College football pick'em: Help me with strategy, please.

Ok, this is the 2nd year I've been in this league. Prize pool is $3,000 and I'm sitting in 3rd place heading into this week, 2 wins from being in 1st.

Last year I came in 2nd, pretty much using the "eye test," but this strategy has burned me a bit this year.

I'll probably continue to break things down myself in the SEC games and other big matchups, but what are some solid ways to break down the matchups that I don't feel confident in?

There are 13 games to pick each week, 4 or 5 being between small schools that usually have very small spreads. We pick the straight up winner though.