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Started By
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re: New Colorado senate PPP poll: Dem incumbent down by 3 (47-44)
Posted on 10/21/14 at 2:23 pm to NHTIGER
Posted on 10/21/14 at 2:23 pm to NHTIGER
quote:
Guru Nate Silver is on record as saying they lean toward "Democrats" (as opposed to "the left")
Is there any difference?
Well not after November 4, anyway.
1
Posted on 10/21/14 at 2:28 pm to redandright
quote:
NHtiger, has early voting statistics told us anything important yet?
NHtiger might have some more insight. But the original report had 28k votes in with GOP +15.0
Now its 80k in with GOP ballots +15.4.
Both of those reports are before in person voting which started yesterday.
I expect an update either today or tomorrow.
Early voting in Colorado usually leans R but I would expect it tighten a lot with the addition of in person voting.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:27 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
NHtiger, has early voting statistics told us anything important yet?
As many know, I stay extremely well-informed on elections in all of the states and use many resources, especially local newspapers and television stations from the various states.
However, when it comes to the early voting statistics in these 2014 races, I yield to TN_Tigers as the best source of information. I see he has already responded to you in this thread. My "politics" plate is overflowing, and I for one appreciate his in-depth contributions in recent days on the subject of early voting. A tip of my cap to ya, TN_Tigers.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:41 pm to NHTIGER
quote:
A tip of my cap to ya
Likewise
I'll keep passing along any info that I get. I should be around for election night as well with more stats.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:53 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Udall's been in a tailspin ever since his campaign melted down after the atrocity of having his dad called out for running for president.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 4:12 pm to The Boat
I'm surprised that his camp hasn't managed him better than this considering he has gaffed himself into a corner over the past few months.
I remember when he was considered to be a likely Dem hold, before Gardner got into the race, because it was thought the War On Womeb BS would work for him.
I remember when he was considered to be a likely Dem hold, before Gardner got into the race, because it was thought the War On Womeb BS would work for him.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 5:41 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Scott Brown is walking into the Lion's Den tonight.
His debate with Jeanne Shaheen, just 20 miles down Rte. 3 from me, is being moderated by NBC's Chuck Todd, and the three-person panel is made up of well-established liberals from the state's most liberal paper (Concord Monitor), the UNH political science Dept. and the notoriously liberal New England News Network.
Facing those four, a "tie" would definitely be a win for Scott Brown.
His debate with Jeanne Shaheen, just 20 miles down Rte. 3 from me, is being moderated by NBC's Chuck Todd, and the three-person panel is made up of well-established liberals from the state's most liberal paper (Concord Monitor), the UNH political science Dept. and the notoriously liberal New England News Network.
Facing those four, a "tie" would definitely be a win for Scott Brown.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 5:47 pm to NHTIGER
quote:
Scott Brown is walking into the Lion's Den tonight. His debate with Jeanne Shaheen
Thanks for the heads up..i'll have to give it a watch. Chuck Todd is about as bad as it gets.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 5:54 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
If you look at this poll as well as others, Reps increase by a few points once pollsters switch from registered voters to likely voters. They factor in turn out of mid term elections which have traditionally been anti-incumbent like in 2010. Rassmussen and Gallup were way off in 2012 because they based their likely voter model on 2010 rather than 2008. Bottom line is unless the Dems have a massive and successful GOTV push like in 2008 and 2012, they'll lose. This race is still within the MOE but history shows races like this one go to the opposition.
This post was edited on 10/21/14 at 5:55 pm
Posted on 10/21/14 at 6:11 pm to Vegas Bengal
quote:
Rassmussen and Gallup were way off in 2012 because they based their likely voter model on 2010 rather than 2008. Bottom line is unless the Dems have a massive and successful GOTV push like in 2008 and 2012, they'll lose. This race is still within the MOE but history shows races like this one go to the opposition.
Agree..2012 was the GOP saying it was going to be like 2010 and the Dems saying it was going to be like 2008. Dems were obviously right.
This time it seems to be playing out where the GOP is saying they have better early vote mobilization which they think translates into more enthusiasm.
Dems seem to be doing well in new registrants so they think its another year of massive GOTV for them. They also counter that the GOP successful early vote is going to be cutting into their election day voter numbers.
I dont see the races breaking the next 2 weeks. They might shift a point or 2. Obviously the incumbents at 40-44 are in deep trouble.
Iowa, where there is alot of data, is interesting. GOP is doing way better than 2010 in early voting. Dems are doing really well in new ballots, especially the last 4 days.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 6:13 pm to TN_Tigers
quote:
8:00 - 9:00 PM Eastern. Can watch it here:
Ive caught about all debates except NH and LA. I've thought Gardner and Ernst have done well where Tillis hasnt.
I agree a tie would be good for Brown..and probably the best he can hope for.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 6:44 pm to TN_Tigers
quote:
Agree..2012 was the GOP saying it was going to be like 2010 and the Dems saying it was going to be like 2008. Dems were obviously right.
Presidential Elections favor Dems due to turnout, especially under Obama where the African American vote mobilized at the highest rate in history. Midterms they likely won't get out and vote at the same rate, but with social media who knows.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 6:46 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Democrats done. It's over.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 6:53 pm to TN_Tigers
Republicans must defend
Kentucky
Kansas
South Dakota
Georgia
Republican Gains
West Virginia
Montana
Alaska
Arkansas
Louisiana
Democrat Firewall
Iowa
Colorado
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Kentucky
Kansas
South Dakota
Georgia
Republican Gains
West Virginia
Montana
Alaska
Arkansas
Louisiana
Democrat Firewall
Iowa
Colorado
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Posted on 10/21/14 at 7:19 pm to TOKEN
Senator Udall will be re-elected in Colorado. For some reason, Democrats outperform polling in that state. Udall will get 51.5 to 52.5% of the total vote.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 7:21 pm to Erin Go Bragh
quote:
Watched the Udall interview where he couldn't name three books he's read. Embarrassing.
Mayyyyyyyyyyyybe the question caught him off guard and he drew a blank. I can give him a little of a pass on this one if a certain time frame was implied. Might take me a minute to come up with three even though I've done a lot of reading over the years.
quote:
Another one who needs to go.
I definitely agree with this.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 7:31 pm to GeorgeWest
Senator Udall will be re-elected in Colorado. For some reason, Democrats outperform polling in that state. Udall will get 51.5 to 52.5% of the total vote.
Agree..thats probably worth 2-3%..I think PPP was the only poll in 2012 to overestimate Obama's turnout. I was in CO in 2012 and I wasnt feeling the normal pro GOP feelings in some of the Denver suburbs like I was expecting.
There are more than 2 candidates so Idk about this..I see Gardner getting more than 43-44.
I actually think this will be the closest race..right there with IA and GA.
quote:
Democrats outperform polling in that state
Agree..thats probably worth 2-3%..I think PPP was the only poll in 2012 to overestimate Obama's turnout. I was in CO in 2012 and I wasnt feeling the normal pro GOP feelings in some of the Denver suburbs like I was expecting.
quote:
Udall will get 51.5 to 52.5% of the total vote.
There are more than 2 candidates so Idk about this..I see Gardner getting more than 43-44.
quote:
Senator Udall will be re-elected in Colorado
I actually think this will be the closest race..right there with IA and GA.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 7:45 pm to TN_Tigers
I agree, Udall has a great ground game left by Obama campaign. The same is true with Iowa. I think the GOP hopes lie in North Carolina. Hagan has to get 20% of AA turnout and I have no idea how she can do this? Everytime I run the numbers in NC I have her @ 48-49%.
GOP has ground advantage in Georgia, Kentucky, Kansas, South Dakata
The democrats need to hold 3/4 Iowa, Colorado, NC, New Hampshire
They need 1/4 on Republican Seats to hold Senate.
GOP has ground advantage in Georgia, Kentucky, Kansas, South Dakata
The democrats need to hold 3/4 Iowa, Colorado, NC, New Hampshire
They need 1/4 on Republican Seats to hold Senate.
This post was edited on 10/21/14 at 7:46 pm
Posted on 10/21/14 at 7:54 pm to TOKEN
Orman- Kansas
Pressler- South Dakota
King- Maine
Could all jump ship either way if they win . They are already planning on throwing control for power if they win.
Pressler- South Dakota
King- Maine
Could all jump ship either way if they win . They are already planning on throwing control for power if they win.
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