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Started By
Message
Les Miles’ buyout is not that big of an obstacle
Posted on 11/19/14 at 3:55 pm
Posted on 11/19/14 at 3:55 pm
His buyout is currently $15 million. On Jan 1, 2016 the buyout drops to $12.9 million. Its pretty much a given that Miles will get another year, so I will base my numbers on next years buyout.
Projecting that we lose 4 games next year, as we did in 2009 when JJ and Lee were in their 2nd year (as Jennings and Harris will be) fans will be ready for a change. And will show their frustration in declining ticket sales.
There are 102,321 seat in TS. There are 7 home games, and probably a lesser bowl game. $12.9 million divided by those 8 games is $1.6 million per game. Divide that by the number of seats in TS, and you get just $15.64 per seat, per game. I AM NOT ADVOCATING RAISING TICKET PRICES. I am however calculating how a decline in attendance, as well as parking, concessions, and memorabilia could easily offset the $12.9 mil buyout.
The average seat costs $60 on game day. To get to $1.6 million per game, about 26,000 (25%) tickets would have to go unsold. But with a decline in tickets you also see less concessions, parking, and memorabilia revenue, so you could safely say that 13,000 (13%) unsold seats per game could easily produce a $12.9 million dollar loss in revenue.
So does TAF lose the $12.9 million to the buyout, or in revenue?
The buyout basically becomes a wash, if LSU has another down year.
Projecting that we lose 4 games next year, as we did in 2009 when JJ and Lee were in their 2nd year (as Jennings and Harris will be) fans will be ready for a change. And will show their frustration in declining ticket sales.
There are 102,321 seat in TS. There are 7 home games, and probably a lesser bowl game. $12.9 million divided by those 8 games is $1.6 million per game. Divide that by the number of seats in TS, and you get just $15.64 per seat, per game. I AM NOT ADVOCATING RAISING TICKET PRICES. I am however calculating how a decline in attendance, as well as parking, concessions, and memorabilia could easily offset the $12.9 mil buyout.
The average seat costs $60 on game day. To get to $1.6 million per game, about 26,000 (25%) tickets would have to go unsold. But with a decline in tickets you also see less concessions, parking, and memorabilia revenue, so you could safely say that 13,000 (13%) unsold seats per game could easily produce a $12.9 million dollar loss in revenue.
So does TAF lose the $12.9 million to the buyout, or in revenue?
The buyout basically becomes a wash, if LSU has another down year.
17
Posted on 11/19/14 at 3:57 pm to League Champs
quote::
Projecting that we lose 4 games next year, as we did in 2009 when JJ and Lee were in their 2nd year (as Jennings and Harris will be) fans will be ready for a change
Posted on 11/19/14 at 3:57 pm to League Champs
$12.9M buyout is prohibitive. Period.
Les is going nowhere. PERIOD
Les is going nowhere. PERIOD
Posted on 11/19/14 at 3:57 pm to Sid in Lakeshore
Enough with the buyout threads...Les is not going anywhere soon.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 3:58 pm to League Champs
win at all cost without due diligence attitude and caving in to the agent got us here, $ gets us out, we should look for an up and coming coach trying to prove himself, answerable to his employers, to hell with his agent, and make his compensation largely incentive based
Posted on 11/19/14 at 4:00 pm to League Champs
Thanks for the pointless calculations
Posted on 11/19/14 at 4:02 pm to League Champs
quote:
So does TAF lose the $12.9 million to the buyout, or in revenue?
The buyout basically becomes a wash, if LSU has another down year.
As easy as it seems to boycott it won't happen. The Donors have to want him gone bad. He's not going anywhere unless you're going to right a check for 15 million. Even after that I don't think Alleva pulls the trigger. Best case scenario is he leaves for Michigan
Posted on 11/19/14 at 4:02 pm to sjmabry
quote:
Enough with the buyout threads...Les is not going anywhere soon.
If LSU has yet another average to below average season, he may.
3 losses followed by 3 losses followed by 4 or more losses, followed by another crap season and it's entirely possible. I, for one, am rooting for it. The right guy with the right charisma that can actually coach can dominate at LSU due to the recruiting ground.
This post was edited on 11/19/14 at 4:03 pm
Posted on 11/19/14 at 4:03 pm to League Champs
Man, you worked so hard on that. Then you posted REALLY thinking you were gonna get some pats on the back.
But nope. Just downvotes.
But nope. Just downvotes.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 4:03 pm to TheMadeMan
quote:
I, for one, am rooting for it
Posted on 11/19/14 at 4:04 pm to League Champs
you are using the term "offset" wrong.
Preventing future losses is what you ar talking about.
your basic premise rests on LSu being only able to sell 70,000 tickets a game, and i just don't see that happening after a 9-4 season.
I also don't see 9-4 happening next year.
Preventing future losses is what you ar talking about.
your basic premise rests on LSu being only able to sell 70,000 tickets a game, and i just don't see that happening after a 9-4 season.
I also don't see 9-4 happening next year.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 4:05 pm to TheMadeMan
quote:
3 losses followed by 3 losses followed by 4 or more losses, followed by another crap season and it's entirely possible. I, for one, am rooting for it.
Wow......Ive always thought it but Ive never seen a negatiger say it. I mean hell I think its time for a parting of ways but I would never root for a bad season to get rid of a coach. I was ready to get brady and likewise Trent johnson out. I still cheered like hell and was pissed with every loss.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 4:06 pm to League Champs
TAF already comes up with the monies to make Miles and his staff the highest paid in the country to produce 20 offensive points in the last 3 SEC games.
We are not going to bail the BOS out, all the while paying off the stadium addition and the New Alex Box. Not gonna happen.
No one is motivated enough anyway. Miles would have to leave of his own accord, and that's not happening. He doesn't have any market value.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 4:06 pm to League Champs
quote:
League Champs
Thanks for posting because we all know it's all about the dollars. A major loss of revenue would be declines in Suites, Club, and Sponsorships. In my view, that would start the real number crunching. Of course, there's always the Michigan variable. The question is how much time LSU fans are willing to give a new coach to get to championship level again? There will be a transition period.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 4:08 pm to teeMike
Stahp. Please stahp.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 4:09 pm to SammyTiger
quote:
I also don't see 9-4 happening next year.
We were in the exact same spot as we were in 2008. 4 losses, going into our final game, with two underperforming QBs.
We lost 4 games in 2009, and would have lost 4 more in 2010, had Les kept Lee on the bench as he did in 2011, and again with Harris this year.
4 losses is well within Miles' capability with these QBs
Posted on 11/19/14 at 4:09 pm to BeeFense5
Only way he is going anywhere is if he were to finish with a losing record next year and dropping one of the terrible OOC games in the process.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 4:10 pm to TheMadeMan
That's what people said in 1980. It took 20 years to recover from that idiocy.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 4:11 pm to LesGeaux45
quote:
Stahp. Please stahp.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 4:12 pm to Mr. Wayne
So you want to pay 12 million then let Alleva pick your coach?
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