How many cycles will it take for dems to take back the house?

I suspect it will be 2022. Why 2022?

Well, re-allocation of congressional districts happens after the census (2020). And democrats do better during presidential election years, so they will claim a good bit of governorships and state legislatures, so they can re-apportion the seats to help them out. Much like republicans did in 2010.

The first thing you have to look at is: what was this vote really about? Damned near everyone who campaigned against a Dem ran on that their Dem opponent voted for Obamacare, not their own merits. This tells me the mid-terms were more about the ACA backlash than anything else.

With that in mind, if the employer mandate turns out to be the steaming clusterfrick that the individual mandate has been, then look for the GOP to win the next 2-3 cycles, maybe 4 if they repeal the ACA (voters have short memories, so 4 is a long shot). If the GOP does not make a visible attempt to remove the ACA or SCOTUS doesn't rule against it in the Spring, the wins could end with the 2016 elections.

The biggest problem the Dems face with all this is that (at least right now) their top contender is Hillary and she has the same sort of healthcare reform albatross hanging around her neck that Romney did. She not only tried to push her own when Bill was President (ie: Hillarycare) but she has been a big supporter of the ACA. At a time when anti-ACA sentiment is riding high, she's going to be a very poor choice as candidate because of that background.

With that, the GOP could run pretty much anyone (yes, even Jindal) and win in 2016 (barring unforeseen events like war, economic meltdown, etc).

Shortly after the next Republican wins the presidential election

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Donna brazil was on just now saying it will take at least 2 cycles, probably more, due to the incredibly high reelection rates.

I would argue that the democratic midterm problem is just as bad as the republican minority problem.

What's the point of having hillary in there if her only job is to veto a republican congress?

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First mid-term after a new Republican president should produce solid gains (there have been exceptions, but the two-year curse is as good a trend as any in modern politics). I don't know if they'll retake the house, but they will probably strenghten their position heading into the next round of elections--especially if the Republican president isn't popular and/or they produce a strong candidate.

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The difference is far too wide.

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As of the 111th Congress (2009-2011). the Dems had a 79 seat margin. They lost all of that in the aforementioned first midterm election slaughter (two-year curse). Conditions aren't identical and redistricting efforts will shore up some Republican gains, but I have a hard time believing anybody is holding a 20-50 year majority any time soon. FDR's democratic coalition held on for as long as any in US history, and even its 63 year run had a couple of interruptions. Maybe one party will make it through 10 cycles at some point, but I wouldn't count on it. 50 years? No way.