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re: Has Israel ever started a round of hostilities?

Posted on 11/19/14 at 10:17 pm to
Posted by MrCarton
Paradise Valley, MT
Member since Dec 2009
20231 posts
Posted on 11/19/14 at 10:17 pm to
quote:

Israel as a whole appears to be thinking long-term and is making diplomatic inroads with the Sunni autocrat axis (which I'll loosely define as Egypt, Saudi, UAE, and Jordan) as a hedge for when the West finally cuts bait.

This is thinking very long-term, as while I'm sure State already realizes this, I expect they'll get another generation of free support out of pure inertia among the US populace (and Congress especially). But our strategic interests don't really align any more.


Lot of good stuff In here. Jordan is a unique animal in the context of a sunni axis, and Saudi has significant barriers to a meaninful relationship with Israel (both economically and politically). Egypt has long held the strongest position with regards to Israel having advantages that aren't possible in other sunni states.

Good points man. You got me thinking.
Posted by MrCarton
Paradise Valley, MT
Member since Dec 2009
20231 posts
Posted on 11/19/14 at 10:36 pm to
quote:

GeauxLSUGeaux


Just wanted to apologize for insulting you earlier. Occasionally I lose my mind and take things the wrong way. I might disagree with you but that obviously doesn"t mean you are stupid. It doesn't contribute anything to the conversation either which at times can be pretty good.

Posted by stormy
Member since Sep 2014
578 posts
Posted on 11/19/14 at 10:58 pm to
Israel isn't that dam good! Just because they have money, doesn't make them right!
Posted by Iosh
Bureau of Interstellar Immigration
Member since Dec 2012
18941 posts
Posted on 11/20/14 at 12:39 am to
quote:

I fully expect sisi to take giant dumps on the US publicly, but behind closed doors he isn't exactly turning down help.
The question isn't whether he's turning down help, the question is whether he's actually acting in our interests because of it.

In Mubarak's prime, "acting in our interests" meant making nice with Israel and keeping a lid on the MB. But these days Israel and Egypt don't need our encouragement to work together. Egypt, or at least their military, is more concerned with keeping the MB under its boot than any kind of Nasser-era sentiment for Palestine. They are going to back Israel to the hilt at least where Gaza is concerned, especially after Hamas and MB made buddies during the Morsi regime.

What we actually need Egypt to do now is to be a moderating influence and a good-faith neutral party between the Israelis and the Palestinians, and that's where they seem to be taking a page from the Israeli strategy of "take the money and do what you want." LINK
This post was edited on 11/20/14 at 12:41 am
Posted by MrCarton
Paradise Valley, MT
Member since Dec 2009
20231 posts
Posted on 11/20/14 at 7:44 am to
quote:

The question isn't whether he's turning down help, the question is whether he's actually acting in our interests because of it.



Its all about leverage. If the US can provide a solution to a mutually recognized problem it adds leverage to the USGOVs position in a lot of different ways. The solution always comes with a price, and the price always increases over time.

Sisi made his deal and accepted the US terms because he needs help with his terrorism problem. The US is benefitting from this agreement in many ways that will never be obvious to the public. In the future the idea is that the leverage continually shifts to the side of the USGOV amd as that happens the benefits will be more obvious.

Jordan is an absolutely pristine example of how this concept works.

quote:


In Mubarak's prime, "acting in our interests" meant making nice with Israel and keeping a lid on the MB. But these days Israel and Egypt don't need our encouragement to work together. Egypt, or at least their military, is more concerned with keeping the MB under its boot than any kind of Nasser-era sentiment for Palestine. They are going to back Israel to the hilt at least where Gaza is concerned, especially after Hamas and MB made buddies during the Morsi regime.


Egypt isnt backing Israel in Palestine as much as they are trying to deal with a very similar problem. Those countries share two different visions of the future but along the way they are running into the same issue with sunni extremists.

We dont want Egypt working with Israel directly because we have zero leverage in Israel and will never have any for the foreseeable future . What we want is Egypt working with us so can obtain more leverage from them.

quote:

What we actually need Egypt to do now is to be a moderating influence and a good-faith neutral party between the Israelis and the Palestinians, and that's where they seem to be taking a page from the Israeli strategy of "take the money and do what you want.


Take it back a few posts when I mentioned that we froze Mubarak out because we knew the inroads to leverage in Egypt was through the military. Right now we are giving them money for specific things and they are complying. We are benefitting disproportionately in terms ofwhat we are spending in this relationship. if our programs are nurtured correctly, our influence will eventually expand to include some of the things your talking about. That concept really just highlights the symbiotic relationship of the DOS and DOD.

But back to my base argument: Israel is a terrible nation to ally because they hold all the cards right now so they make the deals.

The same cannot be said for any other country in the region (though KSA is damn close)
Posted by trackfan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
19691 posts
Posted on 11/20/14 at 8:21 am to
quote:

But back to my base argument: Israel is a terrible nation to ally because they hold all the cards right now so they make the deals.

The same cannot be said for any other country in the region (though KSA is damn close)

I don't think Israel holds all the cards, it's just that we refuse to play ours. If we cut Israel off tomorrow, it would suffer, buit not the U.S. Do you remember Bill Clinton's famous quote after the first time he met Netanyahu?
Posted by MrCarton
Paradise Valley, MT
Member since Dec 2009
20231 posts
Posted on 11/20/14 at 8:25 am to
quote:


I don't think Israel holds all the cards, it's just that we refuse to play ours.


And thats the ace in the hole.

quote:

If we cut Israel off tomorrow, it would suffer, buit not the U.S.


They would find a revenue stream to replace what we give them. They have a very diverse group of benefactors both above and below board. I agree that it would would hurt them and probably help us if we halted our assistance today.

Refresh my memory on the uncle Bill quote haha
Posted by trackfan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
19691 posts
Posted on 11/20/14 at 8:37 am to
quote:

They would find a revenue stream to replace what we give them. They have a very diverse group of benefactors both above and below board. I agree that it would would hurt them and probably help us if we halted our assistance today.

What about those U.N. votes? Do you realize how many times the U.S. has been on the short end of 14-1 votes at the U.N. Security Council to protect Israel?

quote:

Refresh my memory on the uncle Bill quote haha

"Who the frick does he think he is? Who's the fricking superpower here?"
Posted by sugar71
NOLA
Member since Jun 2012
9967 posts
Posted on 11/20/14 at 8:49 am to
quote:

What about those U.N. votes? Do you realize how many times the U.S. has been on the short end of 14-1 votes at the U.N. Security Council to protect Israel?

quote:
Refresh my memory on the uncle Bill quote haha

"Who the frick does he think he is? Who's the fricking superpower here?"


Like Charlie Brown for some reason I thought there was a slim chance that Susan Rice would not veto the UN condemnation if Illegal Israeli settlements back in 2011. 14-1 again & I was flat in my back like poor Charlie.


I know you remember the groveling over Netanyahu when he spoke to Congress. He's even made comments about American gullibility in the past.Mr Netanyahu knows that we are Israel's lapdogs.

I doubt whether the US can ever be an honest mediator on this issue & the World, Muslims especially, knows this as well.

Posted by Geauxrilla Ballz
S'port
Member since Jan 2009
672 posts
Posted on 11/20/14 at 11:10 am to
quote:

So the question - has Israel ever started this shite?


Yes. Israel started this shite. All of it.

Simply put, when I come take your house - I don't want to hear a peep. You have no right to resist.
Posted by Pettifogger
Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone
Member since Feb 2012
79189 posts
Posted on 11/20/14 at 11:20 am to
quote:

Simply put, when I come take your house - I don't want to hear a peep. You have no right to resist.



Don't find yourself on the wrong side of history then. This is historical revisionism where we're retrospectively imposing modern UN, international law values on a period where imperialism was still the paradigm. It no more belongs to Palestine than to Israel. However, Israel has it and can defend it, which is ultimately the only thing that matters.
Posted by Geauxrilla Ballz
S'port
Member since Jan 2009
672 posts
Posted on 11/20/14 at 11:29 am to
quote:

Don't find yourself on the wrong side of history then.


I would say the same to my fellow Americans who don't yet realize that Israel is an apartheid, facist state that exists because it controls our government from within.

Think about it - does Israel exemplify ANY of the values we hold as Americans? No. It is not a democracy, and every day the Israeli government inches closer and closer to accepting what it is - an apartheid terrorist state.

Accept it or don't accept it, but it is the truth. I was there last month, and the racism is stronger than it has ever been. The Israeli society is identifying with the "settler mentality" more and more each day.

I am confident that my opinion is on the correct side, considering I am in line with American values.

In no way do I condone the Hamas or Palestinian leadership, which never has been allowed to form legitimate representation (by Israel's design).

quote:

It no more belongs to Palestine than to Israel. However, Israel has it and can defend it, which is ultimately the only thing that matters.


Israel is occupying parts of the land illegally. The only way they get away with this is because they control our politicians to vote in Israel's favor.

There is definitely a way that people of all monotheistic religions can live in the Holy Land with equal rights and relative peace - but the more we support Israel, the further the world gets from that each day.

Israel wants peace on ITS terms - which is purging the land of non Jews (including Christians). Which is exactly what it has been doing for the last 60+ years. Ethnic cleansing and we support it as a country. Not me. Not many, and more people and governments are standing up if you haven't noticed.
This post was edited on 11/20/14 at 11:32 am
Posted by MrCarton
Paradise Valley, MT
Member since Dec 2009
20231 posts
Posted on 11/20/14 at 2:29 pm to
quote:

What about those U.N. votes? Do you realize how many times the U.S. has been on the short end of 14-1 votes at the U.N. Security Council to protect Israel?


Plenty of times I am sure. I'm not so sure that un security council decisions are a key component of Israels ability to continue to sew dischord and instability in the region.

They have massive resources and significant leverage throughout the west. Positive change in Israel will come from within. I just don't see anyone in a position to flex hard enough to alter Israel's course for the better.
Posted by Geauxrilla Ballz
S'port
Member since Jan 2009
672 posts
Posted on 11/20/14 at 10:51 pm to
Posted by trackfan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
19691 posts
Posted on 11/20/14 at 11:33 pm to
quote:

Plenty of times I am sure. I'm not so sure that un security council decisions are a key component of Israels ability to continue to sew dischord and instability in the region.

They have massive resources and significant leverage throughout the west. Positive change in Israel will come from within. I just don't see anyone in a position to flex hard enough to alter Israel's course for the better

I disagree. Meaningful sanctions would have the same effect on the apartheid regime in Israel that they had on the apartheid regime in South Africa. Just revisit Bush 41's showdown with Yitzhak Shamir over settlements to see what I'm talking about.
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