Grantland: Saints still favorite to win putrid NFC South, 7-9 most likely record

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1. New Orleans Saints
Average of 7.4 wins per simulation, won division 59.0 percent of time

A tiny bit of good news, New Orleans fans: Even though the Saints basically fell over after making it back to .500, they’re still the favorite to win the NFC South. They’re not even projected to make it to eight wins if you round up, yet they have the best win projection in the division, which is honestly quite terrifying, but I don’t suspect that Sean Payton & Co. will care about their record if they’re hosting a game in January. The Saints are projected to get past the Falcons and win the division because their play suggests they’re the best team on a per-snap basis in the NFC South.

While there wasn’t a five-win champion in the NFC South through my 1,000 simulations, it is theoretically possible. Assume that NFC South teams lose each of their games against opponents from outside the division. And then let’s say that the Bucs beat the Panthers and Saints in their two remaining divisional games, leaving Tampa Bay at 4-12. That would essentially leave Atlanta, Carolina, and New Orleans in a round-robin against one another for the division. If all three of those teams went 1-1, that would leave the Panthers at 4-11-1 and the Falcons and Saints tied for the division title at 5-11, with the Falcons winning the South via tiebreaker. The chances of a five-win division champ are exceedingly small, but it’s not impossible.

Even if the division champ manages to eventually make its way to a mighty six wins, is the guaranteed playoff spot for a divisional winner something that should be legislated out of the game? I don’t think so. Yes, there’s a decent chance that the NFC South finishes with a division winner whose record is under .500. That’s also not going to happen very frequently, and when it does, it’s not proof that a team is hopeless against better competition. Remember that we went through this same scenario in 2010, when the Seahawks had to beat the Rams in the final game of the regular season to finish 7-9 and claim the NFC West crown. Sure enough, they went out and beat the Saints at home in the wild-card round. If this happens once every five years or so, we’ll be OK.

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