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re: UPDATED: SEC team capable of winning the West with 2 or 3 SEC losses per year?

Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:54 am to
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:54 am to
I quoted what I responded to....I'm sorry if you dont like the math. It's just math, man. It cant hurt you.
Posted by LNCHBOX
70448
Member since Jun 2009
84124 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:55 am to
quote:

I quoted what I responded to..


Good job on ignoring all the times you are made to look like a fool. Bold strategy.
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:58 am to
look like a fool?

Is there a problem with the stats I calculated? You seemed to imply I ignored the undefeated regular season, but I didnt.

What made me look like a fool in this thread?

Is it that Miles will lose between 2 and 3 games every season in the SEC? Do you think that number is wrong?

Do you think that number is somehow "bashing" miles?

Maybe you can explain how the fact Miles losses between 2 and 3 games in the sec on average makes me look like a fool....
Posted by monsterballads
Make LSU Great Again
Member since Jun 2013
29267 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:58 am to
no it's not good enough but that's what the AD thinks is acceptable.
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 11:59 am to
quote:

no it's not good enough but that's what the AD thinks is acceptable.




which brings up a good follow up question.

If the AD thinks it is acceptable, should the AD be shown the door?
Posted by LNCHBOX
70448
Member since Jun 2009
84124 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 12:00 pm to
quote:

look like a fool?


Yes.

quote:

Is there a problem with the stats I calculated? You seemed to imply I ignored the undefeated regular season, but I didnt.


Didn't ignore it, and didn't say it wasn't included in your calcs.

quote:

Is it that Miles will lose between 2 and 3 games every season in the SEC? Do you think that number is wrong?


This has not always been the case, and you don't know that it will be in the future.

quote:

Do you think that number is somehow "bashing" miles?


Never said that.

quote:

Maybe you can explain how the fact Miles losses between 2 and 3 games in the sec on average makes me look like a fool....


That's not what it is. You've said plenty of foolish things.
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 12:03 pm to
quote:

This has not always been the case, and you don't know that it will be in the future.



no, but we can be certain to a 90-95% confidence level that it will happen. Thats pretty damn specific.

quote:

You've said plenty of foolish things.



But you said I looked like a fool IN THIS THREAD.

What about this thread made me a "fool"? All I did was some calculations and posted the results...then you got your panties in a wad. Pretty telling imho.
Posted by LNCHBOX
70448
Member since Jun 2009
84124 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 12:05 pm to
quote:

no, but we can be certain to a 90-95% confidence level that it will happen. Thats pretty damn specific.



So to paraphrase: This has not always been the case, and you don't know that it will be in the future.

quote:

But you said I looked like a fool IN THIS THREAD.


You are a fool. That is truth in any thread you post in. It's even true in threads you don't post in.

quote:

What about this thread made me a "fool"? All I did was some calculations and posted the results...then you got your panties in a wad. Pretty telling imho.

Look up.
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 12:08 pm to
quote:

So to paraphrase: This has not always been the case, and you don't know that it will be in the future.



Im sorry you dont understand statistics. I suggest taking a course.

quote:

You are a fool.


nothing like good ole ad hominem when you cant argue facts. Sad, but expected.



Posted by LNCHBOX
70448
Member since Jun 2009
84124 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 12:11 pm to
quote:

Im sorry you dont understand statistics. I suggest taking a course.


How is what I said wrong? I say it one way, you say it another. See, now you're being a fool.

quote:

nothing like good ole ad hominem when you cant argue facts. Sad, but expected.


Don't stop being you, ever. It's always funny when you ignore the substance of a post you can't argue with and just spout off bullshite. You asked me why I thought you were a fool, I answer, then you accuse me of an ad hominem. Just further proof you are in fact a fool.
This post was edited on 11/26/14 at 12:14 pm
Posted by geauxjo
Gonzales, LA
Member since Sep 2004
14745 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 12:16 pm to


quote:


Miley has proven capable of winning the West 3 times out of 10. I'll say he's plenty capable.
[/quote]

This is really all that needs to be said. Any other attempt to re-arrange history through agenda-clouded statistics is useless.
This post was edited on 11/26/14 at 12:18 pm
Posted by Loveland Tiger
Colorado
Member since Nov 2014
5259 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 12:16 pm to
Maybe, when Saban retires.
Posted by LNCHBOX
70448
Member since Jun 2009
84124 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 12:17 pm to
quote:

Maybe, when Saban retires.


Ignoring the two times we've won the west while he's been at Bama, right?

Posted by Loveland Tiger
Colorado
Member since Nov 2014
5259 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 12:21 pm to
With 2 or 3 Ls?
Posted by LNCHBOX
70448
Member since Jun 2009
84124 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 12:21 pm to
quote:

With 2


2007.
Posted by Boomtown
Member since Jan 2014
1986 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 12:24 pm to
interesting stuff. The other teams are certainly improving, while it appears LSU is remaining stagnant. Is that a case of more parity in the SEC West? I'd have to look it up but I'd assume it's an outlier when a team wins the SEC with <1 loss. If the low end is 1.5 w/that high of a probability then it seems like it will take a special season to win the SEC, let alone the West, given how much the overall division has improved.
Posted by Loveland Tiger
Colorado
Member since Nov 2014
5259 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 12:26 pm to
That's your argument? Bama is much stronger. And the original question was going forward, I assume.

But, whatever. This is America and we can believe what we want.

And another thing, sec championships get rarer as the conference expands. Know what that means for all sports, including football?



Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 12:36 pm to
quote:

The other teams are certainly improving, while it appears LSU is remaining stagnant. Is that a case of more parity in the SEC West? I'd have to look it up but I'd assume it's an outlier when a team wins the SEC with <1 loss. If the low end is 1.5 w/that high of a probability then it seems like it will take a special season to win the SEC, let alone the West, given how much the overall division has improved.



Yep. That analysis combined with this thread shows that the SEC as a whole, particularly the SECw has gotten much better the last 5 years.

However those are total wins, it would be interesting to do the same report just with conference games, and I think it will show that LSU has slipped slightly while other teams have gotten better.

With a 95 CI on the low end of 1.5 losses, I think you're right, it will be extremely difficult for LSU to win the west going forward at this point. For example, last year we had all that NFL talent and still lost 3 games. I think we would need a historic level team to be able to compete strongly for the west going forward under Miles.
Posted by LNCHBOX
70448
Member since Jun 2009
84124 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 12:38 pm to
quote:

That's your argument?


You asked when we did it with two losses with Saban. That's when we did it.

quote:

Bama is much stronger. And the original question was going forward, I assume.


So Bama will never have a down year? Ever?

quote:

And another thing, sec championships get rarer as the conference expands. Know what that means for all sports, including football?


Our fans should lower their absolutely ridiculous expectations and stop being nothing but negative?
Posted by Loveland Tiger
Colorado
Member since Nov 2014
5259 posts
Posted on 11/26/14 at 12:42 pm to
None of us know what will happen, but I'd put my money on fewer sec championships, REGARDLESS, of the coach. The league keeps growing, so the pie gets divided up more and more.

Another way to look at it, how many other times has 2 or 3 losses won the secc?

I'll be dead before that occurs again, for sure.

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