Virginia, a #1 seed, or the 2nd place ACC team if Duke and virginia both get #1 seeds. They do not have a 50/50 chance of beating a 1 seed. let's go with 30% chance to beat the opponent, a 1, 2, or 3 seed. 30% of 50% = 15% to get to the round of 16, where they will play a 1 or 2 or 3 depending on their seeding. another 30%. we are down to 4.5% chance to get to the round of 8.

THEREFORE, it is MORE LIKELY that LSU is not in the NCAA tournament than LSU is in the round of 8.

You can make up any seed you want to for LSU, from 8 to 12 and use whatever percentages you like, based on a couple of upsets, so that LSU does not have to play the 3, because the 14 takes them out. its STILL going to be under 10% to get to the round of 8.