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Rasmussen Kansas poll: Orman +5 over Roberts
Posted on 10/24/14 at 4:24 pm
Posted on 10/24/14 at 4:24 pm
5
Posted on 10/24/14 at 4:28 pm to Jim Rockford
I've got to disregard that poll, as it said that ninety percent of the registered voters were "certain to vote this election".
Posted on 10/24/14 at 4:29 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:We will see.
Rasmussen Kansas poll: Orman +5 over Roberts
LINK
Outside the margin of error.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 4:32 pm to Jim Rockford
Had me going until this
quote:
Ninety percent (90%) of the state’s voters say they are certain to vote in this election, and among these voters, it’s Orman 50%, Roberts 46%.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 4:50 pm to Homesick Tiger
Just for shite and giggles from the same source:
quote:
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has crossed the 50% mark now in his bid for reelection in Kentucky.
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Kentucky Voters finds McConnell with 52% support to Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes’ 44%. Two percent (2%) prefer another candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
quote:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Arkansas Voters shows Cotton with 47% of the vote to Pryor’s 44%. Four percent (4%) like some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) remain undecided.
quote:
Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu has edged slightly ahead of Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy in Louisiana’s nail biter of a Senate race, but Cassidy holds a wide advantage if the race goes to a runoff.
Landrieu now picks up 41% of the vote to Cassidy’s 38% in the latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Louisiana Voters. Another Republican, Tea Party favorite Rob Maness, earns 14% support, while two percent (2%) prefer one of the other candidates in the race. Five percent (5%) are undecided.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 5:00 pm to Homesick Tiger
quote:
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has crossed the 50% mark now in his bid for reelection in Kentucky.
The polling period for that was 9 days ago and the poll was released a week ago.
quote:
f Likely Arkansas Voters shows Cotton with 47% of the vote to Pryor’s 44%.
This one was conducted 9-11 days ago and was released 8 days ago.
quote:
Landrieu now picks up 41% of the vote to Cassidy’s 38% in the latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Louisiana Voters.
This one was conducted 10-11 days ago and released 9 days ago.
I point this out because all of the tightly-contested Senate and Governor's races are extremely fluid, momentum swinging back and forth, and these results are already pretty much outdated.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 5:05 pm to NHTIGER
quote:
I point this out because all of the tightly-contested Senate and Governor's races are extremely fluid, momentum swinging back and forth, and these results are already pretty much outdated.
Good points. Basically what you're saying that polls at this time aren't worth their weight in ink.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 5:19 pm to Homesick Tiger
quote:
Basically what you're saying that polls at this time aren't worth their weight in ink.
Not entirely, some do show actual trends the past two weeks, it's just that the polls this year are fluctuating greatly between pollsters, even when done on the same day. So many of the races are just not predictable, more so than in any year I can recall. Just today, for example, three different Georgia polls were released and one shows Nunn up by 3 (47-44), another shows Perdue up by 2 (44-42), and the third one shows them dead even at at 47-47. Same for governor race, one showing Carter up by 2 (48-46) and Deal leading in the other two (46-41 and 48-45). All released today. Who can a reader conclude is the leader in either race?
Posted on 10/24/14 at 6:00 pm to NHTIGER
Yep.
The long left-loved FiveThirtyEight’s Senate Forecast says:
Republicans have a 60.7% chance of winning a majority.
Democrats have a 39.3% chance of keeping the majority,
while there is a nearly equal (34%) chance Republicans will run away with 53 or more seats and Democrats will control 47 or less seats.
The long left-loved FiveThirtyEight’s Senate Forecast says:
Republicans have a 60.7% chance of winning a majority.
Democrats have a 39.3% chance of keeping the majority,
while there is a nearly equal (34%) chance Republicans will run away with 53 or more seats and Democrats will control 47 or less seats.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 6:14 pm to NC_Tigah
Ten days can still change a lot - but if had to lay a wager today. I'd bet on a 50-48 GOP lead when all of the results are in from November 4th - with both LA and GA going to runoffs and Dems needing to win both to hold control (via the Biden tiebreaker). Clearly, making any kind of prediction right now is risky business, so that would be a very small wager on my part.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 6:21 pm to NHTIGER
I can't see Kansas going Dem, unless it's Tea Partiers thinking they are going to punish the GOP establishment.
Orman is going to caucus with the Dems, they should hit him over the head with that, again and again.
Orman is going to caucus with the Dems, they should hit him over the head with that, again and again.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 6:28 pm to redandright
quote:
I can't see Kansas going Dem, unless it's Tea Partiers thinking they are going to punish the GOP establishment.
I agree with that.
quote:
Orman is going to caucus with the Dems, they should hit him over the head with that, again and again.
And I agree with that.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 6:29 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
margin of error.
quote:
Rasmussen
Posted on 10/24/14 at 6:51 pm to Roaad
After 2012 polls can suck it.
Technical I know and with no charts but I'm done. You can't watch TV or listen to any talk radio without some mention of a poll.
Technical I know and with no charts but I'm done. You can't watch TV or listen to any talk radio without some mention of a poll.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 7:21 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Republicans have a 60.7% chance of winning a majority.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 7:29 pm to Wild Thang
I'm carefully optimistic about 53, perhaps 54.
I am not so optimistic about the GOP mentality to lead.
Major advantage I see is the alliance between McConnell and Paul, and where that might lead Congress.
I am not so optimistic about the GOP mentality to lead.
Major advantage I see is the alliance between McConnell and Paul, and where that might lead Congress.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 8:06 pm to Jim Rockford
I am not saying that Orman is not ahead or can't win, but you have to discount the Rasmussen polls. They are way off compared to other, better polls. Moreover, Rasmussen used to have a strong Republican lean, but after being so far if in other elections they have changed the polling process and have moved too far to the other side. Rasmussen used to be an outlier on the right, now it is an outlier on the left.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 8:13 pm to lsuprof
quote:Excepting the last election where Romney's GOTV campaign collapsed horribly and unpredictably, Rasmussen was amongst the most accurate polls out there.
Rasmussen used to be an outlier on the right
Posted on 10/24/14 at 8:26 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
I am not so optimistic about the GOP mentality to lead.
True.
I just want Reid to not be majority leader.
ETA: I want bills brought to the god damn floor and voted on. Veto or no, I want these POS people on record.
This post was edited on 10/24/14 at 8:28 pm
Posted on 10/24/14 at 8:37 pm to NHTIGER
quote:
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has crossed the 50% mark now in his bid for reelection in Kentucky.
The polling period for that was 9 days ago and the poll was released a week ago.
I am willing to bet McConnell's lead is much bigger today.
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