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Started By
Message
Washington Post: Non citizens could decide the November elections
Posted on 10/25/14 at 3:52 am
Posted on 10/25/14 at 3:52 am
By Jesse Richman and David Eeanest October 24, 2014
Headline actually says : Could non - citizens decide the November elections ? But I am positive that headline was an editors choice because these gentleman knock this whole illegal voting is a myth out of the fricken park.
Here goes the story.
Could control of the Senate in 2014 be decided by illegal votes cast by non-citizens ? Some argue that incidents of voting by non-citizens are so rare as to be inconsequential, with efforts to block fraud a screen for an agenda to prevent poor voters from exercising the franchise, while others define such incidents as a threat to democracy itself. Both sides depend more heavily on anecdotes than data.
In a forthcoming article in the journal Electoral Studies, we bring real data from big social science survey datasets to bear on the question of whether, to what extent, and for whom non - citizens vote in U.S. elections. Most non-citizens do not register, let alone vote. But enough do that their participation can change the outcome of close races.
Our data comes from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES). Its large number of observations ( 32,800 in 2008 and 55,400 in 2010 ) provide significant samples of the non-immigrant sub-population. With 339 non-citizens respondents in 2008 and 489 in 2010. For the 2008 CCES, we also attempted to match respondents to voter files so that we could verify whether they actually voted.
How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections ? More than 14 percent of non - citizens in both 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. Furthermore, some of these non-citizens voted. Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent of non-citizens voted in 2010. ( my[sec crazy] pov, is if that number climbed back up in 2012 then the Obama camp clearly courted illegal votes )
Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats ( Obama won 80 percent of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample ), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections. Non-citizen vote could have given senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health-care-reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress. Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) won election in 2008 with a victory margin of 312 votes. Votes by just 0.65 percent of Minnesota non - citizens could account for this margin. It is also possible that non-citizen votes were responsible for Obama's 2008 victory in North Carolina. Obama won the state by 14,177 votes, so a turnout of 5.1 of North Carolina's adult non-citizens would have provided this victory margin.
-----------------------
Voter fraud isn't happening, any liberal who still says this and/or is against NEW VOTER LAWS TO CURB THIS B.S. is an idiot who has no concerns for our constitutional rights and/or protections.
Florida 2000, was almost stolen and the whole election, according to this data. Of course this data only used measurables on 2008 and 2010, but this crap didn't just start.
This B.S. needs rectifying now.
More than14 percent of non - citizens are registered to vote.
I will guarantee to you if they are registered, they are voting. And how many more are voting in dead peoples stead, with democratic polling officials knowledge.
Headline actually says : Could non - citizens decide the November elections ? But I am positive that headline was an editors choice because these gentleman knock this whole illegal voting is a myth out of the fricken park.
Here goes the story.
Could control of the Senate in 2014 be decided by illegal votes cast by non-citizens ? Some argue that incidents of voting by non-citizens are so rare as to be inconsequential, with efforts to block fraud a screen for an agenda to prevent poor voters from exercising the franchise, while others define such incidents as a threat to democracy itself. Both sides depend more heavily on anecdotes than data.
In a forthcoming article in the journal Electoral Studies, we bring real data from big social science survey datasets to bear on the question of whether, to what extent, and for whom non - citizens vote in U.S. elections. Most non-citizens do not register, let alone vote. But enough do that their participation can change the outcome of close races.
Our data comes from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES). Its large number of observations ( 32,800 in 2008 and 55,400 in 2010 ) provide significant samples of the non-immigrant sub-population. With 339 non-citizens respondents in 2008 and 489 in 2010. For the 2008 CCES, we also attempted to match respondents to voter files so that we could verify whether they actually voted.
How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections ? More than 14 percent of non - citizens in both 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. Furthermore, some of these non-citizens voted. Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent of non-citizens voted in 2010. ( my[sec crazy] pov, is if that number climbed back up in 2012 then the Obama camp clearly courted illegal votes )
Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats ( Obama won 80 percent of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample ), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections. Non-citizen vote could have given senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health-care-reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress. Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) won election in 2008 with a victory margin of 312 votes. Votes by just 0.65 percent of Minnesota non - citizens could account for this margin. It is also possible that non-citizen votes were responsible for Obama's 2008 victory in North Carolina. Obama won the state by 14,177 votes, so a turnout of 5.1 of North Carolina's adult non-citizens would have provided this victory margin.
-----------------------
Voter fraud isn't happening, any liberal who still says this and/or is against NEW VOTER LAWS TO CURB THIS B.S. is an idiot who has no concerns for our constitutional rights and/or protections.
Florida 2000, was almost stolen and the whole election, according to this data. Of course this data only used measurables on 2008 and 2010, but this crap didn't just start.
This B.S. needs rectifying now.
More than14 percent of non - citizens are registered to vote.
I will guarantee to you if they are registered, they are voting. And how many more are voting in dead peoples stead, with democratic polling officials knowledge.
This post was edited on 10/25/14 at 4:08 am
8
Posted on 10/25/14 at 4:20 am to S.E.C. Crazy
There are obvious limitations to our research, which one should take account of when interpreting the results. Although the CCES sample is large, the non-citizen portion of the sample is modest, with the attendant uncertainty associated with sampling error. We analyze only 828 self-reported non-citizens. Self-reports of citizen status might also be a source of error, although the appendix of our paper shows that the racial, geographic, and attitudinal characteristics of non-citizens (and non-citizen voters) are consistent with their self-reported status.
Another possible limitation is the matching process conducted by Catalyst to verify registration and turnout drops many non-citizen respondents who cannot be matched. Our adjusted estimate assumes the implication of a “registered” or “voted” response among those who Catalyst could not match is the same as for those whom it could. If one questions this assumption, one might focus only on those non-citizens with a reported and validated vote. This is the second line of the table.
"We also find that one of the favorite policies advocated by conservatives to prevent voter fraud appears strikingly ineffective. Nearly three quarters of the non-citizens who indicated they were asked to provide photo identification at the polls claimed to have subsequently voted." :rotflmao:
Another possible limitation is the matching process conducted by Catalyst to verify registration and turnout drops many non-citizen respondents who cannot be matched. Our adjusted estimate assumes the implication of a “registered” or “voted” response among those who Catalyst could not match is the same as for those whom it could. If one questions this assumption, one might focus only on those non-citizens with a reported and validated vote. This is the second line of the table.
"We also find that one of the favorite policies advocated by conservatives to prevent voter fraud appears strikingly ineffective. Nearly three quarters of the non-citizens who indicated they were asked to provide photo identification at the polls claimed to have subsequently voted."
:rotflmao:
Posted on 10/25/14 at 4:36 am to S.E.C. Crazy
Posted on 10/25/14 at 4:38 am to BuckyBadger
quote:You think illegal voting is funny?
BuckyBadger
This post was edited on 10/25/14 at 4:39 am
Posted on 10/25/14 at 4:45 am to NC_Tigah
quote:I think proposing ineffective solutions that do more harm than good is hilarious.
You think illegal voting is funny?
Perhaps you need to read the last four paragraphs again. There are so many uncertainties in their methodology that they concede that deriving any conclusion is pretty much impossible.
Posted on 10/25/14 at 4:51 am to BuckyBadger
The joke is on you buddy, I don' t give a damn how or what legislation has to be passed to make sure illegals do not vote.You seem to be stumped by their opinion that illegal votes don't seem to be stopped even with I.D.'s. I could give a crap if that is are isn't happening, we need to end this B.S. by any means necessary.
Getting competent people to run the polling stations would be a great start and getting rid of local political hacks who are winking at improprieties. In some polling stations over 100 percent of registered voters voted. Sure a lot are getting by when licenses are required, because you have crooked dems heading the polls.
You laughing at the fact that our elections are basically being decided in some cases by illegals, shows how much disdain you have for the American ways of honor and dignity.
I don't think these two guys set out to prove the point they proved I think they set out to disprove the Republican mantra that illegal non citizens ( notice they wouldn't call them illegals and non citizens? ) were having impact on elections. But the data proved Republicans were correct. So the reporters, imho, were throwing their bosses and dems a bone with the I.D. mention.
I will bet your sweet azz something CAN BE DONE to curb this B.S. I could fix this crap in 30 minutes. A machine that reads a card and a person needing a pin number that matches to vote. A FRICKEN PIN NUMBER TO VOTE !!!!!!
Anyone that says we can't stop illegal voting is a liar
Anyone that says there aren't plenty of illegal votes are FOS.
The reason dems want extended voting periods and mail in ballots is it gives them greater chances of cheating.
Scum is always scum.
Getting competent people to run the polling stations would be a great start and getting rid of local political hacks who are winking at improprieties. In some polling stations over 100 percent of registered voters voted. Sure a lot are getting by when licenses are required, because you have crooked dems heading the polls.
You laughing at the fact that our elections are basically being decided in some cases by illegals, shows how much disdain you have for the American ways of honor and dignity.
I don't think these two guys set out to prove the point they proved I think they set out to disprove the Republican mantra that illegal non citizens ( notice they wouldn't call them illegals and non citizens? ) were having impact on elections. But the data proved Republicans were correct. So the reporters, imho, were throwing their bosses and dems a bone with the I.D. mention.
I will bet your sweet azz something CAN BE DONE to curb this B.S. I could fix this crap in 30 minutes. A machine that reads a card and a person needing a pin number that matches to vote. A FRICKEN PIN NUMBER TO VOTE !!!!!!
Anyone that says we can't stop illegal voting is a liar
Anyone that says there aren't plenty of illegal votes are FOS.
The reason dems want extended voting periods and mail in ballots is it gives them greater chances of cheating.
Scum is always scum.
This post was edited on 10/25/14 at 5:10 am
Posted on 10/25/14 at 5:15 am to S.E.C. Crazy
GOP should buy national ads noting it is illegal for them to vote and that ICE agents will be at some polling places.
Posted on 10/25/14 at 5:20 am to BuckyBadger
You didn't answer the question.
Posted on 10/25/14 at 5:22 am to S.E.C. Crazy
quote:
I will guarantee to you if they are registered, they are voting. And how many more are voting in dead peoples stead, with democratic polling officials knowledge.
Probably, but are you suggesting voter fraud only happens with Dems?
Posted on 10/25/14 at 5:29 am to BuckyBadger
quote:Each of those four paragraphs deal with illegal voting. You seem to favor the prospect, as it might provide one camp a deciding advantage. Your casual acceptance of a corrupt process is disturbing.
Perhaps you need to read the last four paragraphs again.
Posted on 10/25/14 at 5:36 am to NC_Tigah
He would probably show a little more concern if non-citizens were clearly voting republican.
Posted on 10/25/14 at 5:51 am to StraightCashHomey21
quote:The "suggestion" is voter fraud corrupts the process!
Probably, but are you suggesting voter fraud only happens with Dems?
The "suggestion" is Democrats oppose seeking solutions, and correcting the corruption.
Draw your own conclusions as to rationale.
Posted on 10/25/14 at 6:05 am to StraightCashHomey21
quote:
Probably, but are you suggesting voter fraud only happens with Dems?
Tough to argue it is exclusively Democrats engaging in fraud. Easy to conclude the vast majority of the fraud are Democrat votes. This is a 100+ year old story, going back to the political bosses of the early 20th century and before.
Posted on 10/25/14 at 6:44 am to S.E.C. Crazy
I'm convinced that non citizens played a big role in the 2012 POTUS election, along with dead citizens, and fabricated voting tallies. I refuse to believe that the majority of Americans wanted Barrack Hussein Obama back in office for another four years.
This is why I'm convinced that the liberal agenda needs to be eradicated immediately. Every American citizen, regardless of their party affiliation, should reject and revolt at the open borders and futile voting system we currently have. It is simply pathetic that someone can come out and acknowledge that we have a flawed voting system when we are forcing the same democracy and voting system on countries in the Middle East the last 12 years. Americans no longer stand for anything and fall for everything. This is not how this country was founded and not what got us to being the Super Power of the world prior to the Second World War.
This is why I'm convinced that the liberal agenda needs to be eradicated immediately. Every American citizen, regardless of their party affiliation, should reject and revolt at the open borders and futile voting system we currently have. It is simply pathetic that someone can come out and acknowledge that we have a flawed voting system when we are forcing the same democracy and voting system on countries in the Middle East the last 12 years. Americans no longer stand for anything and fall for everything. This is not how this country was founded and not what got us to being the Super Power of the world prior to the Second World War.
Posted on 10/25/14 at 7:19 am to S.E.C. Crazy
This should be huge but won't go anywhere. I'm shocked they published it.
I looked at the study itself, under the umbrella of Harvard. It has dates other than 2008 and 2010.
LINK
I looked at the study itself, under the umbrella of Harvard. It has dates other than 2008 and 2010.
LINK
Posted on 10/25/14 at 7:30 am to StraightCashHomey21
quote:
Probably, but are you suggesting voter fraud only happens with Dems?
Uh yes - yes I am.
Vote fraud is a staple of the DEM 'get out the vote' effort. For every instance of an illegal GOP vote, there are 1000 illegal DEM votes.
It is what they do. It is in their DNA.
Posted on 10/25/14 at 7:46 am to ChineseBandit58
We should do everything we can to stop voter fraud
This post was edited on 10/25/14 at 8:44 am
Posted on 10/25/14 at 8:29 am to SquirrelyBama
quote:
Did they change everything for past immigrants
Today, immigration is just a 'get out the vote' tactic for DEMs.
Immigration is supposed to be designed to bring in quality people who want to become Americans - not as just another ploy to dump a more and more government dependent sub cultures whose votes can be purchased for a pittance.
Posted on 10/25/14 at 8:29 am to S.E.C. Crazy
I thought voter fraud didn't exist? 
Posted on 10/25/14 at 8:42 am to TN Bhoy
I'm all for others coming here to live the America dream. Immigrants have been a huge part of America's growth in the past, and my mom is an immigrant who did things the legal way. What seems to the different than past immigrants. Is those past immigrants adapted to America's culture, but many of the new immigrants want America to change to the country they just left (Cake eating with some Ice Cream comes to mind). I get that, but that's like staying at someones house, and then expecting everyone to arrange their household to you. Where I come from, this is considered rude and selfish.
Does a immigrant have the right to expect everyone to change to their ways? I sure wouldn't think this way as someones house guest. Would you? Seems past immigrants understood how considerate and inconsiderate these behaviors were, but maybe I'm ignorant to the situation, and it just seems this way on the surface. Who knows, but it sure seems many immigrants today want America to change to them instead of trying to adapt to our society. One example., English to Spanish. I felt like I was in a foreign country in Miami ten years ago when I was there. Thsi wasn't a section of town either, this was almost anywhere I went in south Florida. Our country making it easier for foreigners to read things is enabling many of them to not learn English. That's pretty much common sense thinking right here. Right? Makes me wonder if my Mom wouldn't have learned English or English would've taken her longer than she took to get English down. If the US made everything in her native language instead of her havign to learn English in a new country. Chances are it would've taken my Mom longer, and this seems like a natural human behavior.
I feel bad for the people who've been waiting to become legal citizens but we've gotta make everyone here legal. At the exact same time we've got to shut the borders down so only legal immigrants are here moving forth. Thsi way we don't ever have these problems again. Why can't Washington do such a simple thing? This has become old and tiresome from a rookies political point of view. Sure seems both parties are to consumed with gaining & keeping power rather than looking out for our best interests. Both parties have done OK things in the past, but I'm afraid this era in time won't be remembered to kindly. Both parties not being able to put this childish partisan fighting aside for the betterment of the country might be everyone's legacy. Shoot, the people across the US aren't innocent from all this childish bickering either though.
Boy, politics are a mess
I see why some don't follow this stuff
Does a immigrant have the right to expect everyone to change to their ways? I sure wouldn't think this way as someones house guest. Would you? Seems past immigrants understood how considerate and inconsiderate these behaviors were, but maybe I'm ignorant to the situation, and it just seems this way on the surface. Who knows, but it sure seems many immigrants today want America to change to them instead of trying to adapt to our society. One example., English to Spanish. I felt like I was in a foreign country in Miami ten years ago when I was there. Thsi wasn't a section of town either, this was almost anywhere I went in south Florida. Our country making it easier for foreigners to read things is enabling many of them to not learn English. That's pretty much common sense thinking right here. Right? Makes me wonder if my Mom wouldn't have learned English or English would've taken her longer than she took to get English down. If the US made everything in her native language instead of her havign to learn English in a new country. Chances are it would've taken my Mom longer, and this seems like a natural human behavior.
I feel bad for the people who've been waiting to become legal citizens but we've gotta make everyone here legal. At the exact same time we've got to shut the borders down so only legal immigrants are here moving forth. Thsi way we don't ever have these problems again. Why can't Washington do such a simple thing? This has become old and tiresome from a rookies political point of view. Sure seems both parties are to consumed with gaining & keeping power rather than looking out for our best interests. Both parties have done OK things in the past, but I'm afraid this era in time won't be remembered to kindly. Both parties not being able to put this childish partisan fighting aside for the betterment of the country might be everyone's legacy. Shoot, the people across the US aren't innocent from all this childish bickering either though.
Boy, politics are a mess
I see why some don't follow this stuff
This post was edited on 10/25/14 at 8:46 am
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